20 16-05-25 13:39:54
China's economy has entered a new normal, and China's food industry has also shown corresponding changes and trends, which has brought new challenges and opportunities to China's food enterprises. How to deal with these changes, turn challenges into opportunities, and achieve greater development is a major issue facing the food industry in China.
With the transformation of China's economy from external demand to internal demand, the quality and sustainability of economic growth will also be improved. Generally speaking, the future growth of grain and agricultural demand is similar to the overall economic growth, that is, it is driven by the past quantity, gradually transformed into value-driven, and changed from eating more to eating well.
Related reports: The "Report on In-depth Investigation and Development Trend of China Food Market in 20 16-2022" released by Zhiyan Consulting shows that according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 20 14- 12 years, the food industrial enterprises above designated size (including tobacco) in China completed their main business income 100. The total tax revenue was 924 1.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%.
Sales revenue of China food industry in 2008 -20 14
First, the demand growth rate of the food industry is expected to slow down, and the future development will be more value-driven.
With the transformation of China's economy from external demand to internal demand, the quality and sustainability of economic growth will also be improved. Generally speaking, the demand growth of food and agricultural products in the future is similar to the overall economic growth, that is, from quantity-driven to value-driven in the past, from eating more to eating well.
From the perspective of the whole food industry, with the increasing downward pressure on the economy in the future, the growth rate and profitability of the food industry will fall back. Taking 73 listed companies in the food and beverage industry in China A-share market as an example, this paper analyzes the changes of operating data of food enterprises in recent three years, and finds that the year-on-year increase of operating income and net profit of food industry shows a downward trend. In 20 14, the revenue of 73 A-share listed companies was 373 1 billion yuan, up by 1% year-on-year, and the net profit was 48.7 billion yuan, down by 8% year-on-year. Compared with previous years, the development speed of the industry has obviously slowed down.
China food industry development 20 14 (family, 100 million yuan)
From the perspective of segmentation, the new normal has brought some structural changes to food and agricultural products:
1, grain and oilseed consumption: rice and wheat were flat as a whole, while corn and soybean continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down.
20 10-20 14 annual grain output (unit: 100 million tons)
Comparison of the output and consumption of three major grains in China in 201-2015 years.
20 1 1-20 15 Proportion of consumption structure of grain varieties
2. Meat consumption The per capita consumption of pork has reached a high level, and the growth is basically saturated; The future consumption growth will mainly come from beef and poultry meat. Due to the relatively low price level, the consumption of poultry may increase significantly.
China is a big country in cattle and sheep production and consumption, with mutton production ranking first in the world and beef production ranking third after Brazil and the United States. In recent years, the production of cattle and sheep in China has been growing steadily. In 20 13, 48.282 million cows and 280 million sheep were slaughtered in China, increasing by 26.8% and 34.7% respectively compared with 2000, with an average annual increase of 1.8% and 2.3%. The output of beef and mutton was 6.732 million tons and 408 1 10,000 tons, respectively, up by 3 1.2% and 54.5% year-on-year, with average annual growth of 2. 1% and 3.4%. In recent years, the consumption structure of beef and mutton has remained at around 13%, and in 20 13 years, beef and mutton accounted for 7.9% and 4.8% of the total meat output respectively.
In 20 14, China's total meat output was 83.8724 million tons, an increase of 429140,000 tons compared with 7958140,000 tons in 20 13, with a year-on-year increase of 5.39%.
20 14 latest changes in meat production in various provinces
20 14 Proportion of meat production in the latest provinces
3. Dairy consumption Dairy consumption will continue to increase, but the overall consumption growth rate will slow down.
Statistics of national dairy product output and growth rate in 2006-20 15.
Per capita consumption of liquid milk in China (kg/year)
4. Other industries in the lower reaches of the food industry chain have bigger income elasticity of demand and more diversified market segments.
Second, food consumption continues to escalate, and category channels are regionally differentiated.
With the fundamental change of domestic supply and demand and the continuous upgrading of domestic food consumption, under the new economic normal, food will show the differentiation trend of consumer goods, consumption channels and consumption regions.
1. Differentiation between food and consumer goods With the gradual maturity of the food consumption market, the proportion of general and adequate expenditures has gradually decreased, while the proportion of consumer expenditures reflecting the quality of life and lifestyle has increased year by year. In the past two years, from the price point of view, the average annual price increase of high-end products related to health or improving consumers' quality of life has exceeded the inflation rate of 2.5%. However, the price increase of mass consumer goods, such as carbonated drinks, is obviously lower than the inflation rate, and some are still negative. From the perspective of consumption behavior, in the same category, consumers are increasingly choosing to buy high-end items, that is, items with prices higher than the average price of the same category by 20%.
2. Differentiation of food consumption channels In the past 30 years, in the field of food retail, the continuous expansion of new channels has eroded the share of traditional channels. At present, the sales growth of traditional grocery stores and hypermarkets has generally slowed down; In contrast, the situation of supermarkets, small supermarkets and convenience stores is better, with an increase of 9%. The rise of e-commerce has brought great pressure to Shang Chao.
