Since corn fell with wheat, it is the first time that Shandong and Northeast China have risen together. Although the overall increase is not large, it is better than falling endlessly.
At present, the rise of corn has entered a small climax.
on the one hand, the weather continued to "force" and Shandong raised prices for the second time.
I'm sure you all feel that in the past two days, there has been a large-scale cooling in many places in the north, and some areas have also ushered in snowy and rainy weather. For example, many places in Shandong and North China have been continuously cooled down, and the cotton-padded clothes that have just been put away have to be taken out again.
In rainy and snowy weather, the roads are slippery, the traffic is blocked, and the amount of corn is reduced.
It is said that "Shandong corn depends on the quantity". When the quantity decreases, the price of corn naturally increases.
on the other hand, the surplus grain in the market has bottomed out, and the main grain holders have recovered.
With the transfer of grain sources in the market and this round of inflation, the grain holders have gradually recovered. Although there is a general lack of confidence in building a warehouse this year, anyone who intends to do corn business must follow the changes in the market.
Therefore, Shandong changed the previous situation of mixed ups and downs and continued to start a second rise.
but it doesn't matter, the northeast is in a hurry.
when we talked about the rise of corn in northeast China, we mentioned that part of the reason was that the news of increasing storage boosted the market and stabilized the military. But another part of the reason is that with the price increase in Shandong again, the price difference between Northeast China and Shandong has narrowed, and at this time, the surplus grain at the grassroots level has bottomed out. In order to prevent the outflow of grain sources, many places in Northeast China are eager to raise prices and lock up grain.
but the most important thing is that the downstream demand is still sluggish. Although the price is rising, on the one hand, the increase is limited, which can be said to be cautious; On the other hand, the delivery was not smooth and the transaction was not good.
Therefore, the market has doubts about how long this round of corn rise can last.
in fact, the "confidence" of corn has begun to be insufficient.
first, the rise driven by the weather will inevitably fall because of the weather.
At present, it rains repeatedly in many places in Shandong and North China, but now, after all, it is almost May, and the weather is getting warmer. In the second half of this week, many places began to clear up, and the temperature also rose.
and this is what we mentioned before, the most worrying thing in the corn market at present, that is, with the warming of the weather, the previously suppressed quantity may explode intensively, and if the demand for corn does not rise in time, there is a high probability that corn will fall again.
second, there is doubt about the strength of demand and growth.
or it can't be called doubt. The current market is still pessimistic about the subsequent demand, which can be seen from the reaction of the corn futures market.
The spot keeps rising, while the futures keep falling, which means that the market is not optimistic about the follow-up trend of corn to some extent, and the market confidence is obviously insufficient.
thirdly, wheat continues to weaken, and it is difficult to get better before wheat harvest.
the last thing that has pulled down the confidence is wheat. In the past two weeks, the rotation of wheat for grain storage has increased. Although the price is still on the market, under the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the continuous increase in supply itself is the biggest negative signal.
coupled with the approaching wheat harvest, the increasing market supply and the increasing wait-and-see of enterprises, the price of wheat will continue to fall. In this case, it is expected that wheat will be difficult to do anything before wheat harvest, so it will suppress the ceiling of corn.
However, it's not all bad news. With the approach of May Day next week, enterprises will start stocking up one after another. However, in view of the fine weather and smooth traffic, the demand may not be large, and the support for corn will be limited.
Therefore, it is necessary to be alert to the fall of demand after the holiday and the impact of the fall of corn in Shandong on the northeast market.