During the current cycle, US crude oil inventories continued to decline, but the crude oil output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reached a new high in July 2065438+2005, and Saudi Arabia's production reduction was also decreasing. Under the long-short game, the international crude oil price fluctuated lower.
As of the close of August 16 local time, US WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.62% to 46.78 USD/barrel; Brent crude oil futures closed down 1.04% at $50.27/barrel.
Affected by the continuous downward trend of international crude oil prices, the upward adjustment of domestic refined oil prices has been narrowing. Many institutions predict that 18 domestic refined oil price adjustment will be stranded.
Trend chart of international crude oil futures.
According to the current refined oil pricing mechanism, domestic oil prices are adjusted every ten working days. If the price adjustment range is less than 50 yuan/ton, it will not be adjusted, and the unadjusted amount will be accumulated or offset in the next price adjustment.
The monitoring model shows that by the close of August 16, the change rate of domestic reference crude oil on the 9th working day was 0.78%, corresponding to the increase of gasoline and diesel oil by 27 yuan/ton.
On the 9th working day of this round, with reference to the crude oil change rate 1.45%, it is estimated that 50 yuan/ton will be raised temporarily. At present, the increase of oil price on 18 will continue to shrink, and the possibility of stranding will not be ruled out.
Refined oil analysts also believe that there is only one working day before the price adjustment, and it is expected that the rate of change of crude oil may continue to decline in the later period, and the corresponding increase in refined oil does not meet the price adjustment conditions.
Since 20 17, the domestic retail price limit of refined oil has experienced six drops, six rises and three stranded * * 15 rounds of pricing cycle. By the end of the last round of price adjustment, gasoline and diesel decreased by 355/ ton and 340 yuan/ton respectively during the year. After this price adjustment, the price adjustment pattern will be changed to "six rises, six falls and four stranded".
It is expected that the downward trend of international crude oil inventories will be reversed, and the crude oil output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will continue to increase, which will aggravate the market's concern about oversupply. The downward trend of crude oil prices will show signs, and the market shock is expected to end, so we need to be alert to the risk of plunge.
In the domestic retail market, the recent noise of price war between main gas stations and private gas stations has passed, but the preferential policies are still going on. Many gas stations of Sinopec and PetroChina offer preferential rates of 1.2- 1.3 yuan/liter, while most private gas stations offer preferential rates of 0.5- 1.5 yuan/liter.
The fundamentals of domestic crude oil are also difficult to improve. It is expected that domestic refined oil prices will be stable in the later period. With the increase of sales pressure, the possibility of sharp price reduction and promotion at gas stations is not ruled out.