Kroll talks about futures trading strategy (stanley kroll, 1988)
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The following is the introduction and preface of this book:
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introduce
In John Train's excellent book The Master of Money, he wrote about the careers and professional methods of nine great investors. The names of several famous stars are familiar to us all-Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, T. Rowe Price, Larry Tisch and john templeton. In this "murder list" of investors, you will also find stanley kroll's name. Train described Stanley's profitable commodity business as an "impossible casino". "If so, kroll has some good luck at the gambling table, which is obviously not accidental or pure luck.
In the excellent book "Stock Market Tycoon", the author John? Cui En described the life stories and professional skills of nine investment masters. Some stars.-Warren? Buffett, Benjamin? Graham t? Lowe? Price, Larry? Dish and John? Templeton, they are all masters we are familiar with. Can you still find Stanley among these investors who can be called "murderers"? Crowe's name. Tran described Stanley's futures trading in the "Impossible Casino". If so, Crowe did have some wonderful performances at the gambling table, which is by no means accidental or pure luck.
In the1970s, Stanley changed his18,000 dollars into10 million dollars for three consecutive years. He performed the same wonderful technique for his partner. It's best to leave the rest of Starnley's stories to readers in Train. It can be said that they showed impressive courage and wisdom.
In 1970s, Stanley performed for three years. He increased his18,000 yuan to10,000 yuan, and he earned the same remuneration to his partners. For Stanley's other wonderful performances, readers can get a glimpse of Trin's works. Needless to say, these performances clearly show his courage and wisdom.
I am not a "commodity person" myself. I try to stick to the investment direction I know better, mainly stocks and debt instruments. For me, reading kroll's futures trading strategy is an education. What impressed me most about this book is that virtually all the main principles suggested by kroll are rooted in the consistent respect for discipline and common sense. In short, the best part of his advice shares the foundation of any good investment strategy-carefully observe the market, do a lot of research, and stay calm. As Stanley pointed out, the behavior of unlucky traders "is based on emotion rather than discipline, emotion rather than logic, and subjectivity rather than objectivity."
I am not a "futures person". I try to stick to financial instruments that I know better, mainly stocks and bonds. For me, reading Crowe's Futures Trading Strategy is a kind of learning. What impressed me most was that the most important principle in Crowe's proposal was almost completely rooted in the concern for discipline and common sense. In short, his best advice reveals the basis of all good investment strategies-observing the market attentively, studying deeply and being objective. Stanley pointed out that unfortunate traders "act according to emotions rather than discipline, feelings rather than logic, and subjectivity rather than objectivity."
Most of the important principles of Stanley's trading philosophy come from one core, which is the key to almost all investments-identifying the main trends in each market and trading in the direction of the leading trends. Most really savvy investors know that this is the key to making money in stocks and commodities. One of the reasons why Stanley is highly valued and doing so well is that his feet are rooted in concrete instead of mud.
Stanley's trading philosophy derives some important principles from a core idea, which is the key to almost all investment behaviors-identifying the main trends in the market and trading according to the trends. Most smart investors understand this core idea, and the key to profit in the futures market and the stock market is the same. One of the reasons for Stanley's good performance and attention is that he built towers with his feet on the ground instead of quicksand.
As I have met many times, when you meet Stanley, you will be immediately impressed by the commodity expert's claim that he knows little. This is one of the greatest advantages of most real experts. They don't overconfident or pretend to know everything. It is best to constantly assume that you don't know enough, and constantly investigate your assumptions and figures; Therefore, another important Kroll principle in the real world. As he said, "The need for a disciplined and objective approach to futures trading is a recurring theme in this book." Realistically speaking, this is the theme of this book.
If you meet Stanley, you will be as impressed as when I met him. He thinks you don't need to know much about trading futures. This is also one of the most outstanding advantages of most real experts. They won't be overconfident or pretend to know everything. It's best to admit your lack of knowledge and constantly study your own assumptions and figures. Another important principle of Stanley is to make real deals. As he said, "the discipline and objective methods needed by futures exchanges are the repeated themes in this book." In fact, this is the theme of this book.
Reading Kroll's article on futures trading strategy can do something for all investors. It won't make you an avid commodity trader overnight, but there are reliable suggestions for each of us. For beginners, this book tells in simple English how these markets work and what kind of investment "system" can work well. For experts, this book contains a lot of details about re-polishing already good steel. For ordinary investors, Stanley provides a sense of making good investors truly excellent-continuous efforts in research and the discipline to participate in major market trends and put them into practice. Rich people in any market can benefit from Stanley's advice.
