No one likes economic depression, which means more unemployment and lower income. However, the laws of the economic cycle are hard to be changed by human will. Every peak has its valley, so the government always tries to smooth this curve. This generation can always hear the words of macro-control after work, but the economic heat is still unabated, the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction is increasing, environmental pollution is serious in some places, and house prices and stock prices are high. China's economy will continue for several years, but who can guarantee that it will not be depressed after overheating? For this generation, they must face all this and bear all this.

Not afraid of buying a house, but also afraid of buying a house.

There is no house wandering around the city, of course, I feel uneasy, and the current house price is a number every day, and it may double again in two years. The rate of wage increase is far behind the rate of house price increase. If you don't bite your teeth, you may have no house to live in this life. But is it safe to buy a house? It's good to be a house slave. I'm afraid I bought a house I couldn't afford. When the economy is depressed, the house price falls, even the monthly payment is not paid, and the house is forcibly auctioned, which is much more terrible than not being able to afford a house.

I'm not afraid of work, but I'm afraid of work.

The grim employment situation is no longer news, and this situation will not be alleviated or even aggravated in the short term. Even if people without jobs own houses, they are just abandoned by a city, which is even more terrible. But aren't you afraid of having a job? People in the workplace generally have skill panic, so they must constantly update their knowledge and skills in order to keep up with the changes of the times. Lifetime employment has nothing to do with this generation. The adjustment of industrial structure, poor management of enterprises and problems in their own abilities may all bring unemployment worries. People will be under more and more pressure in the workplace.

Not afraid of getting married, but also afraid of getting married.

It's good to have a home. Wandering in the city without help will increase the sense of insecurity, not to mention the efficiency of husband and wife in managing money together. Marriage is a besieged city. With the development of economy and the change of social concept, it will be easier to go out of the city than to go into the city in the future. In fact, people in "cities" are not afraid of divorce, which is the biggest act of breaking money, and the divorce rate is rising. The pace of life is getting faster and faster, there are more and more temptations from the outside world, and there are more and more fears about marriage and insecurities after marriage.

Don't be afraid of children, even if you have children.

The aging society is coming, and how this generation provides for the aged is likely to become a worldwide problem. The Dinks live a chic life, but they are also worried that they will be lonely when they are old. So what if you have children? It is unrealistic to expect to raise children to prevent old age, and with the increasingly fierce social competition, children have become the main "cost center" of families. Children's education needs a lot of money, and the input-output ratio is not optimistic. Children can bring joy and pressure to a family.

This generation is afraid of everything! But on the other hand, "fear" is not necessarily a bad thing, and risks and opportunities always go hand in hand. Recession gives you room to rise, and you win the opportunity to enter when you fall. The pressure of work can make you more professional, and the lack of social security may make you cherish your family more. After all, this generation can have more choices and face more opportunities. The Internet has created a fairer and more open environment for them. As long as they have the ability, they can completely embrace this boiling era. This generation has every reason to "love".

So, what will people born in 75-85 face in the next 30 years? How did their "fear" and "love" finally turn into the driving force for victory? The next part may help you answer these questions-win for 30 years! Is it possible? Who knows what will happen in 30 years? Yes, in the blink of an eye, things change, and too many changes have taken place in 30 years-

Thirty years ago, who could have predicted that a great economic change that shocked the world was brewing, and the great changes in material wealth, ideology and culture it brought would make people stunned 30 years ago.

As a result, some enviable employees of state-owned enterprises who eat from the same pot and enjoy various benefits have been laid off; Once some people who were "forced" to buy stocks in order to complete organizational tasks became the first nouveau riche in the capital market; Some "second-hand businessmen" and people who were thought to be idle are now entrepreneurs. ...

Change means opportunity. If we had predicted the great development of the market economy long ago, we might be willing to meet the challenges of the market instead of relying on the government for everything. If you had predicted the prosperity of the capital market long ago, you might have taken care of your assets instead of getting drunk today. When feeling that fate made man, have we seriously thought about what the future will be like? What kind of planning should I make for my life?

