"In the early American stock market, short selling was common. When the stock price rises more than its value, some speculators think that if the stock price rises too much, it may fall. Therefore, speculators borrow securities to sell short. The source of borrowing securities is the manipulation group in the securities market. After the price of securities rose, short sellers continued to sell short. The manipulator will continue to buy the stocks sold in the securities market, and the stocks will be provided to short sellers to continue short selling. Finally, the number of short-selling stocks exceeds the number of circulating stocks. When this situation continues until the short seller becomes alert or desperate and tries to make up for the short-selling stock, the manipulator also demands to take back the borrowed stock. At this point, short sellers have no other sources of securities, so they have to settle accounts with the manipulator, and the price is determined by the manipulator at will. This is called controlled scrolling. "
There is also natural short selling, which means that when several groups compete for the controlling right of the same company, the stock price rises, and unsuspecting people start short selling, and finally they are manipulated to short selling. As a result, they fluctuate repeatedly in the low box for a long time, which makes the market guess the subject matter, the fundamentals or news of individual stocks improve significantly and the subject matter gradually, and the stocks that have risen for a long time are finally suppressed before shipment.
In the stock exchanges of capitalist countries and old China, powerful bulls once manipulated the market and made huge profits. Its method is to secretly control the source of a speculative object, so that short sellers can't get the amount they should pay when they deliver, and they have to reluctantly give up what they want when the price meets the requirements of the bulls. At this point, the bears are pressed to get out, while the bulls are willing to raise prices and make huge profits.
The pilot of margin financing and securities lending in China is about to be implemented, and all parties concerned should be highly alert to the risk of short selling of margin financing and securities lending. The emergence of short selling mechanism will change the profit model of the market, making the expectations of both long and short sides on the rise and fall of stocks opposite. Both sides only hope that the stock price will develop in their own direction, and even take corresponding trading activities to intervene in the direction of stock price changes. Many parties may continue to buy or even raise funds to buy, and the short side may continue to sell bonds or sell existing cash bonds.
The risk of securities lending trading lies in limited stocks versus unlimited funds. Margin trading refers to short sellers borrowing shares from other shareholders to sell, which improves the efficiency of using idle shares, but the total stock circulation of the company will never increase. It is different from naked short selling in foreign stock markets. Naked short selling is selling out of thin air in the market without borrowing stocks in advance. In a short period of time, the number of short-selling stocks in the market is sometimes several times the actual circulation.
According to the relevant provisions of China's margin financing and securities lending, funds and other heavy stocks with a large amount of funds may become the underlying stocks of margin financing and securities lending. If market participants think that some of these stocks are overvalued relative to the broader market and then empty such stocks, according to the regulations, when the margin of margin financing and securities lending reaches 25% of the outstanding shares, they will be suspended from selling. In other words, for the 200 million shares in circulation, brokers are allowed to sell 50 million shares at most, and then they can't suppress them any more. However, many large funds are sufficient, and many parties drain the liquidity of securities lending, and the stock price will inevitably skyrocket. According to the regulations, the guarantee ratio of customers in credit transactions shall not be less than 130%, otherwise they may be forced to close their positions, and the period of securities lending shall not exceed six months. Then the empty side can only recover at a high price due to the situation, and even there is no stock to buy and it is impossible to close the position, which breeds great risks.
Because the existing screening requirements for the underlying stocks are too loose, it may become the source of short-selling risk. For example, the selection of the stock subject to securities lending requires "no less than 4,000 shareholders" and "no less than 200 million shares in circulation". According to this reasoning, the average shareholding limit of each household is about 50 thousand shares, even if large funds are highly piled up, it is difficult to violate this clause. In this way, it is possible to include stocks with high capital control into the underlying stocks.
The share-trading system is unable to prevent and control the risk of short-selling accumulation. In order to prevent large investors from taking excessive positions in a company in the market, it is stipulated in the Supplementary Notice of the Listing Rules of Shanghai Stock Exchange on the Distribution of Company's Equity that the public ownership is less than 25% of the total shares of the company, and the listing can be suspended. At the same time, the supplementary notice excludes "shareholders holding more than 65,438+00% shares and their concerted actions" from the concept of "social public". However, a huge number of shares within 65,438+00% are obviously considered as social public shares, and the cumulative position limit of all funds managed by a fund company on a stock does not exceed 65,438+00% of the company's total share capital. Therefore, all funds are regarded as public shares. In this way, as long as several fund companies join hands with the major shareholders of the company, no matter how the short sellers suppress the underlying stocks, all the large funds can be won together, which can not only meet the requirements of their position limits, but also meet the requirements of the share-trading system for the minimum proportion of public shares.
The existing laws and regulations to combat manipulation are also unable to prevent and control the risk of rolling. Because the total number of domestic fund companies is less than 60, there is a high probability of tacit offensive and defensive alliances and manipulation among major funds. Although the "Measures for Determining Manipulation in the Securities Market" refines the criteria for determining manipulation, there is still a lack of effective regulation on manipulation of large funds such as funds. Shorting is like putting a moth to the fire.
Market operations such as asset reorganization, asset injection and refinancing may lead to short selling risk. For example, by participating in high-priced issuance and injecting real money, the stock valuation center has been improved. In addition, market operations such as asset reorganization and asset injection also make the actual connotation represented by the stock subject erratic, and the black-bone chicken may become a phoenix at any time. Major news such as company announcement and reorganization need to be suspended. After the stock resumed trading, the daily limit was unlimited for several days. How do short sellers buy back before suspension?
