Main factors affecting the steel market price in China;
1, the relationship between supply and demand in the steel market determines the price trend.
The relationship between supply and demand determines the price trend. Before 2008, the domestic demand for hot rolled coils was strong, and the market price was generally higher than that of rebar.
Price of construction steel such as wire rod. With the rapid growth of domestic hot-rolled coil output and the easing of the contradiction between supply and demand, the market price and its
The price difference of other varieties is gradually narrowing. Especially after the financial crisis in 2008, China's large-scale investment boosted the demand for rebar and wire rod.
The average price of rebar has always been higher than that of hot rolled coil, and the average price of rebar of 20 1 1 year is higher than that of hot rolled coil.
Higher than 72 yuan/ton. However, with the increasing overcapacity of rebar, the prices of rebar and hot coil are approaching, and 20 14 will be hot.
The average annual price of coiled steel has always been higher than that of rebar. However, the market price changes are difficult to ponder, and the demand is further shrinking.
With the economic depression, the prices of hot coils and rebar are constantly changing.
2. The high and low points of upstream and downstream cost constraint prices.
Cost determines the upper and lower limits of steel prices. The relationship between supply and demand determines the price trend, but the trend cannot be extended indefinitely. The market price is
The ups and downs are also constrained by costs. To put it simply, the cost of the downstream industry determines the upper limit of the steel price.
The cost can no longer bear the rise in steel prices, and when losses occur, the market price turns from rising to falling; iron and steel industry
The average production cost determines the lower limit of steel price. In the case of general losses in steel mills, market prices continued to fall.
Time is short.
3. The domestic market capital supply determines the steel price level.
22
Capital determines the price level of steel. When the market funds are relatively sufficient, it often corresponds to high prices, but when the funds
When you are nervous, it often corresponds to low prices. Take 20 1 1-20 12 as an example. Due to the bank's tightening of loans, steel traders' funds
There is a widespread shortage of funds or even the break of the capital chain of some steel traders, especially the credit crisis of steel trade in 20 12, which has caused industry funds.
Gold is tight, and the continuous downward trend of the price of 20 13-20 15 has a lot to do with this.
4. Analysis of the impact of domestic market competition on the market.
The influence of domestic market competition on market price can not be ignored. Steel mills with different structures choose different competitive strategies.
It determines that the market competition situation will be different.
Taking rebar and hot rolled coil as examples, from the national market, the rebar market basically belongs to the situation of complete competition, and there is no domestic market.
All steel mills are in a dominant position, only some regional leading steel mills, such as Hebei Iron and Steel in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.
Area; Shagang is in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces; The price adjustment of steel mills in Shaogang and Guanggang has a greater impact on their dominant position.
Market, other markets don't care much.
Hot rolled coil is different, because the sales radius of hot rolled coil is relatively large, the product concentration is relatively high, and steel traders
In addition to caring about the price policy of local leading steel mills, the adjustment of price policy of large steel mills has attracted much attention. Such as Japan Shagang
According to the sales area, East China is the leading steel mill in this area, but steel traders are also concerned about Baosteel, Angang, WISCO and Hehe.
The adjustment of price policy of Beigang, especially Baosteel, although its hot-rolled coil market circulation is not large, its price policy
This adjustment has obvious guiding effect on other steel mills and markets. However, with the intensification of overcapacity in China, steel enterprises are generally profitable.
Greatly reduce or even lose money, and the disadvantages of long-distance transportation gradually appear. For example, if the hot-rolled coils in North China and Northeast China
Sales in East China are obviously at a disadvantage in transportation costs. Take the Shanghai market as an example. Steel mills in North China transport cars or railways.
The transportation cost is generally between 120-200 yuan/ton, and the water transportation cost of steel mills in Northeast China is 120- 150 yuan/ton, while in East China.
The transportation cost of steel mills is only about 50 yuan/ton, and the sales volume of hot-rolled coil mills is also shrinking under the circumstance that steel mills are generally meager.
Sales radius, generally began to take the local-oriented, supplemented by COSCO region sales strategy, in order to obtain better returns.
5. Market expectation plays a role in fueling the price fluctuation.
Market expectation plays an amplification role, and price fluctuation can be boosted by changing supply and demand and market funds. such as
If the market expects the future price trend to rise, dealers will often order more actively, increase inventory, and market funds will also
Substantial growth; At the same time, the increase of market inventory plays a role in stimulating demand growth, which will stimulate the further rise of market prices;
or vice versa, Dallas to the auditorium
6. The influence of financial market and commodity market on steel price.
Since the listing of steel futures, iron ore futures, coke futures and coking coal futures, China's steel products have more financial attributes.
The steel industry chain is greatly influenced by the fluctuation of financial market and commodity market. There is a gap between the futures market and the spot market.
The pattern of contact competition has increased the uncertainties in the steel market. The futures market has a certain influence on the trend of the spot market.
Ring, spot market can more intuitively reflect the change of market situation, and the shock of forward market and spot market constitutes mutual restriction.
At the same time, it has become an important factor for steel mills to consider pricing. Judging from the price trend of rebar futures and spot market,
There is a strong correlation between futures prices and spot prices.