According to institutional analysis, due to the publication of USDA data, the price of CBOT soybean contract in 10 futures market rose sharply, with an increase of more than 5%, and the price reached 1485.75 cents/bushel! Due to the strong soybean market in the international market, the spot market of soybean meal in the domestic market "skyrocketed" after the Mid-Autumn Festival. The mainstream market price has risen to 4850 ~ 4950 yuan/ton, and the quotations of oil plants in some cities have risen to more than 5000 yuan/ton!
At present, the scale of soybean arrival in Hong Kong continued to decrease in September, the inventory of oil plants continued to be consumed, the supply pressure of soybean meal increased sharply, while the demand side continued to pick up, the supply and demand were unbalanced, and the price would still be dominated by strong shocks. However, the domestic regulatory measures to auction 500,000 tons of soybeans every week have also hindered the further rise of the soybean meal market!
Due to the rise of soybean meal market, domestic mainstream feed enterprises have started the price increase mode one after another, and pig feed, livestock feed and aquatic products have all increased to varying degrees. For the pig breeding end, the cost of raising pigs will also increase greatly due to the rise of soybean meal market!
According to institutional analysis, the increase of soybean meal price has an impact on the increase of breeding cost. Generally speaking, for every increase of soybean meal price 100 yuan/ton, the feed cost will increase by 30 yuan/ton, and the pig breeding cost will also increase by 0.09 yuan/kg! Of course, this is mainly estimated according to pig breeding, the feed-meat ratio is 3: 1, and the proportion of soybean meal in feed components is 20%. In normal years, the domestic soybean meal baseline is often 3650 yuan/ton. According to the current soybean meal market of 4950 yuan/ton, the price of soybean meal has soared, which means that the slaughter cost of pigs at the breeding end has increased by 65438+. According to the current average weight of fattening pigs 125 kg, due to the increase of soybean meal, the average cost of slaughtering pigs at the breeding end increased by 146.25 yuan!
However, judging from the data of pig price, the current domestic pig price is maintained at 23.5 yuan/kg, far exceeding the fattening cost price. The fattening cost of general pigs is around 16 ~ 17 yuan/kg. According to the current pig market performance, the average profit level of self-raising pigs is around 880 yuan, while the fattening profit of buying piglets is in 980 yuan/head! Of course, some netizens are surprised why the fattening profit of outsourced piglets is higher than that of autotrophic model!
Personally, it generally takes more than 6 months for the second fattening piglets to gain weight. However, when pigs are fattened in September, the fattening cycle appears in early March. However, due to the restriction of consumption and the soaring feed cost after the year, the mood at the breeding end is depressed, and the price of piglets is often lower than the cost price. Therefore, the second fattening piglets are fattened at low prices, which also improves the current average profit space. Therefore, the profit of outsourcing piglets is stronger than that of self-breeding.
Now, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, although the pig price has the basis of inertia decline, due to the impact of the elimination of sows, the slaughter of pigs in the third and fourth quarters is still tense. Although the theoretical slaughter scale is stronger than that in the second quarter, due to the cooler weather, the aquaculture market is tense and the demand side is gradually improving, especially 165438+. The price of live pigs may rise to the high point of the year, and the breeding end will still be in the high profit stage. However, after the National Day holiday, the consumer market will gradually fall back, and there is still downward pressure on pig prices, reminding the breeding end to lock in profits in time and follow the trend.
The soybean meal market has skyrocketed, and the cost of raising pigs has risen sharply. What is the average profit of fattening pig heads? What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!