In the second round, the two sides launched a warehouse transfer war from August 25 to 28, forcing speculative capital to pay a high price. On the 27th and 28th, speculative capital swarmed out in the stock spot market in an attempt to outperform the index. At the same time, the Hong Kong government clung to the stock market. After eight days of soul-stirring fighting, the contract price of the futures market in August was pushed up to 7990 points, and the settlement price was 785 1 point, which was 1200 points higher than before entering the market. On August 27th and 28th, the Hong Kong government accepted all the sales orders. As a result, the transaction amount reached HK$ 20 billion on the 27th and HK$ 79 billion on the 28th, setting a record for the highest transaction in Hong Kong.
On the 27th, on the eve of futures settlement in August, the SAR Government made a decisive gesture. Although the global financial news was extremely bad that day, the US Dow Jones stock index fell by 2 17 points, while European and Latin American stock markets fell by 3%-8%. The Hong Kong stock market is facing a severe test. According to market sources, the Hong Kong government injected about HK$ 20 billion a day, which made the Hang Seng Index rise by 88 points. Lay the foundation for the final decisive battle.
On the same day, the International Speculator Quantum Fund declared that the Hong Kong government would fail. The chief investment strategy of Soros Quantum Fund, an international speculator speculating in the Hong Kong market, admitted for the first time that Quantum Fund had been shorting the Hong Kong dollar and the Hang Seng Index when interviewed by American consumer news and business channel TV. He also said that due to the economic recession in Hong Kong, the "war" launched by the Hong Kong government against international investors in the foreign exchange market and the stock market will end in failure. Although Soros made big moves every time, he never publicly admitted that he was attacking a certain currency. It is unheard of and unprecedented for him to openly challenge a government in the name of a company or some people and threaten to overthrow a government.
The 28th is the futures settlement period, and speculators have a large number of futures orders that must be sold when they expire. If the stock market and foreign exchange market can stabilize at a high level or continue to break through, speculators will lose hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, otherwise tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars invested by the Hong Kong Government a few days ago will be thrown into the sea. The scene of the war between the two sides on that day was far more thrilling than the day before. All-day turnover reached a record of HK$ 79 billion. The Hong Kong government has made every effort to resist the unprecedented selling pressure from international speculators. At the close, the Hang Seng Index reported 7829 points, which was 1 17.55% higher than that in August before HKMA entered the market.
Donald Tsang, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary, immediately announced that the Hong Kong government had won the battle against international speculators and defended the Hong Kong stock market and the Hong Kong dollar. Market participants in Hong Kong estimate that the Hong Kong government has invested more than HK$ 654.38+000 billion in the two-week stock market support operation, and concentrated on buying the stocks of several major blue-chip companies in Hong Kong. It is estimated that the Hong Kong government currently holds 4% of the total market value of the Hong Kong stock market of US$ 26,543.8+000 billion, and has become a major shareholder of many blue-chip companies in Hong Kong.
The Hong Kong Futures Exchange introduced three new measures on the 29th. That is, from the opening of the market on August 3 1, a special deposit of 1 50% will be levied on customers who hold more than110,000 Hang Seng Index futures contracts, that is, the deposit for each Hang Seng Index futures contract will be adjusted from HK$ 80,000 to HK$120,000; Reduce the requirement of reporting large positions from 500 contracts to 250 contracts; At the time of declaration, the identity of a large number of positions must also be declared to the futures exchange.
On March 3 1 day, the stock market plunged by 7. 1% after the government terminated the support action, but the decline was less than market participants expected. The Hang Seng Index fell 554.70 points to close at 7,257.04 points, with a total turnover of only HK$ 6.6 billion, less than one tenth of last Friday's record high of HK$ 79 billion. However, some investors had predicted that the index might plummet 15%.
However, speculative capital is not willing to rest. They believe that the Hong Kong government has invested about HK$ 654.38+000 billion, which cannot be sustained for a long time. Therefore, they decided to change the time of shorting stock index futures contracts from August to September to fight a protracted war with the Hong Kong government. Since August 25th, speculative capital has been shorting September contracts in large quantities while liquidating August contracts. At the same time, the Hong Kong government pursued victory on the basis of closing the contract in August, making the price of the September contract 650 points higher than the settlement price of the August contract. In this way, speculative capital has to pay more than HK$ 30,000 per contract. The investment capital completely failed in the contract competition in August.
