Pulp prices continued to strengthen, and futures market prices rose, which did not have much impact on most head paper enterprises. It can be said that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. This will cause changes in the industry competition pattern. Under the continuous rise of pulp price, there are two main effects:
1, affected by rising production costs, more industrial capital will be invested in pulp production.
2. With the increase of pulp price, the profit margin of small and medium-sized paper enterprises will be further compressed, and the low-end production capacity of paper enterprises will be released at an accelerated rate, and the production capacity will be concentrated in the head enterprises.
I. Recent Industry Situation
1, the main pulp company in Shanghai commodity futures market rose by more than 20% in February. As of 202 1, 1, the main contract reached 5960 yuan/ton, setting a new high since listing.
2. According to the market analysis, the factors of price increase mainly come from the prohibition of plastic and waste. The ban on plastics has brought about the demand for paper substitutes. 202 1, the plastic ban began in an all-round way. The organization predicts that the demand for white cardboard will increase by 3.5 million tons, and there will be a pulp gap of about 8 million tons this year. In addition, the import of 202 1 waste paper stopped completely, which led to the shortage of domestic pulp and further increased the cost of production enterprises.
3. The announcement of listed companies in the paper industry shows that raw materials mainly based on pulp account for more than 70% of the cost of all kinds of paper, and some kinds of paper even reach 85%.
4. Under the surge of pulp, industrial barriers appeared. Large-scale paper enterprises have abundant stocks and have launched pulp production capacity one after another. However, due to rising costs, small paper enterprises are under pressure. As of today's press release, Sun Paper rose 3.79%, Chenming Paper rose 3.27% and Bohui Paper rose 3.47%.
Second, the price of near-end softwood pulp is difficult to fall at present, and the support of pulp futures contract at 7000 yuan/ton is very strong in recent months. However, in the long run, there are two main reasons for the divergence of softwood pulp:
1, it is unknown whether the shortage of softwood pulp will be alleviated in the second half of the year and whether the port inventory will accumulate again. At the same time, from the demand side, June-August is the off-season of demand for household paper, and there is an oversupply of household paper. After the price increase of white cardboard and cultural paper is digested, there is no demand growth point to reduce the price increase in the distant month.
2. Cork pulp is a variety priced in US dollars. The strength of the US dollar will put pressure on its US dollar pricing, so the rise of the US dollar index in the future will put greater pressure on pulp futures prices. On the whole, the near-end price support of pulp is strong, but the increase rate needs to be treated with caution, and accordingly, it can be hedged by shorting the far moon.
3. The price of pulp is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and cultural paper is still expected to rise. Pulp prices are supported at the current position. Except for some large factories, the inventory of small factories is generally low; Overseas suppliers set up some stocks in China bonded warehouse to meet the downstream demand, so it is normal for the port stocks to increase slightly. Considering that the world's major pulp mills are holding together to raise prices and the supply and demand are in tight balance, it is expected that the probability of pulp price increase in April is still relatively high.