Beijing is the only place that implements national policies without compromise. The other places either delay in issuing detailed rules or issue some detailed rules that are inconsistent with the five national policies. Therefore, some experts say that now " Government orders cannot leave Zhongnanhai." Although the National Five Articles hope to curb housing prices, if we carefully recall similar measures in the past and look at the national conditions, we can draw the conclusion that housing prices are unlikely to fall. The reasons are: 1) To this day, there is no official criticism from the government about the much-criticized "land finance". Failure to criticize means that there will be no change. In addition, many local governments have financial debts and the central government is unable to solve them one by one. If If land finance is changed again, where can we get huge amounts of help to pay off the debt? If there is less income from land sales, where can we get replacement fiscal revenue? Foreign countries do not rely on land finance. We can actually learn from what they rely on. However, our performance assessment indicators are much higher than theirs, so borrowing foreign methods is not enough to cope with the assessment indicators. 2) Land is a non-renewable resource. One piece is sold for less than one piece. The scarcity of land determines that land prices will not fall. The recent media revelations that the government is taking measures to "suppress" housing prices while raising land prices illustrates the problem. 3) The previous government failed to complete the construction of tens of millions of affordable housing units promised by the previous government, and there were not enough low-cost housing to regulate the market. Public rental housing has just been launched, and the scale of supply is far from the demand. 5) Although the Party Central Committee has made a commitment to double per capita income by 2020, if prices are not controlled and prices will double or less, housing prices will still not stay at the same level for a long time. 6) The law of price changes in China is basically that if it goes up, it will never fall again. Gasoline prices, water prices, electricity prices, gas prices, stamp prices, taxi fares, incomes and administrative charges of civil servants and monopoly enterprise employees, etc., as long as they do not The prices of goods whose quality is affected by seasonal changes in weather or products with excess production capacity will not come down after they go up. 7) China’s investment channels are limited. Bank deposits and bonds have depreciated significantly. The rules for stocks, funds, foreign exchange, futures, insurance, etc. are unclear. There are also considerable black-box operations. In some projects, there are cheating and soliciting orders, and the credibility is not good. It is high and risky, so investing in real estate is still an investment method that people rely on. 8) The purchase limit is one-size-fits-all. Regardless of the size of the house, regardless of the distance from the city center, regardless of the area owned by the family, the purchase limit is simply based on the number of units, artificially limiting the purchase of abundant commodities into scarce commodities. 9) The delay in starting the “Official Property Disclosure System” hinders the release of more houses through anti-corruption measures, and the blockade will definitely push up housing prices. 10) There has been a delay in dealing with small-property houses. Many small-property houses cannot be officially put on the market, and housing prices cannot be diluted. 11) Real estate development involves many industries. If the development of real estate is curbed, connected industries such as building materials, decoration, electrical and plumbing equipment, bank loans, freight logistics, furniture, department stores, home appliances and home appliance installation, elevators, property management, etc. will inevitably be curbed. Security, greening, low-level commerce, etc. Chinese officials rely on GDP to show their political performance, so naturally they will not easily shrink real estate that is easy to generate GDP in a decisive and large-scale manner. 12) The government has never stated that it will lower housing prices. All they have stated is to "stabilize housing prices," or to curb the skyrocketing trend, or to improve real estate data. Even though a certain provincial governor of Guangdong many years ago vowed to "lower housing prices," The government has many ways to control housing prices," (to the effect), but in fact they cannot implement them. The five national purchase restrictions or restrictions on house sales profits in certain places that can be used now are all temporary show-offs that violate market rules. 13) The central government currently lacks decisive authority and effectiveness, and cannot handle many issues well, such as reducing the power of officials, building an anti-corruption system, implementing an official property disclosure system, reducing public consumption, eliminating government financial irregularities (there are problems with audits every year), environmental Air pollution is getting worse day by day, food safety problems are becoming more and more serious, coal mine safety has never been improved, political performance evaluation has spawned a large number of illegal administrations, the gap between government and civilian treatment has always been huge, monopoly state-owned enterprises are still serious monopolies, unfair law enforcement is very serious, administrative openness is far from being promoted, etc. wait. None of the above items can support lowering housing prices, let alone determine a return standard. Therefore, if we pin our hopes on the government to introduce various effective measures to reduce housing prices in various places to a "reasonable" level, firstly, this level is difficult to determine, and secondly, it is simply unrealistic. Looking at the effects of various measures to curb housing prices and advanced foreign experience, if you want to curb housing prices at a reasonable level, the best way is to 1) allocate 30 square meters of tax-free house purchase quota to each resident (given the quota government There is no need to invest costs). Regardless of whether it is a government or a citizen, if you purchase a house that exceeds the tax-free quota, the house sales income tax will be levied according to the amount of excess. For example, if it exceeds the standard by 20 square meters, it will be levied at 20%; if it exceeds 50 square meters, it will be levied at 40%; if it exceeds 100 square meters, it will be levied at 20%. levy 80% (the details should be enacted by legislation). Specifically: For a family of three, the tax-free quota is 90 square meters. If they have a total house of 120 square meters, the excess 30 square meters will need to pay 20% sales income tax when the house is sold. If this 120 square meters is purchased by one person, it is 90 square meters over the standard, and a 40% tax will be paid when the house is sold.