For those born in 1975-85, they are about to shoulder the heavy responsibility of China's economic development, and the next 30 years will also be the golden 30 years of their lives. This generation grew up in the tide of reform, and also suffered the cost and pain brought by reform. They have been branded as market economy since childhood, but when they become the main force to promote the development of market economy, they often feel lost and confused. There is no doubt that this generation will win the next 30 years, and China will also win the world for 30 years.

Qian Jing hopes to predict some possible situations in China's economic and social operation in the next 30 years, and also make a life plan for people born in 75-85. Maybe you think this kind of planning is meaningless. After all, life is full of too many variables, but you need to make choices now, such as buying a house, career development, starting a business and so on. , may greatly affect your next 30 years. Maybe you doubt the reliability of this prediction. After all, too much will happen in 30 years. We don't deny this. We may not give you a definite result, but we will tell you a correct attitude and method to face the future.

Financial management is a kind of planning, and life needs planning.

Growing memory and its characteristics

This summer, there are two popular movies related to the childhood memories of people born in 75-85. One is Transformers, and the other is Doraemon and his dinosaur. When young men and women flock to the cinema with their partners and even children, they are more directed at transformers toys who once fell asleep and the naive robot cat who can always change new things. They are looking for a memory rather than a movie.

This nostalgia also pervades the Internet. Sometimes, this generation has thousands of posts recalling their childhood, and followers continue to post memories-besides Transformers and Robot Cats, there are also Fairy Tale King, Glass Ball, Contra, Street Fighter 2, Cat and Mouse, Saint saint seiya, sixteen-year-old flower season, a spoonful of sour plum powder, bubble gum, three fresh noodles, calcium milk biscuits and Little Tiger. ...

This memory list can be very long. It is really puzzling that a group of young people are so moved by their childhood memories now. However, it is not difficult to understand the growth process of this generation-

They were born in an era of relative scarcity, but the material products gradually enriched with the economic reform, and the opening up to the outside world also brought a sustained impact on their spiritual world; They were born in a relatively closed era. Men's enthusiasm for seeing Jin Yong and women's enthusiasm for seeing Qiong Yao is usually hidden underground. Once the cage of thought is opened, it will fly higher and farther. They were born in a relatively monotonous era, and the TV media that accompanied them appeared and grew up initially output almost a single content. When there are more and more buttons on the remote control, the Internet is booming and they have more choices. Perhaps, it is precisely because of the lack, imprisonment and monotony of childhood memories that this generation is doubly cherished and moved.

This generation was born and raised with the reform and opening up, and they have special feelings for money and the market: they longed for money in their childhood ignorance and knew the magic of money, but at that time they were still in an environment with deep vigilance against the commercial society. With their growth, the commodity economy is developing and their concepts are changing. They also begin to learn to think independently and create independently. But when they become the main force in the pursuit of money to create wealth, they are gradually tired of ubiquitous business practices. When the pressure on them is increasing, they miss the simplicity and beauty of the period of relative material shortage.

The following is a passage from a post-80s netizen, which can also be regarded as a declaration issued by this generation:

I was an idealist in' 82.

The only child in the 1980 s had no brothers or sisters, and the material for growing up was not lacking, but it was not enough.

When we were young, the chivalrous and heroic media edified us with love, compassion and sense of justice, and also made us hate the despicable things such as hypocrisy, affectation and flattery that we encountered in the real world.

Although we have been growing up in the party's propaganda and education, people in the 1980s did not believe what we had not experienced, and also taught us to doubt without blindly following, and yearn for fairness and freedom in an increasingly advanced environment.

Compared with the older generation, the Cultural Revolution did not hurt or distort our young hearts. Compared with people in the 1990s, in the era when there was no material abundance and materialistic desires, we cherished little happiness more. It was a simple and romantic childhood.

We are a kind generation, and now we have to run for our lives. Our time will come, and it will come soon. By then, the hidden rules will be reduced, and there will be no market for immoral people.

