First of all, let's analyze the main reasons for this situation. At present, the main tone of macro-economy is "restructuring, deleveraging and promoting reform". Although there are occasional episodes of "steady growth", it is still in a subordinate position. The result of these policy combinations is a slow decline in the economic situation. As a barometer of macro-economy, the stock market has formed a pattern that it is easy to fall but difficult to rise. In fact, the occasional micro-stimulus policy and the management requirements of the so-called 2000-point policy bottom make the stock market lack motivation, while the decline is supported. This is also the author's repeated judgment of breaking 2000 points, but in fact there is no underlying reason. It is also the place where the author makes mistakes in judgment. It may be that the author underestimated the effectiveness of the policy bottom and violated the market rules. A netizen once said: "Stock trading should also listen to the party." So it seems reasonable, even deep!
I remember this description when I was reading the exposition of laws in Marxist philosophy in college. That is, law is an objective existence independent of human will. Law, people can know it, follow it and use it to serve mankind, but they can't change it. Violation of the law will be punished by law! In fact, the stock market has its own operating rules, and it is not only futile to artificially try to change its operating rules, but also will be ruthlessly punished by law.
Back to the stock market, can the policy disturbance shake the operation law of the stock market itself? No, absolutely not! Moreover, what we need to do is to prevent the sudden and retaliatory plunge of the stock market!
So, what can be done to break the existing equilibrium pattern of the stock market? Of course, there are two possibilities to break this balance. One is an upward breakthrough; The second is to fall below. In the past, the author has repeatedly expounded the reasons why the Shanghai stock market will fall below 2000 points from the aspects of policy, fundamentals and technology. This view is also persisting today. What's more, the stock market law that will fall for a long time also reveals the final pattern of decline. As for the upward breakthrough, unless the central bank comprehensively reduces RRR and cuts interest rates, it is unlikely. However, under the current situation, the overall interest rate cut of RRR in the third quarter and the rate cut are also very small. What is the probability of an upward breakthrough? And breaking it also requires an external force. What will this external force be? In my humble opinion, nothing more than three aspects. One is the delivery from stock index futures. That is, a period of time before the delivery of stock index futures in the middle and late of each month. The second is from the comprehensive disclosure period of poor performance stocks in the middle and late period disclosed in the interim report. It is also in the middle and late August, most likely in the middle of August. Because this is the * * * period of futures delivery and disclosure of poor performance stocks. Third, emergencies from home and abroad. For example, the further fermentation of the European debt crisis; The sudden collapse of the American stock market; The international situation in Ukraine and Iraq suddenly deteriorated; The outbreak of sudden default of domestic real estate trust and so on.
In short, the stock market can be short-term, so as to emphasize stocks and ignore the market. But we need to be on high alert, alert and alert! Get ready to run away at any time!