When people are generally worried that oil prices will soar this summer, another storm is approaching: the oil crisis will not end in 2023. It is almost certain that this situation will continue until next year.
The growth of oil demand
While the market is waiting for the IEA's forecast, commodity trading companies, oil companies, OPEC countries and western consumer countries are already calculating their own data. Their understanding of oil demand in 2023 is between 6,543,800,000 barrels per day and 2,500,000 barrels per day. According to the data of the International Energy Agency, by 2023, this figure may increase by 654.38+0.8 billion barrels per day, reaching 654.38+0 billion barrels per day. Under normal circumstances, if the annual demand increases at a rate of more than 6.5438+0 million vehicles per day, it will be regarded as quite strong.
The supply side looks no better. Oil traders predict that Russia's oil supply can only maintain the current level of about 6.5438+million barrels per day, which has dropped by about 654.38+00% since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, many people think that the supply may drop by 6,543.8+0,000 barrels, or even 6,543.8+0.5 million barrels. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has enough spare capacity at the beginning of 2023, and is about to reach its supply limit. Mohammed Baldin, secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said last week that "except for two or three member countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the oil production of other countries has reached its limit."
This may be the third consecutive year that the existing oil inventories have decreased after the global crude oil and refined oil inventories have fallen sharply in the past 18 months.
So far this year, western governments have released the largest strategic oil reserves in history, thus alleviating the impact of declining supply. If no further action is taken, the emergency release of oil reserves will end in June 5438+065438+ 10, thus eliminating the biggest buffer in the market.
The oil refining industry represents another problem. In fact, the world has exhausted the remaining capacity to convert crude oil into usable fuels such as gasoline and diesel. As a result, the profit margin of refiners has exploded, which in turn means that consumers pay much more for filling up the fuel tank than the oil price shows.
The oil refining industry uses a rough calculation method called "3-2- 1 cracking diffusion" to measure the profit rate of oil refining: three barrels of WYI crude oil are refined into two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of distillate fuel (such as diesel). From 1985 to 202 1, the average price difference between crude oil and refined oil is $65,438+$00.50 per barrel. Last week, the spread soared to an all-time high of nearly $665,438+0. Few new refineries will be put into operation in the next 18 months, which means that the profit margin of the refining industry may remain high for the rest of this year and before this year.
The prospect of 2023 is mostly related to government behavior. Each one can change the balance of supply and demand from 6,543.8+0,000 barrels per day to 6,543.8+0.5 million barrels per day, which is enough to significantly promote the price trend. The most important one is the duration of sanctions against Russian oil, which is related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Other measures include western sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and the release of strategic reserves.
Oil price shocks are usually remembered for their high oil prices. But this is only half the problem; The other half is their duration. This is the most important place to predict the oil price prospect in 2023.
The last oil price surge was short-lived. After a moderate price increase in 2007 and early 2008, the price rose rapidly in May 2008, climbing above 120 USD. The oil price peaked at 147.50 USD in July, but it fell below 100 USD in early September. By June 5438+February, 2008, the price of Brent crude oil had been below $40.
The trend of oil price in the last and current oil crisis
So far, the oil price increase of 202 1-22 is a replica of 2007-08. Strangely, the trend of oil prices is almost completely synchronized. However, any hope that the oil market will follow the pattern before 14 years is a misunderstanding of reality. Oil prices will not collapse. A better analogy is the period from 20 1 1 to 20 14: the oil price never returned to the historical high in 2008, but remained above 100 dollars all the way.
In 2023, the average price of Brent crude oil has reached $0/03 per barrel, which is higher than the annual average price of $98.50 per barrel in 2008. In the next six months, the price may go up. But more importantly, the trend of high oil prices makes people temporarily unable to see the end.
Related questions and answers: crude oil price trend, oil price trend The international crude oil price system changes with the development and evolution of the world oil market. By analyzing the price trend of crude oil under different conditions, the changing trend of crude oil can be predicted.
First, through bottom interval analysis
When the price trend of crude oil does not break through the bottom or top of the previous period, crude oil investors must not draw the conclusion that the general trend or the small trend has changed too early. When the market is bullish, the price of crude oil futures will rebound quickly, and the decline will not be great, forming a double bottom or multiple bottoms above the bottom. But once the price of crude oil falls below the original bottom, it means that the price of crude oil will fall to a lower point before some important rebound occurs. Dream weaving content management system
Second, through the top interval analysis
When there are double tops or multiple tops again, but the price has not risen above the original top, even a bull market should not enter prematurely. Once the price rises above the original top, before it falls back, the price will often show obvious signs of rising, and it will be better if it enters the long state.
All false price changes often appear in the final stage of bull market or bear market, and investors should trade after there is a clear bullish or bearish signal.
Thirdly, analyze the long and narrow fluctuation range.
In the narrow trading range of crude oil, if the futures price of crude oil lasts for several weeks or months and the crude oil price breaks through the original bottom or top, it means that the general trend has changed to a great extent. Moreover, the longer the crude oil price stays in this narrow range, the greater the change after breaking through this range.
Fourth, analyze the length of the decline time.
The length of time is an important way to judge whether the general trend has changed. The specific law is that after a period of time (that is, at the depression stage), the depression stage falls back for more than the longest time before, and then the general trend often begins to change.
In the investment and trading of crude oil, only with a clear head can we correctly analyze the trend of crude oil prices and predict the changing trend of crude oil by analyzing the trend of crude oil prices under different conditions.