If the relationship between supply and demand is the economic factor that determines the long-term price of crude oil, then people's anxiety and worry about the imminent exhaustion of non-renewable mineral energy, which human beings depend on for survival since the new century, constitutes the social psychological basis of crude oil price speculation in the futures market. The rise of China, India, Brazil and other populous countries has once again changed the structure of world energy demand and strengthened this anxiety and worry. Mineral energy will soon be exhausted in a calculable number of years, and human beings have not found alternative new energy sources. This universal concern has only changed people's expectations of crude oil prices from the perspective of supply and demand. The scarcity of oil in the medium and long term makes it reasonable to speculate on any short-term oil price. We should not underestimate the influence of this social psychological factor, which can support oil prices for a long time from the relationship between supply and demand.
This reminds me of the critical school of western economic growth theory represented by the club of Rome in the 1970s. Among them, the second law of thermodynamics-"entropy" law has become an important theoretical weapon of this school. The two laws of thermodynamics are mixed. The first law of thermodynamics tells us that energy is conserved and immortal, and can only be changed from one form to another. In this way, the process of human consumption of energy is only a process of promoting the transformation of energy forms, and energy will not be exhausted. Doesn't this mean that human beings can abuse inexhaustible material and energy without worrying? But the second law of thermodynamics immediately slaps those who abuse the first law of thermodynamics, and energy can only be irreversibly transformed in one direction, that is, from useful to useless, from effective to inefficient. "Entropy" is the unit of measurement of the total energy that can no longer be converted into work. The increase of "entropy" means the decrease of effective energy. Energy can only be transformed in one direction-dissipation direction. Pollution and entropy are the same word. This simple physical law has a strong humanistic connotation, which affects and changes people's evaluation of economic growth.
The modern material civilization and economic development of mankind are based on the material energy composed of fossil fuels and special metals. The material production activities of human beings are nothing more than the process of energy transformation based on a specific material-energy by using a specific technology (human insect carving skills). The technology and speed of this transformation determine the added value of entropy. The faster the growth rate, the more developed the technology ("technology" can finally be summed up as "speed"), the faster the useful and effective energy and raw materials are consumed, the faster the "entropy" increases, and finally reaches infinity. Thermodynamics makes the ultimate fate of mankind miserable. The birth and death of human beings as a species will be the result of natural forces, and human beings cannot change it. Individual's rational choice will lead to collective irrationality and eventually lead to species extinction. This is the natural fate of any living species. We don't care about the result. What we are worried about is that under the current economic growth model, it only takes hundreds or even decades for human beings to consume the mineral energy and resources deposited by the earth for billions of years.
For a long time, mankind has been actively looking for new alternative energy sources. The consumption energy base composed of fossil fuels and rare metals may be replaced by renewable solar energy and endless nuclear energy. However, so far, we have not seen hope. Solar energy cannot be collected and utilized on a large scale, or it consumes too much energy to collect solar energy itself. The negative effects of developing nuclear energy and its impact on environmental pollution are still difficult to estimate. However, if we look at the focus of the Iranian nuclear crisis and the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue in international politics, we will inevitably ask, is the development of nuclear energy to quench human thirst?
This round of economic growth has made China people understand the position of energy and raw materials in China's economic development. In the medium and long term, what we lack is not the driving force of economic growth, but the supply of energy and raw materials to ensure economic growth. If the system and mechanism are the main bottlenecks of our growth in the past two decades, then the supply of energy and raw materials will constitute the main bottlenecks of future development. If we want to accelerate development, we must consume more materials and energy. However, we can't follow the American way. We must take Scientific Outlook on Development as our practice guide to achieve the greatest harmony with nature.
The law of "entropy" tells us that from a natural point of view, human production and economic activities are the process of transforming available effective resources and energy into ineffective resources and energy. The more advanced the technology, the faster the transformation process. From the point of view of utility, energy will always be exhausted. The rise of oil price divorced from supply and demand is a signal of energy crisis in the existing mineral form. This kind of signal will be stronger and stronger, which will lead to the failure of the supply-demand method in the global energy price analysis first.