In general, after the August 11 exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate has fluctuated significantly in both directions, its flexibility and elasticity have also increased, and the pressure for depreciation has also increased significantly. The operation of the RMB exchange rate shows the following five major characteristics:
1. "Obvious two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate" are the first among them. From the 8.11 exchange rate reform to early March this year, the RMB exchange rate experienced two rounds of depreciation that had a significant impact. Since March 3 this year, the exchange rate has generally been relatively stable and has rebounded slightly.
However, in May and June, especially affected by the Brexit incident, the RMB exchange rate showed a new round of depreciation momentum, and even once broke through 6.7 yuan per US dollar.
2. The exchange rate shows a depreciation trend. In general, both the RMB against the US dollar and the RMB against a basket of currencies have depreciated slightly.
On August 2 this year, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.6451 yuan, depreciating 2.33% from the end of 2015.
According to calculations by the Bank for International Settlements, since the August 11 exchange rate reform to the end of June this year, the nominal effective exchange rate of the RMB has depreciated by 6.21%, and the real effective exchange rate has depreciated by 5.99%.
3. The price difference between offshore and onshore RMB has increased. The price difference between CNH and CNY reached a maximum of more than 1,300 points, which intensified currency speculation in the market.
4. Shift from focusing on a single U.S. dollar to referring to a basket of currencies.
After the 8.11 exchange rate reform, the main feature of the RMB exchange rate operating mechanism is that it has shifted from a single "anchor" to the US dollar to a "double anchor" mechanism, that is, using the US dollar or a basket of currencies as the "anchor" for RMB exchange rate adjustment. "material", which makes the RMB exchange rate fluctuations get rid of the influence of the single U.S. dollar exchange rate.
However, since the US dollar is still the main pricing and settlement currency for my country’s foreign trade and external debts and claims, the impact of changes in the US dollar exchange rate on the RMB exchange rate is still an important factor;
5. The strengthening of market depreciation expectations has intensified the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and increased the pressure of capital outflows.
Since the August 11 exchange rate reform, the spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar fell below 6.7 for the first time on July 7 this year, and was 6.7018 and 6.7070 on July 8 and 11 respectively.
On July 15, it fell below 6.70 again, to 6.7116. From the 18th to the 19th, the spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated between 6.70-6.71.
On July 18, the spot exchange rate of the onshore RMB against the U.S. dollar once fell below the psychological mark of 6.70, which indeed increased the market’s psychological expectations of RMB depreciation.
In fact, it is very difficult to analyze and judge the level and trend of the RMB exchange rate. Generally speaking, with the gradual improvement of the marketization level of the RMB exchange rate, two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate will become the norm, and it should be normal for the RMB to appreciate or depreciate over a period of time.