Corn price forecast in 2022
In 2022, the corn price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, but the fluctuation is intensified. In the long run, domestic grain stocks are at a low level, making downstream procurement more difficult. Diversified substitution and changes in supply and demand of substitutes themselves will affect the price trend of corn.
The supplement of substitutes ensures sufficient market supply, but the phased switching between corn and substitutes will aggravate market volatility. In the short term, the slow progress of grain harvest, the backward pressure of grain sales and the mismatch between supply and demand will lead to a double dip in corn prices.
In the medium term, the competition between corn and substitutes is becoming increasingly fierce, and the price difference between corn and substitutes is narrowing. Corn market share will recover, downstream acquisitions will increase, and prices will also rise.
In addition, the pressure of purchasing and selling in 202 1 corn market will move backward, and the corn production situation in China is expected to continue to improve in 2022. However, consumption will continue to increase, and wheat feed substitution and corn imports may decline. It is estimated that the domestic corn market will maintain a high range of volatility in 2022.
Why are we optimistic about the corn market in 2022?
The overall supply is affected.
Adjust and increase the soybean area, the corn area will be occupied and the overall supply will not increase. This year, the regulatory level of corn and soybeans has been deployed.
Heilongjiang province will continue to increase the soybean area by 6.5438+million mu, and to achieve this goal, it is bound to improve the soybean grain supplement to attract. However, the planting area of soybean and corn is competitive with each other. If there are more kinds of soybeans, the area of corn will decrease.
Therefore, there may not be retaliatory growth in corn area this year, and the overall supply will not be much higher. This will keep a tight balance between supply and demand of corn, which is very beneficial to the price of corn.
The pressure of imported impact substitutes becomes smaller.
202 1, the impact of import shock and wheat substitution was not small, but with the passage of time, the impact on domestic corn has weakened now.
International food prices have entered a high level, and imported corn is not necessarily cheap, and the cost performance has become lower. However, wheat has remained at a high level, and the advantage of replacing corn has been greatly reduced.
The influence of these two aspects on corn is getting lower and lower, which makes domestic corn more attractive and beneficial to corn food prices.
skill
After last year's "loss storm" (the price of corn soared and plummeted), traders were particularly cautious this year. Because of the high planting cost and the bullish news of all parties in the market, farmers began to take risks and refused to sell at high prices. On the basis of just stocking, it is an eternal strategic direction for downstream grain enterprises to reduce procurement costs.
Therefore, everyone involved in the corn market needs to do these two things:
1, keep abreast of market news and local market conditions, and grasp the price trend.
2. Sufficient customers and sources of goods, expand sales, and complete procurement at low prices.