After reading this spiritual declaration, we may feel some characteristics of this generation, which are consistent with economic reform and opening up: they are realistic, but they also have a little idealism; They are eager for wealth, but they are not completely money-oriented; They are not superstitious about authority, but they also have a little respect for professional experts; They have no firm belief, but they don't lack value recognition; They are influenced by western ideas, but they also find that there are many dross in them; They are about to take on great responsibilities, but they are still afraid and uneasy about future changes.

People born in 1975-1985 are about to enter the golden age of their lives, and will also become the leading force to promote China's economic development. What kind of environment are they in? What kind of future will it face? Where will their characteristics take China's economy? In turn, what impact will it bring to yourself? This generation must face and answer these questions if it wants to win the next 30 years.

To do this, we need to first explore the fear and love of this generation-

The fear and love of this generation

When we were in primary school, we didn't need money to go to college.

When we were in college, primary school was free;

When we haven't been able to work, work is also assigned;

When we can work, we barely find a hungry job when we hit a wall;

When we can't make money, the house is allocated;

When we can make money, we find that the house can't afford it;

When we didn't enter the stock market, fools were making money;

When we rushed in, we found ourselves a fool;

This is a self-mockery of newborns in the late 1970s and 1980s, which caused widespread abuse. For people born in the period of 1975-85 (the scope can be narrower), it is really embarrassing. They caught up with the reform of housing commercialization and education industrialization, and experienced the expansion of university enrollment and this bizarre bull market. They bear the cost of reform, and before they can enjoy the benefits of reform, they are pushed to the forefront of the market tide, and they will feel uneasy in the face of various risks and great changes that may occur in the next few decades.

A great prediction for the next 30 years

It is almost impossible to fully predict what will happen in the next 30 years. Just like 30 years ago, who could have predicted that China's economy would undergo such great changes, 15 years ago, who could have predicted that the Internet would have such a profound impact on our lives. However, economic and social development also has laws to follow, and history often repeats itself. We can't paint a clear picture of the next 30 years, but this doesn't prevent us from making predictions in advance on some issues, such as when China's economy will be depressed and what are the precursors of the stock market turning from bull to bear. This does not affect our imagination of the next technological revolution and changes in people's consumption patterns. Don't treat this prediction as a game. Successful people are often farsighted. Only by seeing "potential" clearly and using "skills" well can this generation win the next 30 years.

How far is the economic depression from this generation?

Forecast and suggestion: China's economy will enter a relative recession in the near future. So, at this stage, you should reduce your debt as much as possible. For example, it is best to repay the mortgage in advance. We should pay close attention to the changes of economic indicators and people's willingness to consume, especially the latter is more intuitive. Once there are obvious signs of depression, sell all kinds of assets in your hands, such as real estate, some stocks, funds, etc. Then try to judge the bottom of the depression and buy various assets in time.

For people born in 1975- 1985, will they experience an economic depression during their 20 to 30-year career or during the mortgage period? The answer is almost yes. Economic cycle fluctuation is a normal state, which can't be avoided in any region. What we are concerned about now is when and how deep the depression will come.

Of course, it is too difficult to predict the economic trend accurately, even the top economists can't do it. But at least you need to be alert to some signs, just like thinking about taking an umbrella on a cloudy day. Next, we will give some signs of economic depression in the past two years. As for whether it will turn into a real depression, it depends on your own judgment. For people born in 75-85, it is very important to grasp the economic cycle, so that we can formulate coping strategies as soon as possible.

Sign 1: The investment cycle has ended, and the danger of overproduction is brewing in the high economic growth driven by investment demand.

China's economy is mainly driven by investment. First of all, we should analyze the changes of investment. The data shows that the growth rate of urban investment was 29.6% last year1-April, and it has dropped to 25.5% this year1-April. In the first quarter of this year, the investment in newly started projects was negative growth 13.5%. This shows that the main driving force of China's economic growth-investment-is slowing down, and it has begun to shift from promoting the growth of total demand to promoting the growth of total supply, thus brewing a crisis of overproduction.