3. Differentiation of food consumption regions China's first tier cities is still an important position for fast-moving consumer goods, but it is not the fastest growing place. The growth rate of fast-moving consumer goods in first-and second-tier cities slowed down significantly. In 20 14, the compound annual growth rate of retail market in first-and second-tier cities was only 2%, while that in small and medium-sized cities (third-,fourth-and fifth-tier cities) was as high as 7.7%. Fast-moving consumer goods enterprises, including food and beverage enterprises, are rearranging their marketing and sales resources and developing into small and medium-sized cities.
Third, the expectation of RMB appreciation may be reversed, which will have different degrees of impact on food enterprises.
The reversal of RMB appreciation expectation will affect the future development of China's food industry and agriculture to varying degrees in many aspects, such as the import demand of agricultural products, the cost of raw materials, domestic and overseas financing and overseas merger and reorganization plans. Food enterprises, especially those whose main raw materials come from overseas, must bear a new round of cost fluctuations. However, due to the fierce competition in downstream industries, the increase in these costs is difficult to be reflected in the price of end products.
1. RMB depreciation on grain and oil has limited impact on grain and oil demand. Due to the high self-sufficiency rate and the government's trade quota protection policy, China's grain imports are very small. Relatively speaking, China's oilseeds are heavily dependent on imports. Although the impact on the total import volume is limited, the change of RMB exchange rate may change the composition of import sources.
20 1 1-20 15 the proportion of China's three major grain output and import.
2. The growth rate of dairy industry has slowed down in recent years, mainly due to the high price of 201314, the gradual maturity of the market and the spillover effect of government anti-corruption. The slight depreciation of RMB has not had much impact on the import demand of dairy products.
3. Animal protein Generally speaking, the devaluation of the currency has limited impact on China's meat imports. Especially pork and poultry, imports only account for a small part of the total meat consumption. Since 20 12, the local beef market in China has been in short supply for a long time, and the dependence on imported beef has been increasing, so the global beef price has shown an upward trend. Currency devaluation will bring greater price pressure to beef imports, thus affecting the growth rate of imported beef.
Market size of beef consumption in China in 2007-20 14.
Spatial prediction of beef consumption growth
4. Beverages In recent years, the reduction of tariffs has strengthened the competitiveness of imported wine and has a group of loyal customers. The depreciation of RMB makes some wine importers consider raising prices to get more profits, which will bring opportunities to domestic wine brands. The high profit of liquor industry and the environment of RMB depreciation make this industry favored by foreign investors.
Output of soft drinks in China from 20 10 to 20 14.
Growth trend of soft drink industry (%)
Per capita consumption of soft drinks in China
In 20 15, the total amount of wine imported from China reached 555,263,533 liters, up 44.58% year-on-year; The import value was US$ 2,038,936,065,438+065,438+0, up 34.30% year-on-year, and the wine market accelerated after the recovery.
20 15 China liquor import statistics.
5. The devaluation of RMB in packaged food has little effect on imported packaged food.
Four, make good use of two markets and two kinds of resources, food enterprises must speed up going out.
The population of China accounts for nearly 20% of the world, while the cultivated land and fresh water resources only account for 10% and 6% respectively. In view of the limited resources, our government has always emphasized that "food is basically self-sufficient and rations are absolutely safe". Specifically, for the main rations, that is, wheat and rice, adhere to and improve the minimum protective price purchase policy to protect farmers' interests and enthusiasm for growing grain. For other agricultural products, such as corn, soybeans, rapeseed, etc., the government will reduce its intervention to varying degrees, pay more attention to the use of domestic and foreign markets, domestic resources and foreign resources, and import moderately on the basis of ensuring domestic production, thus effectively ensuring national food security.
During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the import and export trade of agricultural products and food changed from a small surplus to a deficit. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the food import and export trade deficit has further expanded and will expand in the future.
To a great extent, China's resources are complementary to those of the world. Our government encourages a group of enterprises with strength and global strategy to go abroad. In this context, some enterprises participate in the global supply chain through direct investment and supply chain cooperation. The new policy of "One Belt, One Road" promulgated by the government supports agriculture to go abroad and establish cooperative relations with some resource-rich countries, thus maintaining the supply stability of China and the world.
Fifth, food safety supervision has been continuously improved, and traceability construction of meat and vegetables has been accelerated.
Intelligent small household appliances, food safety, non-fried instant noodles, children's safety watches, jewelry, casual clothes, small household appliances, flavor fermented products, food and beverage, soft drinks, dairy textiles, etc. In the past few years, a series of food safety incidents have been triggered due to the uneven distribution of benefits in all links of the food supply chain and poor supervision, which has had a negative impact on the development of the industry and consumer confidence.
At the level of government supervision, in recent years, the China Municipal Government has continuously improved food safety management. 20 15, 10, 1, the strictest food safety law in history was formally implemented, which put forward higher requirements for food safety management, and the state also explicitly proposed to establish a food safety traceability system. It is estimated that from 20 15 to around 2020, the traceability construction of meat and vegetable foods in China will be accelerated. On the one hand, we should speed up the construction and acceptance of pilot cities; On the other hand, governments at all levels are expected to speed up the construction of a full-coverage circulation traceability system. It is estimated that there are four main directions for the traceability construction of food circulation: first, expand the coverage area; The second is to broaden the scope of traceability; The third is infiltration along the upstream and downstream of planting, breeding, food processing and catering; The fourth is to explore model innovation.
With the further improvement of consumers' awareness of food safety, food enterprises will actively explore from reality and accelerate the establishment of a food quality and safety guarantee system that adapts to their own characteristics.