Reading Crowe's Futures Trading Strategy can make all investors gain something. It won't make you an active futures trader overnight, but this book provides us with reliable advice. For beginners, this book tells you how the market works and what kind of investment "system" can bring profits in easy-to-understand language. For experts, many details in this book can make you icing on the cake. For ordinary investors, Stanley put forward the clue to the success of excellent investors-constantly studying hard, putting them into action and trading in a disciplined way. Any investor can benefit from Stanley's reasonable advice.
Douglas McIntyre
President & publisher
Financial world
New York city
27 May 1987
Douglas? Answer? McIntyre
President and issuer
Financial world magazine
New York city
127 May 987
foreword
The author's preface
The fund manager from Seattle is obviously very excited and has been trying to give me a hard time. It was a cold afternoon in the middle of 1985 1 1 and he had come to Washington to talk to me about his futures trading. When we were sitting in the paneled salon of my boat, office and residence, he painfully described how he was whipped in a series of loss-making transactions in the past year-although the market seemed to be in a reasonable (downward) trend. The problem is that he lets himself be influenced by news, TV reports and industry gossip. Although he sometimes enters the right side of the market (short position), he always panics (he calls it "defensive posture") and closes his position almost every time he goes against the trend. During this period, he somehow managed to keep the loss-making transactions, which greatly worsened his already depressed performance. His mental state during our meeting is consistent with his pessimistic record.
The visiting fund manager in Seattle was obviously upset and brought me a challenge. It was a cold afternoon in mid-June 1985 1 1. He came to Washington Harbor to discuss his futures trading with me. At that time, we were sitting in a small room that was both a residence and an office. He painfully described his experience of washing dishes in the soybean market in the past few years, which caused a series of losses-he could not see that this was a reasonable downward trend. His problem is that he lets himself be influenced by news, TV reports and gossip. Although he sometimes catches the market trend (down), he is always scared (he calls it "defense") and always closes his position when the market rebounds later. Somehow, he will cling to the position of loss, making the already poor performance worse. The mentality he showed when talking to me was consistent with his poor trading record.
After expressing his terrible thoughts, he asked rather irritably what my trading system had done with soybeans during this time. "Shorting from June 1 1" is my response. "June 1 1? What's the big deal? "He tried to complain, thinking that the time interval was only five months. "June 1 1 of 1984" I answered. Then there was a long silence. We all know that in the past 17 months, we have been short of soybeans, and the profit per contract exceeded10,000 dollars.
After venting his anger, he asked impatiently, how did my trading system perform in the soybean market these days? I replied, "Since June 1 1, the trading system has been ordering shorting." June 1 1? What's the big deal? "He muttered, thinking it was only five months. I replied "1984 June 1 1", and then there was a silence. We all know that if we have been shorting soybeans for the past 17 months, the profit of each contract will exceed 10000 yuan.
Unfortunately, this dialogue has been repeated countless times in the past 30 years, which leads me to an inevitable conclusion: the biggest enemy of each trader is neither the market nor other participants. It is he, himself ... who is helped and abetted by his false hopes and fears. He lacks the discipline to trade with trends, allows profits to run, and limits the loss of bad positions at the same time. He is bored and lazy. He obviously needs to "act" and he lacks confidence in his (usually correct) analysis and trading decisions.
Unfortunately, this conversation has been repeated over the past 30 years, and I have to conclude that the biggest enemy of any trader is not the market or other players, but himself. Their shortcomings are as follows: motivated by delusion, instigated by fear, unable to trade with the trend, unable to "stop loss and let profits run", boring, bad habits, impulsive trading, and lack of confidence in their (often correct) analysis and trading decisions.
Someone once said that the most reliable way to make a small sum of money in futures trading is to start with a large sum of money. Unfortunately, there is quite a lot of truth in this cynical logic. Obviously, there are far more losers than winners. So what continues to attract more and more investors to this game? For me, this is the knowledge confirmed by my personal experience of nearly 30 years. The futures market is obviously the best way for investors to have the opportunity to turn a small amount of initial shares into huge wealth. For trading companies or financial institutions, the futures market provides a means to avoid (hedge) financial risks. In fact, it is possible to gain from trading, otherwise it will definitely lose money. Countless family fortune and international business empires started from humble beginnings in shrewd and profitable commodity trading.