Observation investment should mainly focus on the changes of machinery and equipment manufacturing industry. Up to now, this round of investment cycle has basically ended the civil engineering stage and entered the equipment installation stage. During equipment installation, adjustment

After the trial production and the trial production stage, the investment project is completed and enters the qualitative change point of investment from demand to supply. If consumption and export cannot replace investment demand, the crisis of overproduction will be inevitable. There are a lot of statistics to support the investment cycle to enter the stage of equipment installation, and shrinking external demand may accelerate overcapacity.

Sign 2: The real estate market overdraws the future consumption power, the wealth effect brought by the stock market is weakening, and inflation actually reduces the purchasing power of wages.

In a mature economy like the United States, consumer spending is the most important indicator to judge the economic cycle. Although the situation in China is different, we can't ignore the changes in consumption. Since the beginning of this year, consumption growth has continued the accelerated trend since last year, but we have noticed that real estate accounts for a considerable proportion in consumption composition. Higher and higher housing prices and tighter land supply will inevitably make real estate consumption turn cold, and the squeezing effect of long-term high housing prices on other consumption fields will gradually appear.

It should be said that the increase in consumption growth in recent two years is basically consistent with the prosperity of the stock market, and the "wealth effect" created by the skyrocketing stock market has boosted the increase in consumption growth. However, I believe that anyone who enters the market will admit that it will not be so easy to make money in the stock market in the future, and the unilateral rise of the stock market will tighten consumption.

Recently, the more important changes in the field of consumption are inflation and rising prices. In the long run, the pressure of inflation shows no signs of easing. Inflation will reduce the purchasing power of wages, that is, reduce the actual average income per unit time, which is the only leading indicator that most effectively affects consumer spending. This round of inflation will hit the consumption expectations of low-and middle-income people, thus further tightening consumption.

The issue of food safety is not limited to food safety itself, but has risen to the height of economy and politics, which is a vote of no confidence in China. The sinister intentions of some countries and forces are obvious, but it has undeniably impacted China's exports.

The impact of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States exceeded people's initial expectations, which shows that the American economy began to taste the consequences of excessive liquidity expansion in previous years. If there is a credit card crisis in the United States, then global liquidity tightening may become a trend. At present, it is difficult to judge what impact the subprime mortgage crisis will have on China's economy. However, the recession of the US economy and the resulting consumption contraction do not bode well for China's economy.

Are you nervous about seeing so many ominous signs? Actually, you don't have to worry too much. You should trust the China government's ability to regulate the economy. For people born in 75-85, as long as they don't have too much debt, they can easily get through the recession and may seize the opportunity to push their career and investment career to another new peak. What you have to do is to reduce debt and investment before the depression, but increase investment and allocate various assets before the rebound. Especially for the "negative Weng" family, it is even more necessary to take the time to reduce debts.

The fluctuation of the economic cycle is too macroscopic for individuals to grasp, so let's talk about something specific, such as the stock market. When this bull market will end and whether it will collapse is also a matter of great concern to this generation of people who rushed into the stock market.

Now that prices are soaring, people's daily expenses are getting bigger and bigger. Although the country raises interest rates step by step to alleviate inflation, it can only alleviate this problem to a certain extent, and it cannot be finally solved, so financial management has become a fashionable term. Now our first consideration is not to earn more money, but how to manage the wealth we already have without being swallowed up by such an economic society because of inflation and keeping everything we have. But in the face of many investment and financial management methods in the market, how will you choose the one that suits you?

First of all, money. For ordinary working families, investment funds are the best choice. The risk of capital is shared by the general public, and the risk is very low, but the income is also very low. It takes a long time to get a good guarantee of investment income, and the risk is not absolutely low. A subprime mortgage crisis caused several famous fund institutions around the world to close down overnight, tens of billions of funds went up in smoke overnight, and more unknown funds closed down one after another. Besides, with the collapse of the Phoenix Bridge in Hunan Province, the funds invested in this project are also lost, and investment funds are no longer a business that only makes money. Moreover, no matter how good the bull market is, most funds are basically only rising and not earning.

