Current location - Trademark Inquiry Complete Network - Futures platform - 2. How does China "build a pool" under the pressure of hot money?
2. How does China "build a pool" under the pressure of hot money?
After the Federal Reserve announced the second quantitative easing policy, emerging market countries, including China, were further worried about the flood of liquidity. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, stressed that China has taken "total hedging" measures to deal with hot money. "Short-term speculative funds have come in, and I hope to put them in a' pool' instead of letting them flood into the whole real economy of China. When it needs to retreat, it will be released from the pool, which can greatly reduce the impact of abnormal capital flow on China's economy. " The expression of "Chi" immediately attracted attention. Because there is no exact explanation for the operation principle of "pool" and its impact on the market, it has aroused heated discussion in the industry. "Although regulators can strengthen the control of hot money through strict follow-up audits and restrictions on foreign exchange lending, on the one hand, the cost is high and the effect may not be satisfactory. On the other hand, hot money, such as floods, should not be blocked. " Xu Yuanyuan, senior research manager of Hong Kong Shifu Financial Group, said, "From the perspective of reducing operating costs, we can establish a specific market and use the profit-seeking nature of hot money to attract capital inflows. The subject matter of this market transaction may be structured financial derivatives such as foreign exchange, commodities or interest rate options, futures, etc., giving maximum market freedom, allowing hot money to see the possibility of appreciation in a short time, and can quickly enter and exit this market without entering China's real economy. " Chen Gong, chairman of Anbang Consulting, said, first of all, international speculative funds must enter this "pool"; Secondly, according to the preference of hot money, stocks and bonds are the most suitable financial assets to form this asset pool; Finally, this "pool" has greater market freedom, enabling China to effectively guide, manage and supervise the quantity and flow of international hot money. "In the context of large-scale capital inflow, the regulatory authorities can allow enterprises to carry out equity financing and debt financing during this period, and increase the capacity of the fund pool through the expansion of the capital market." Chen Gong said, "This not only absorbed hot money, slowed down the rise of asset prices, but also promoted the development of the bond market and the establishment of a multi-level capital market. For enterprises, it will usher in the era of low-cost financing. As for the' fish escaping from the net' that overflows the capital market, the central bank should monitor the liquidity of the money market and use open market operations to regulate it if necessary. " It is worth mentioning that the Hong Kong market, as the bridgehead of international hot money speculation on China's economy, also actively interprets the "pool" theory. "Once the' pool' for absorbing hot money is established, it can greatly divert the Hong Kong market or international hot money through Hong Kong, alleviate the local asset bubble, and is also conducive to the long-term stability of China's financial market." Xu Yuanyuan said. Although there are many comments that the "pool" is probably the stock market, in the view of Liu Dongliang, a financial analyst of China Merchants Bank, "because the monthly inflow and outflow of hot money may be as high as tens of billions of dollars, equivalent to hundreds of billions of yuan, such a huge amount of funds flowing into the stock market will inevitably bring about ups and downs in the stock market, which is not conducive to the stable operation of the financial market and the national economy." He believes that the bond market is more likely to be a "pool". The bond market not only has large market capacity and good liquidity, but also has strong financial strength, which can cope with the impact of market fluctuations. Internationally, a country's bond market is usually much larger than the stock market, and it is easier to absorb the impact of huge funds. Experts interviewed generally believe that "pool" should not only be selective and storable, but also be isolated. If the funds of enterprises and residents are allowed to enter this "pool", once the bubble bursts, the hot money will go at a profit, leaving small and medium-sized retail investors and enterprises and institutions to pay for the mess left by the huge amount of hot money, which will hit the country's investment and consumption capacity and is not conducive to economic transformation. Emerging markets must jointly "build dikes to prevent floods". If we compare rivers, developed countries such as Europe and America are in the upper reaches, and emerging market countries such as China are in the lower reaches. At present, the wanton issuance of currency in the upstream will inevitably lead to the flood of liquidity, and the downstream emerging market economies have to join the ranks of "flood control". Troubled by the sharp appreciation of the local currency and the influx of hot money, Brazil raised the VAT rate of overseas financial investment to 6%. Indonesia stipulates that capital inflows should be held for one month, and Indonesia's central bank also indicated that it plans to introduce longer-term time deposits. South Korea has also reviewed whether foreign and local banks and non-bank financial institutions comply with the new regulations on derivatives positions; On the other hand, Malaysia has chosen to further open its capital outflow, which is likely to cause other countries to follow suit. Regarding the capital control actions taken by some countries, Su Bowen, chief economist of Nomura Securities Asia, pointed out that "the substantive control measures taken by some countries may put pressure on other economies in the region. Therefore, emerging market countries should consider taking joint action. " Coinciding with this view, the Thai Finance Minister recently publicly stated that the Bank of Thailand is in close consultation with other Asian central banks to cope with the second round of quantitative easing policy of the United States. According to the situation, central banks can take joint measures to prevent excessive speculation in their own currency and capital markets.