Therefore, if you have to give a number, you can only add some restrictions. For example, if you invest in a broad-based index fund, you can probably get an annualized return of 15% to 20%.
But in practice, this does not mean that you can get a return of 15% to 20% by investing in a broad-based index for one year.
We can take the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index as an example, and use the actual historical data (from 2005 to 2020) for backtesting. When the time period is one year, the average yield is 1 1%, and the maximum yield is 138.9%. If you invest 1000 yuan every month during this period, the total investment income at the end of the period will be about 1660 yuan. The maximum loss is 53.2%. If the monthly investment during this period is 1 1,000 yuan, the total investment loss at the end of the period is about 6400 yuan. Moreover, the starting time of fixed investment is different, and the results of income are different.
However, time can bridge this gap. In the meantime, if you choose to stick to the fixed investment, no matter what time node is involved, you will eventually get benefits.
Adhere to the fixed investment for one year, which is relatively short. Judging from the historical situation, the probability of a positive return for a fixed investment in one year is about 60%. If the fixed investment time period is extended, the probability of obtaining positive returns will be greatly increased.