Someone once said that the most reliable way to get rich in futures trading is to have a large amount of wealth first. Unfortunately, this cynical logic implies universal truth. Obviously, there are many more losers than winners. In that case, why can this game attract a group of investors? Based on my experience in the past 30 years, I think the temptation of the futures market to investors is obvious, that is, I have the opportunity to win huge wealth with a small amount of gambling from the beginning. For traders and financial institutions, the futures market provides a way to hedge financial risks, and can also make profits in trading, and vice versa. Countless families' wealth and international business kingdoms began with shrewd and profitable futures trading.
However, for operators, if they want to break into the winner circle, they certainly need more than desire and wishful thinking. To succeed, investors must be pragmatic, objective, pragmatic and self-disciplined, and most importantly, be independent and full of confidence in their own analysis and market strategy. Jesse Livermore has a motto that has always guided me. He may be the most successful lonely market operator in the first half of this century: "There is only one side of the market, not a bull market or a bear market, but the right side."
Traders must not have desire and wishful thinking if they want to enter the ranks of winners. To succeed, investors must be pragmatic and objective, pragmatic and disciplined, and more importantly, be independent and have confidence in their unique analysis and market strategy. In countless transactions, a famous saying that has been guiding me comes from Jesse? Livermore, perhaps the most successful independent trader in the first 50 years of this century. He said: "The market has only one direction, not a cow or a bear, but the right direction."
As a practitioner, I have been seeking speculative profits all my career. But I still consider myself both a student and a practitioner, because in fact, you will never stop learning about markets, price trends and trading strategies. After all these years, I'm still concerned about making profits from the market-no, considerable profits. Considering the huge financial risks, emotional tension, loneliness, isolation and self-doubt, sometimes, pure fear is the almost constant companion of futures operators. You should not be satisfied with just making "profits". Profits must be your goal.
I have been pursuing speculative profits all my life. But I still believe that I am both a student and a professional trader. After all, in reality, you must persist in studying the market, price trends and trading strategies. After all these years, I still care about making profits from the market-no, profiteering. But when measuring huge financial risks, nervousness, loneliness, isolation, doubt and even inexplicable fear are, of course, almost all regular companions of futures traders. You shouldn't just be satisfied with "profit", profiteering must be your goal.
This is the whole content of this book. This is about the strategy and tactics of seeking rich profits from the market. It is about boarding an important trend at the beginning and steering it as close to its end as possible. It's about making more money in profitable transactions and losing less in unprofitable transactions. This is about accumulating your profit position and maximizing your profit while controlling your losses.
This is the content of this book. This book discusses the strategy and tactics of getting huge profits from the market. This book is about how to get on the bus and sit firmly until the market is over when the big market is about to start. The content of this book also includes teaching you how to earn more in profitable transactions and lose less in unprofitable transactions. This book will also tell you that in order to maximize profits and control losses, you should add positions in the form of pyramids.
I believe that in the real world, thousands of transactions made by hundreds of traders confirm this point. For an overall profitable operation, feasible fund management strategies and tactics are as important as first-class trading systems or technologies.
I believe that hundreds of traders have proved through thousands of transactions that effective fund management strategies and tactics are as important as first-class trading systems or technologies.
Moreover, although I prefer to have both, my priority is the best strategy and tactics. In my opinion, with first-class strategy and tactics and mediocre trading system, you will do better than the opposite. A large part of this book is about this premise, because I think first-class strategy and tactics are the key to any successful transaction.
In addition, for the above, although I ideally hope to have both, I will prefer first-class strategies and tactics, supplemented by ordinary trading systems. I think if we use first-class strategy and tactics, supplemented by ordinary trading system, the effect will be better than using first-class trading system, supplemented by ordinary strategy and tactics. Most of this book will explain this conclusion in detail, because I think first-class strategy and tactics are the key to all successful transactions.
Before you start writing this book, one last word. Readers can write to me and let me know that they want to discuss any aspect of this book further. I will try my best to respond.
Before reading this book, I should also remind you. Readers can write to me and let the publishing house forward it. I am willing to discuss any problems in the book with readers further. I will try my best to take the time to reply. (Note by Zhang Yi: Crowe died in 1999. )
Stanley Kroll
Stanley? Crowe