It is pointed out that the basic production capacity of pigs should be stabilized to avoid ups and downs in production.
Analysts estimate that the spot price of pork will be low before and high after this year, and there will be a considerable increase in the second half of the year. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises and regional strong enterprises in the listed pig enterprises.
It is particularly important that the pig price is expected to be low before and high after.
The terminal of Oriental Fortune CHOICE shows that the monthly pig futures contract price has been separated from the situation of high before and low after, and there has been an obvious phenomenon of low before and high after.
As of 3: 00 p.m. Beijing time on March 2nd, compared with the closing price of the pig futures contract in March, the resolution of the closing price of 1 in September and1in the following year was about 48.4 1% and 50.82% to 59.94% higher, respectively, which may indicate that the spot pig is expected to slowly get out of the trough in the second half of this year.
Qin Duogui, an analyst in the hog industry of Guoxin Futures, analyzed that the monthly contract price of hog futures was far weaker and stronger, which released a positive signal of stabilization. Although the transaction price of the May contract as the main contract is still lower than the entry capital price of the big farm.
However, the contracts in September 1 1 and the following year 1 performed strongly, and the forward contracts increased greatly, indicating that the market is optimistic about the process of pig de-capacity.
The pig cycle lasts for a long time, and pig enterprises suffer a wide range, so the opportunity of market recovery is particularly valuable. It is the most important thing to prepare for stabilizing the production capacity of live pigs.
It is pointed out that focusing on the key indicators such as the number of fertile sows and the number of farms (households) in the range, the obligation of capacity regulation should be implemented at all levels, and long-term support policies such as environmental protection, loans and insurance should be stabilized to ensure that the number of fertile sows is stable at about 46.5438+0 million.
The market has released a wake-up signal, and brokerage institutions are also optimistic about the head enterprises and regional strong enterprises in the pig sector.
Wei Hongmei, an analyst at Dongguan Securities, said that it is estimated that the issue of agriculture, rural areas and farmers will remain one of the main topics in the two sessions in 2022.
Wei Hongmei recalled the past: During the 20021two sessions, delegates and committee members put forward a series of suggestions on the livestock and poultry breeding sector.
Among them, the subsidy policy for R&D and promotion of major national breeding pig projects will be introduced as soon as possible to promote the development of seed companies in the direction of integration of breeding, breeding and promotion.
This year's No.1 document also proposed a long-term support policy to stabilize pig production.
It is expected that in 2022, the two sessions will put forward relevant policy guidelines according to the actual situation of aquaculture in China, so as to promote the healthy development of aquaculture in China.
It is good for leading enterprises and regional strong enterprises in listed pig enterprises.