Before arbitrage trading, analyze the current arbitrage relationship with a chart. In ordinary transactions, charts are the main tools to determine time and provide historical information for price fluctuations. Arbitrage chart is different from general price chart, which records the relationship between contracts in different months. Therefore, as a tool for analyzing and forecasting the market, the arbitrage chart does not pay attention to the absolute price level, but marks the value of the spread in the chart and takes the historical spread as the basis for arbitrage analysis.

In addition, arbitrage often shows a seasonal relationship, that is, it shows the difference in the range of price changes at a specific time. Practice has proved that the coincidence degree is quite high. This kind of arbitrage is seasonal arbitrage, which provides the best profit opportunity in futures trading. In order to make use of seasonality to arbitrage, we must analyze the price data many years ago and study this arbitrage, and we must consider the current supply and demand relationship, and then study and determine whether the past market behavior is applicable in the next few years. This analogy research method is an analytical technique which is synthesized by various market analysis methods, and is used to prove whether the initial incentive factors can happen again in the arbitrage season. In order to increase the credibility of this seasonal trend, it is important to determine the obvious equivalence so that the incentive factors can play a role.

When collecting previous arbitrage data, don't compare the data in different periods. In the case of similar maturities, usually the same supply and demand forces will cause similar arbitrage. Therefore, during the period of sharp price increase, similar price behavior can be obtained by referring to the bullish market in the same period. For example, in the early 1970s in the United States, the "reverse market" dominated the whole market. Later, the relatively normal market structure guided the market trend, but some commodity futures with tight supply, such as coffee and cocoa, remained in a reverse shape. Understanding these factors that cause market imbalances and the reactions of specific commodities to these imbalances can be used for reference in subsequent arbitrage.

According to analysis, there are arbitrage opportunities in the sugar market. Because the spot market of sugar and the recent contract support are obviously strong, but the far-month contract is under strong pressure, the raw sugar will fall and break due to the unfavorable changes in fundamentals, which will bring a lot of pressure to the domestic sugar market. These pressures are also relatively concentrated on the far-month contract. Therefore, the far-month contract will reappear and continue to be discounted. When the absolute spreads of 1209 and 130 1 contract are reduced, we can pay attention to the multiple arbitrage of 1209 contract and the empty 130 1 contract. It is estimated that the maximum discount of Yuan Yue contract can reach 300 ~ 400 yuan/ton.