Besides, the most lively stock market, for an investor who has just stepped into the stock market, is at a loss in the face of numerous stock varieties and names; For an old stockholder who has worked hard in the stock market for many years, the "fat red and thin green" of the stock market should have a deep understanding, and there is no need to say more about the bitterness. And now the handling fee of stock investment is getting higher and higher. Not only do the main investment securities have to be charged, but the state also has to collect stamp duty, which further increases the risk. Moreover, a single stock can only be bought up, and it will not be sold if it falls. This poor liquidity has reduced many investment opportunities and caused losses.

Real estate is a big money market, but we all know that most people can't afford it, the threshold is too high, the procedures are too complicated, the investment time is too long, and there are many negative factors caused by human nature.

Futures, with high technical requirements and large investment, need to spend a lot of time to study and choose the varieties you know. Although it can be traded in both directions, it will be impossible to buy or sell when the daily limit is low or low, which will reduce many investment opportunities and cause great losses.

Feasibility analysis of investing in international spot gold

2008 may be an important year for the price of gold, because it will hit a new high of 900 to 1000 USD per ounce. This is the conclusion reached by experts at the 2007 LBMA Precious Metals Conference held here.

The factors that encourage gold investment are the weakening of the US dollar, rising oil prices, global financial security issues and concerns about geopolitics and inflation. These are the views of experts attending the meeting.

Mr. Kamal Naqvi, commodity director of Credit Suisse Group Co., Ltd., said that the factors that push up the price of gold now will be maintained next year, because there is no quick solution to these problems. ..

However, before the end of the year, before the generally expected price increase, the price of gold may be further adjusted, because the profit-taking disk will be cashed before the end of the year.

At present, with the fluctuation range less than 20%, the market may fall to 750 USD/oz, and hit a new high in the first quarter of next year. "I don't think commodity prices (including oil prices) will fall next year," said david holmes, director of Dresdner Kleinwort in London.

In a short period of 2-4 weeks, there may be an adjustment, and then the price can rise to $850 per ounce in June 5438+February, and then to $ 1000 in 2008, said Mr. Philip Klapwijk, Executive Chairman of GFMS. (China Gold News June 2007 5438+065438+1October 2 1)

◎ If you have money, you might as well invest.

According to the latest statistics of the World Gold Council, at present, the per capita annual purchase of gold in China is about 0.2g, which is far lower than the per capita10g in other Asian countries and regions, and the investment ratio is even smaller. "If you have money, you might as well make a little gold investment." Zheng, managing director of the Far East Region of the World Gold Council, suggested.

However, industry insiders remind investors not to follow suit when investing in gold, especially as the main investment product of family financial management. Individuals and families must do what they can to invest in gold, and decide the allocation ratio of gold assets according to their risk tolerance and capital.

◎ The investment ratio should not be too high.

Zang Xiaolei, financial planner of Henan Branch of China Construction Bank, said that investing in gold should also pay attention to many related factors that affect the price of gold, control the investment ratio and avoid risks.

Since the price of gold is priced in dollars, the dollar falls, gold rises, the dollar rises and gold falls, therefore, the trend of the dollar has become a weather vane to judge the trend of gold. Besides many basic factors, speculative demand is also an important factor that affects the price of gold. Speculators often take advantage of the fluctuation of gold price in the gold market to artificially create the illusion of gold demand, which investors need to distinguish carefully.

For gold investors, to avoid risks, it is necessary to control the investment ratio. As a part of diversified investment portfolio, the proportion of gold should not be too high, and it is more appropriate to account for 10% of investment funds.

◎ Choose suitable varieties and invest moderately.

Some people mistakenly think that buying gold ornaments is investing in gold. Wu Quanwei, an insider, said that from the perspective of investment, gold jewelry is mainly reflected in its ornamental value and should not be used as an investment product. Because consumers often buy gold jewelry at a premium of 20%~30% on the basis of the price of gold raw materials, and their income-risk ratio is also poor, it is very important to choose the gold investment variety that suits them!