Brief introduction of real estate investment risk
Real estate investment is the foundation of real estate development and management, and the result is to form new available real estate or transform the original real estate. In the process of this investment activity, income and risk exist at the same time, especially in the real estate investment in China during the economic transition period, the risk is inevitable.
Types of real estate investment risks
In the process of real estate investment, investment risks are diverse and complex, mainly including the following:
(1) Market competition risk.
Specifically, it refers to the excessive supply of similar real estate in the real estate market and fierce marketing competition, which ultimately brings the risk of increased promotion costs or unsalable real estate to real estate investors. The emergence of market risks is mainly caused by developers' lack of market investigation and analysis and market grasping ability. Sales risk is the main risk of market competitiveness.
(2) Purchasing power risk.
Specifically, it refers to the decline of people's purchasing power due to the rise of the overall price level. When the income level is fixed and the purchasing power level generally declines, people will reduce the consumption demand for real estate commodities, which will lead to the decrease of the sales or rental income of real estate investors, thus causing them to suffer certain losses.
(3) Liquidity and liquidity risk.
First of all, because the real estate is fixed on the land, the completion of its transaction can only be the transfer of ownership or use right, and its entity cannot be moved. Secondly, it takes a long time to complete the real estate transaction because of the large value of the real estate and the large amount of funds occupied. All these have affected the liquidity and liquidity of real estate, that is, real estate investors can't get rid of their real estate as soon as possible when they are in urgent need of cash, even if they get rid of it, it is difficult to reach a reasonable price, which greatly affects their investment income, thus bringing real estate investors the risk of realizing their income.
(4) Interest rate risk.
Specifically, it refers to the possibility that interest rate changes will bring losses to real estate investors. The change of interest rate has two main effects on real estate investors: First, it affects the real value of real estate, and if discounted with high interest rate, it will affect the net present value income of real estate. The second is the impact on the cost of real estate debt funds. If the loan interest rate rises, it will directly increase the development cost of investors and increase their debt burden.
(5) Operational risk.
Specifically, it refers to the possibility that the actual operating results deviate from the expected value due to poor management or mistakes. There are three main situations that cause business risks: first, investors may make mistakes in business decisions because they cannot obtain accurate and sufficient market information; Second, because investors don't know much about the legal provisions, urban planning provisions and tax provisions involved in real estate transactions, the investment or transaction fails; Third, due to the low management level and poor efficiency of enterprises, they failed to sell properties at the most favorable market opportunity, resulting in high vacancy rate, increased operating expenses and lower-than-expected profits.
(6) Financial risks.
Specifically, due to the deterioration of the financial situation of real estate investors, real estate investors are faced with the possibility of not being able to recover their investment income on schedule or on schedule. The main reasons for financial risks are as follows: first, property buyers failed to pay the purchase price within the agreed time limit for various reasons; Second, investors use financial leverage, use a lot of loans, and implement debt management. Although this method expands the financing channels, it increases the uncertainty of investment and the possibility of debt repayment.
(7) Social risks.
Specifically, it refers to the risks brought by the rise and fall of real estate demand and price due to the changes of national political and economic factors. When the national political situation is stable and the economic development reaches a climax, the real estate price rises; When the economy is in recession, the demand for real estate falls and the price of real estate falls.
(8) Natural risks.
Specifically, it refers to the possibility of losses to investors due to people's loss of control over natural forces or abnormal changes in nature itself, such as earthquakes, fires and landslides. These disaster factors are often called irresistible factors. Once they occur, they will inevitably cause great damage to the real estate industry, thus bringing huge losses to investors.
Causes of real estate investment risk
Incomplete and inaccurate information, hasty investment decision. The information based on it is not accurate enough, or the preliminary investigation is not detailed, and the expectation of the purchasing power and sales prospect of the project is too optimistic, which will lead to a big deviation from the original estimate in the application. Unexpected adverse changes have taken place in the macro situation, causing various risks. This is also often encountered in economic life. The performance is as follows: first, the serious inflation and price increase in previous years have induced the price of building materials to rise, and the project cost has risen accordingly; The second is the currency issuance policy and bank credit policy; The third is the change of real estate supply and demand situation. The serious shortage of real estate supply has become history. If the supply exceeds the demand, the house price will naturally fall, the sales difficulty will increase, the promotion cost will increase, and it is almost impossible to sell faster. The fourth is the real estate policy and the resulting climate. For example, what is the focus of the current bank support for the real estate industry? Development? Become? Buy? This is not conducive to the development of real estate projects that have just been developed and need continuous investment.
Developers subjectively have deviations in understanding, judging or grasping the supply and demand situation of the real estate market, real estate policies and financial policies. Specific performance: developers trust themselves too much? Feeling? , but in fact? Feeling? Wrong or wrong. What if some developers believe that they will be easy to find? Next home? To get rid of the project, but actually did not do so; Some developers only consider and analyze the temporary market supply and demand when making project decisions, without considering the cyclical factors of development, resulting in the relationship between supply and demand? This time is different? , or the estimation of the market and the judgment of the advantages of the project itself are too optimistic, which eventually leads to sales difficulties; Some developers trust themselves too much? Tao? (that is, through? Relationship? Understand? Good project? Ability), but the operational strength (development strength, management ability, marketing ability) is insufficient or weak, and it is difficult to achieve the expected business performance in the project operation. In addition, natural disasters and accidents are also the causes of engineering construction risks in real estate development.