At present, the factors that affect crude oil prices and crude oil futures prices mainly include the following aspects. Galaxy futures summarized the factors affecting the trend of crude oil under the comprehensive action of the following main factors:
1. Current factors affecting crude oil futures prices:
Crude oil demand
Oil demand is mainly determined by the world economic development level and economic structure changes, the development of alternative energy sources and the application of energy-saving technologies. Global oil consumption is obviously positively related to the global economic growth rate. Global economic growth or unexpected growth will affect the international crude oil market price. The strong economic growth of developing countries such as China and India has also led to a sharp increase in the demand for crude oil, which has led to the soaring price of crude oil in the world. Among them, China's demand for oil drives the global oil consumption growth 1/3. On the other hand, the abnormally high oil price will inevitably hinder the development of the world economy, and the slowdown of global economic growth will affect the increase of oil demand. The cost of alternative energy will determine the upper limit of oil price. When the oil price is higher than the cost of alternative energy, consumers will tend to use alternative energy. Energy conservation will alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand in the world oil market. At present, all countries are vigorously developing renewable energy and energy-saving technologies, which will inevitably have an impact on the long-term trend of oil prices. Economic growth is the main factor affecting the demand for crude oil. In order to plan the growth of crude oil consumption, it is necessary to predict the gross national product of consuming countries. Different countries and regions have different growth ratios of crude oil consumption to GDP. In the economic growth of developing countries, the oil consumption per unit economic activity is relatively high.
2. Factors affecting crude oil futures prices:
Crude oil supply
The supply factors that affect the price of crude oil mainly include world oil reserves, oil supply structure and oil production cost. Compared with sufficient demand data, the supply data of crude oil is relatively lacking. The main reason is that the supply of crude oil is relatively concentrated relative to the demand side, which makes investors have doubts when judging the future supply of crude oil. Crude oil supply mainly comes from OPEC countries and non-OPEC countries, and relevant data can be obtained through data collation provided by many institutions. The most important thing is the process data published by the International Energy Agency and the US Department of Energy. Oil exporting countries 13 member countries account for about 40% of the global oil supply. The task of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is to adjust the "supply and demand balance in the crude oil market", thus affecting the price of crude oil. It is difficult to estimate that the output of non-OPEC countries is always maximized. In addition, in the supply of crude oil, overcapacity and refining bottlenecks are also factors that need to be considered. At the turn of the century, a new round of mergers and acquisitions initiated by multinational oil companies in the United States and Europe through capital operation has made the world petrochemical industry more and more concentrated. With the increasing control of petrochemical giants over global oil resources, technology and market, the development and competition of the world petrochemical industry and the fluctuation of oil prices have had a far-reaching impact. In addition, the cost of oil production will also have an impact on oil supply. As a kind of non-renewable energy, the production cost of oil will affect the intertemporal production allocation decision of producers, and then affect the market supply, indirectly causing oil price fluctuations. The lower limit of the world oil price is generally determined by the oil production in high-cost areas, and the oil in low-cost areas determines the price fluctuation range.
3. Factors affecting crude oil futures prices: short-term factors. Short-term factors affect oil prices by affecting the relationship between supply and demand in a short time or changing people's expectations of the relationship between supply and demand.
(1) Factors influencing the price of crude oil futures due to sudden major political events: Crude oil futures not only have the attributes of general commodities, but also have the attributes of strategic materials, and their prices and supply are greatly influenced by political forces and political situations. In recent years, with the development of political multipolarization, economic globalization and production internationalization, competing for oil resources and controlling the oil market have become important reasons for the oil market turmoil and soaring oil prices.
(2) Inventory changes of crude oil and crude oil futures exchanges that affect crude oil futures prices: crude oil inventory is a buffer between supply and demand and has a positive effect on stabilizing oil prices. The inventory level of oecd has become the vane of international oil price, and the influence of commercial inventory on oil price is obviously stronger than that of conventional inventory. When the futures price is much higher than the spot price, oil companies tend to increase commercial inventory, stimulate the spot price to rise and reduce the spot price difference of futures; When the futures price is lower than the spot price, oil companies tend to reduce commercial inventory, and the spot price drops, forming a reasonable price difference with the futures price.
(3) The market intervention of OPEC and the International Energy Agency (iea), the factors that affect the price of crude oil futures: OPEC controls most of the world's excess oil production capacity, and iea has a large amount of oil reserves, which can change the market supply and demand pattern in a short time, thus changing people's expectations of oil price trends. The main policy of OPEC is to limit production and protect prices and reduce prices to protect production. The 26 member countries of iea * * * control a large amount of oil stocks to deal with emergencies.
(4) Short-term capital flow in the international capital market that affects the factors of crude oil futures price: Since the 1990s, the international oil market has been characterized by a significant increase in the influence of the futures market, and now a price formation mechanism has been formed from the futures market to the spot market. Although speculation in the international crude oil market is not the inducement of oil price rise, due to the lack of investment opportunities in the global financial market, a large amount of funds will enter the international commodity market, especially the crude oil market, which will inevitably push up the international oil price and seriously deviate from the fundamentals.
(5) Factors affecting the price of crude oil futures exchange rate changes: there is a weak correlation between oil price changes and exchange rate changes of the US dollar and major international currencies. Due to the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, the real income of petroleum products priced in US dollars declined, which led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain the high price of crude oil as a response.
(6) Abnormal climate: Many countries in Europe and America use oil as heating fuel. Therefore, when the climate changes abnormally, it will cause short-term changes in fuel oil demand, thus driving the price changes of crude oil and other oil products. In addition, abnormal weather may cause damage to oil production facilities, lead to supply interruption, and then affect oil prices.
(7) Interest rate change of influencing factors of crude oil futures price: In the standard non-renewable resource model, the increase of interest rate will lead to the decrease of future mining value relative to current mining value, thus making the mining path convex to the present and far away from the future. High interest rate will reduce capital investment, leading to a smaller initial mining scale; High interest rates will also increase the capital cost of alternative technologies, leading to a decline in mining speed.
(8) Tax policies affecting crude oil futures prices:
Government intervention will make the market consumption curve convex to the present or the future. The tax effect of intertemporal oil exploitation mode depends on the present tax value that changes with time. For example, with the passage of time, the reduction of the present value of tax will change the decision of mining order. Compared with no taxation, taxation will eventually reduce the net income at any time, and will also reduce the mining enthusiasm in the corresponding period. Taxes will reduce the return on investment of newly discovered reserves.