2) But for the megacities of Beijing, Shanghai, and Chongqing, there should be other flexible measures to coordinate with it: Specifically, over-standard houses close to the city are taxed as mentioned above, and houses far away from the city are taxed reduced or even exempt based on the distance, such as in Beijing's Fifth Ring Road. Taxes can be levied normally within the 5th Ring Road and within the 6th Ring Road. Taxes can be appropriately reduced outside the 6th Ring Road. Outside the 6th Ring Road, there can be no taxation. Such separate treatment can divert the population to satellite cities outside the urban area. 3) Another point is that all measures to curb housing prices are aimed at changing the phenomenon of real estate speculation and price hikes. In order not to accidentally target groups in need of improvement, the tax standards for large houses should be relaxed. For example, a family of three with two houses is 40 each. , 60 square meters of house, the total area has exceeded 10 square meters, the prescribed tax must be paid when selling the house. In order to improve their housing conditions, they sold two houses and bought a house of 140 square meters. According to the area of ??140 square meters, it exceeds the standard by 50 square meters. However, large houses exceeding 140 square meters are not types of house flipping. Therefore, in order to encourage appropriate improvements, if If there is only one house and exceeds 140 square meters, the tax on the excess part should be appropriately reduced. There are also villa-type houses, which are not the type of real estate speculation. For these large-sized houses, the tax standards should be relaxed. The above measures not only give everyone the same tax-free treatment fairly, but you can also buy as many houses as you like, but the different proportions of income tax can curb the motivation for real estate speculation. For those who already own multiple properties, due to the effect of taxes on suppressing profits, holding multiple properties will not bring considerable profits. On the contrary, the more you hold, the less profit you will make, so you will no longer be motivated to hold or buy more. The situation of real estate speculation will be improved. Rich people can buy as many houses as they like, and those who want to improve can also do so. Those who believe that the value of the house will maintain and increase can also be operated. In such an environment where there are no purchase restrictions, real estate developers will not significantly shrink their business, and related industries will not be affected by real estate. The contraction will weaken development, and employment will not be subject to huge fluctuations. Not restricting purchases is also in line with the laws of the market economy, and it will be difficult for outsiders to make an international fuss about our purchase restrictions. 4) Of course, even if everyone has a tax-free quota, it does not mean that everyone can buy a house. People with financial difficulties still need to rely on the government's public rental housing or affordable housing. It is the government's responsibility to help needy groups. Therefore, the government must insist on building more public rental housing and affordable housing. Public rental housing and affordable housing can change the current centralized construction strategy. Legislation stipulates that the construction of urban real estate must bear a certain proportion of public rental housing or affordable housing. After the construction is completed, the government will purchase it. Assigned to needy groups. In this way, the government does not have to designate land, and does not have to worry about development. It also reduces the chance of corruption through projects. More importantly, public rental housing and affordable housing will no longer be built far away from the city, thus reducing the travel of applicants. cost, and effectively solve the housing problem of disadvantaged groups. 5) Another effective measure is to finally solve the problem of houses with small property rights. Nowadays, houses with small property rights cannot be built, sold, collected, fined and demolished. A large number of houses with small property rights cannot be released to the market. Artificially Land has intensified the supply shortage of houses. In this case, we might as well cut the knot quickly and recognize the legal status of the built houses with small property rights. As long as they are willing to pay a certain amount of taxes and fees after five years of use, they are allowed to be put on the market. In this way, the houses with small property rights will be enlarged after they are put on the market. The supply and the people's choice opportunities, if there is more supply, the price will naturally come down. 6) Implement the "Official Property Disclosure System" as soon as possible. This system will force corrupt officials to release multiple sets of properties they have acquired ill-gotten, and return those properties to a fair market. This will not only combat corruption, but also allow the real estate market to develop healthily. The cost of the above six methods is not high, and the operation is not complicated. Whether they can be adopted depends on the determination of those in power. If they think it hinders them from using the property in their hands to continue to make profits, it will naturally be difficult to get their support. I hope that the new decision-making team can seriously consider it and truly proceed from the interests of the people and effectively solve the housing price problem for the people. If the people's major livelihood issues are solved, the motivation to build the Chinese Dream will continue.