Dong Chao, a senior analyst of Shenwan Futures Energy, believes that the core focus of the current market lies in the new round of US-Iran talks on June 10. Considering that the United States has a tough attitude and Iran is not no way back, the possibility of reaching an agreement in this round of talks is lower than market expectations, and short-term oil prices still have upward momentum.
Gu Shuangfei said that according to market expectations, the demand has reached the level of 98 million barrels per day, and this level was only about 2 million barrels per day before returning to the epidemic.
Whether the market demand can break through the high point of 20 19 is doubtful from the current situation of refined oil consumption. At present, the recovery of crude oil demand is mainly driven by the increase in gasoline consumption brought about by the lifting of the epidemic, but the diesel consumption, which is highly related to industrial demand, has not been effectively improved, diesel is still in a state of accumulation, and the diesel cracking price difference continues to be low.
Gu Shuangfei, an analyst at nanhua futures Nenghua, said: "For China, the introduction of the consumption tax policy on some refined oil imports and the suppression of the resale of crude oil quotas have also curbed the consumption of crude oil by China's excess capacity, which is expected to account for 3% of China's crude oil imports, reducing the demand by about 320,000 barrels per day."
Gu Shuangfei further analyzed, "Overall, demand recovery is still a general trend, but the recovery speed will gradually slow down, and it is still doubtful whether it can be restored to the pre-epidemic level. From the perspective of monetary environment, the cost of exchanging inflation for employment growth has been increasing, and quantitative austerity is only a matter of time. At the same time, the US dollar index has been hovering around 90, with a limited decline in the later period. The bullish factors brought by quantitative easing to oil prices may have been exhausted.
As for the negotiations between the United States and Iran, although they have not been effectively promoted recently, from the news, it is only a matter of time before the sanctions against Iran are released. If the sanctions against Iran are released, it is estimated that the market will increase production and supply by 6.5438+0.4 million barrels per day, and there will be 40-65 million barrels of floating warehouses, which will also have an impact on the market. "
Gu Shuangfei concluded that in the short term, various indicators show that crude oil still presents a strong market structure, and it is expected that oil prices will still fluctuate and rise, but the expected overdraft of demand will prompt the peak of oil prices to come ahead of schedule. As the recovery of demand in the market outlook slows down and the market supply continues to increase, the oil price may turn from prosperity to decline in the later period. If there are more than one order in the early stage, you can continue to hold it in the short term. It is not recommended to bring more into the market in the near future. You can wait and see, wait until the market gives an admission signal, and gradually try to empty it.
Based on the recent continuous rise in international oil prices, some institutions expect that the domestic retail price of refined oil products will open an upward adjustment window. Zhuo Chuang Information issued a document saying that according to the current refined oil pricing mechanism, the rate of change of crude oil is in a positive range, and the retail price of refined oil in this round will open an upward adjustment window. According to Zhuo Chuang information data monitoring model, as of the close of June 7, the change rate of domestic reference crude oil on the seventh working day was 3.3 1%, corresponding to the increase of gasoline and diesel oil 140 yuan/ton, and the price adjustment window was June 24:00 1 1.
"Domestic refined oil prices are dynamically adjusted according to the changes in the average oil prices in the three places. These three places are Brent, Dubai and Sinta. The next price adjustment window is June 1 1 day at 24: 00. At the current rate of change, oil prices will rise by about 4%. It is expected to increase by 170 yuan/ton. " Dong Chao pointed out.
The main driving force for the recent rise in oil prices lies in three points.
1, there have been new twists and turns in the US-Iran nuclear talks. The two sides were close to reaching an agreement before, but there were still some differences in the end. The United States says that even if the Iranian nuclear deal is restarted, including hundreds of other sanctions imposed by the Trump administration, it will remain unchanged, which is unacceptable to Iran. They want to lift all sanctions at once.
2. The epidemic situation has been gradually controlled, and the global demand continues to improve. At present, the global epidemic has been gradually controlled. The daily increment in the United States has dropped to about 6,543.8+0,000, in Europe to about 20,000, and in India to about 6,543.8+0.5 million from the high point of 400,000. With the comprehensive coverage of vaccines, major institutions are generally optimistic about the demand for crude oil in the later period, and believe that the demand will increase by about 6 million barrels per day in the second half of the year.
3. The easing policies of all countries in the world, especially the United States. The United States has continuously introduced various stimulus and easing policies to benefit oil prices. Biden's government has successively launched a 2 trillion infrastructure plan and a 6 trillion budget plan. Yellen has repeatedly said that he will not raise interest rates in advance, which has played a very good role in stimulating oil prices.