In the third round, the Hong Kong government continued to push up the price of stock index futures in September, forcing speculative funds to leave at a loss. On September 7, the financial management department of the Hong Kong Government promulgated new regulations on foreign exchange, securities trading and settlement to restrict speculators' speculation. On that day, the Hang Seng Index soared 588 points to close at 8076 points. At the same time, the appreciation of the yen and the stability of Southeast Asian financial markets have increased the capital and transaction costs of speculative capital, and speculative capital has to retreat. On September 8, the contract price in September rose to 8220 points, and the speculative funds transferred at the end of August had to close their positions and leave, and each contract lost another HK$ 40,000. On September 1 day, when the trading results of the spot market on August 28th were delivered, the Hong Kong government found that the trading shares of HK$ 146 billion could not be delivered due to loopholes in the settlement system, and speculators were able to escape.
In this consecutive 10 trading day intervention, the Hong Kong government intervened in the stock market, futures market and foreign exchange market at the same time, trying to form a three-dimensional defense network, which prevented international speculators from exerting their good means of "introducing from the east to the west" or "shaking the mountain". Specifically, since most speculators sell futures below 8,000 points, the Hong Kong Government hopes to push the Hang Seng Index to a level close to 8,000 points, raise the settlement price of the August futures index, and let the September futures index fall back, thus widening the gap between the two. Even if some speculators want to transfer warehouse receipts from August to September, they have to pay hundreds of points for admission, which greatly increases the cost. In terms of specific operations, the Hong Kong government and international speculators will focus on large blue-chip stocks, mainly including HSBC, Hongkong Telecom, Cheung Kong Industrial and other stocks. These stocks have large capital stock and high market value, which play an important role in the fluctuation of Hang Seng Index. Take HSBC as an example. This stock accounts for 30% of the Hang Seng Index, so it has become a competitive stock. By the end of August, 1999, calculate the stocks bought at that time. The book profit was about HK$ 71700 million, up by 60.8%, and the Hang Seng Index rebounded to 13500. International speculators suffered heavy losses, and the Hong Kong government's entry into the market was a great success. It is said that Soros lost $800 million alone. It is said that the China government used foreign exchange reserves to support the government. But the market is opened by the government itself, so it is a little entertaining to go in and play (criticized by Greenspan).
Soros made a profit of $2 billion in the 1997 Southeast Asian financial crisis (outside speculation).
The financial crisis in Southeast Asia has lasted for a long time, caused great harm and spread widely, far exceeding people's expectations. However, this crisis is no accident, it is the inevitable result of a series of factors. From the external reasons, it is the huge impact of international investment and the resulting withdrawal of foreign capital. According to statistics, during the crisis, foreign capital evacuated from Southeast Asian countries and regions reached as high as 40 billion US dollars. However, the most fundamental cause of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia lies in the economic contradictions within these countries and regions. Southeast Asian countries and regions are one of the fastest growing regions in the world economy in recent 20 years. With the rapid economic growth in recent years, these countries and regions have exposed more and more serious problems: ① With the increase of labor costs and the intensification of market competition, the advantages of export-oriented labor-intensive industries are declining. The economic growth mode and economic structure of the above-mentioned Southeast Asian countries and regions have not been adjusted in time and effectively, which leads to the decline of competitiveness, slow growth of foreign exports and high current account deficit. From 65438 to 0996, Thailand's current account deficit was $23 billion, and South Korea's was as high as $23.7 billion. ② The bank loan is too loose, the real estate investment is too large, the vacancy rate of commercial housing is rising, and the bank has bad debts. Bad assets such as bad debts are expanding day by day. The cash flow problem of financial institutions in Thailand is serious. Several large enterprises in South Korea declared bankruptcy due to insolvency, several financial institutions in Japan closed down, and the credit crisis in Indonesia intensified. These economic factors have affected the foreign exchange market and the stock market from various aspects. (3) Economic growth relies too much on foreign capital, and a large amount of foreign capital is introduced, which leads to the aggravation of foreign debt. Thailand's foreign debt was $20 billion in 1992, $86 billion before 1997 depreciation, and South Korea's foreign debt exceeded $15 billion. ④ The exchange rate system is rigid. In recent years, the US dollar has greatly appreciated against major international currencies, and the exchange rates of Southeast Asian countries and regions have not been adjusted, which has led to overvaluation, which has aggravated the rise in product prices and the sharp decline in exports. Therefore, it is imperative for these countries and regions to devalue their currencies. Currency devaluation leads to a further decline in the ability to repay foreign debts, and inflationary pressure intensifies, thus prompting the stock market to fall. ⑤ In the case of insufficient opening conditions and adaptability, open the financial market prematurely and join the international financial integration. When international hot money takes the opportunity to make waves, some Southeast Asian countries and regions are at a loss or lack of measures, and are completely in a passive position.