In the late 1970s and early 1980s, a fund manager named Jock Robinson managed a very successful hedge fund. He is keen on financial analysis and often empties a large number of inflated stocks until the fraud is exposed, so he is called "the devil". Later, "Evil God" shorted the stock of a company called "Casino Resort". At that time, after careful study, he thought that the company's performance was not as optimistic as the company boasted, so he went up and sold it. However, as the stock price rose further, he had no money to add margin and had to leave in a daze. Afterwards, this stock really fell badly, which proved that the original judgment of "Evil God" was correct.
After digesting the negative impact of the strong rebound of the US dollar exchange rate on copper prices, supported by the fundamental shortage, copper prices fluctuated and rose, continuing the bull market pattern. In March, LME3 comprehensive copper surged above the $3,000 mark again, while Shanghai Copper performed more prominently and the contract frequency reached a new high. With the coming of the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic spot supply is still very tight. It can be expected that the short market will still dominate the pre-holiday copper price trend.
Extremely tight supply is still the main feature of copper market at home and abroad, so the copper price is strongly supported under the good fundamental situation of short supply, and the serious shortage of supply has also become the killer weapon for domestic and foreign bulls to short the market. On the third Wednesday of 2005 1 month (65438+1 month 19), the spot premium of LME copper remained above 120 USD before the final delivery date of the1month contract, and the spot price was very firm. However, after the delivery of the contract in June 65438+ 10, the spot premium originally expected by the market did not appear, but gradually enlarged to 6544. Historically, the spot premium of LME copper has reached a high level of more than 300 dollars, and the stocks of London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange are less than 6.5438+0.2 million tons. Moreover, in the first quarter, due to factory overhaul, the output growth will obviously slow down. Once the future inventory continues to drop to an extremely low water level, the contradiction between supply and demand will intensify, and whether the history of high spot price premium will repeat itself is indeed worthy of investors' close attention. While LME copper industry maintains interval consolidation, Shanghai copper contracts frequently hit new highs, and the short market seems to be getting worse. In addition to the firm price performance in the international market, which laid the foundation for Shanghai Copper bulls to short the market before the Spring Festival holiday, there are also many conditions for the domestic market to squeeze the market. First of all, the consumption momentum in the domestic market before the holiday is still very strong. On the one hand, the enterprise itself is a relative consumption peak season before the end of the year.
On the other hand, domestic downstream enterprises often have inventory preparation behavior before the Spring Festival holiday, and the demand will be relatively strong. Although the domestic spot copper price has reached a high level around 3 1.800 yuan/ton, the market is still in short supply. We have learned from some spot suppliers that the domestic spot transaction price has been maintained at 3 1, 500-3 1 and 800 yuan/ton recently, that is, the spot premium has reached 1, 000- 1, 654,38+0,000 yuan/ton, and consumers. Secondly, it is difficult to fundamentally improve the tight domestic supply situation in the short term. On the one hand, the shortage of peak transportation capacity in Spring Festival travel rush makes it difficult for domestic copper transportation to be smooth; On the other hand, the serious loss of imported copper makes it very difficult for domestic traders to import copper, and the expected import volume is limited. Due to insufficient supply and strong consumption, the contradiction between supply and demand in the future market will become more prominent. Thirdly, the advance of the final delivery date of the CU0502 contract makes the bears more passive in time, which is more conducive to the short-selling market of the bulls. As February 4th is the last trading day before the domestic long holiday, according to the regulations of Shanghai Futures Exchange, the last trading day of February contract of CU0502 is also advanced to February 4th, which is nearly 10 trading days earlier than before. Therefore, for the short sellers of the Shanghai Copper CU0502 contract, the time for handling positions will undoubtedly be very urgent, and the operation will be particularly passive. After all, except for some hedging positions, most short positions have no spot background, and short positions in virtual positions must face the reality of seeking opportunities to leave. The contract position of Shanghai Copper CU0502 is still as high as 35,000 lots, and the unilateral position is 1.7 thousand lots (more than 80,000 tons). According to the statistics of delivery volume for several months, the domestic delivery volume is generally around 6,543,800 tons. According to the position level, there are still nearly 70,000 tons of short positions to be left in the next 10 trading day. Once the bulls take advantage of the situation and take short positions in line with the trend of LME copper, a large number of short positions will have to be forced to lighten up and leave, and even lead to panic short market. 65438+1October 16, the surge of Shanghai Copper before the delivery of the CU050 1 contract was caused by the panic of the empty side.
However, under the threat of short-selling market, some external factors may have a negative impact on LME copper price to a certain extent, thus affecting the short-selling market of Shanghai Copper. Among these external factors, the most important is the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate. Although the market has digested most of the factors of the rebound of the US dollar exchange rate, some data show that the inflationary pressure in the United States is increasing, and the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike may accelerate. With the rebound of the dollar exchange rate, the amount of capital flowing into the United States seems to be increasing gradually. In addition, the European Central Bank's opposition to the excessive appreciation of the euro and the US government's speech on re-strengthening the US dollar policy have also greatly promoted the buying of the US dollar. The USD/EUR rose to the key mark of 1.3000, and the USD index also rebounded to around 84. Technically, there seems to be room for further rebound of the US dollar exchange rate. Although the influence of US dollar exchange rate on copper price has weakened, copper price has risen to a high level, and there are many irrational factors in the short market, so investors should remain rational in operation.