"Insufficient investment in the oil sector for a long time is also an important reason for high oil prices." Professor Soebroto, Chairman of the Indonesian Institute of Energy Economics Fund, said that insufficient oil investment led to insufficient production capacity. 1995 to 2000, the global investment in oil production declined, and the processing capacity of oil weakened, paving the way for the rise of oil prices today.
On March 26th, the National Development and Reform Commission again raised the price of gasoline and diesel per ton in 300 yuan and 200 yuan respectively. The sharp rise in oil prices in the international market and the upside-down prices of refined oil and crude oil are undoubtedly the main reasons for the rise in oil prices. The rise in crude oil prices often affects the nerves of all parties. This newspaper launched a set of manuscripts from today, analyzing the reasons for the rise of crude oil in depth through specific data, trying to judge the future trend of crude oil.
Crude oil (taking WTI crude oil, a West Texas Intermediate crude oil on NYMEX, as an example, the crude oil price refers to the recent contract price of WTI crude oil futures) started to rise from 1998 10 USD 10/ barrel, and has been rising for more than seven years, with the highest increase of 56 1%. The increase in crude oil this time exceeded people's expectations, and the reasons for pushing up oil prices are also complicated. The relationship between supply and demand is the fundamental factor that determines the price of any commodity. As long as demand increases or supply decreases, the price of a commodity will rise. Due to the particularity of crude oil, that is, the limited and non-renewable resources, the supply of crude oil is restricted by the existing oil fields and production equipment, which leads to the bottleneck of crude oil supply. Once the demand for crude oil increases or is expected to increase, the production capacity cannot increase accordingly, and the shortage of excess capacity will lead to an increase in oil prices. Even in the case of constant demand, emergencies that may lead to a decrease in supply will also unbalance the fragile relationship between supply and demand and lead to an increase in oil prices. This round of crude oil rise is precisely due to the facts and events that demand increases, supply bottlenecks or may decrease, which makes crude oil prices continue to rise. The specific reasons are as follows: First, the recovery and strong growth of the world economy have led to an increase in demand for crude oil and pushed up oil prices.
From 65438 to 0999, the world economy entered the recovery stage, especially the rapid growth of the American economy, and the demand for crude oil began to increase sharply, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. In 200 1 year, the world economy, trade and investment turned from strong growth in 2000 to sharp decline. According to the data released by the World Bank, the growth rate of world GDP in 200 1 year dropped from 3.8% in 2000 to 1.3%, the lowest since 10. & ltBR & gt However, since 2002, the global economy has entered a new cycle of prosperity, and the economic growth of major developed and developing countries has accelerated, especially in 2004, when the world economy experienced the strongest growth in 25 years. At the same time, the high investment rate under the global low interest rate policy has caused a substantial increase in energy consumption such as oil, and the increase in oil demand has exceeded expectations. In 2004, the global average daily oil demand was 82.4 million barrels, an increase of 3.4%. In 2005, the world economy was still growing at a high speed, and the oil demand increased by 1.3%. The rapid growth of oil demand has pushed up oil prices. The author found that there was a gap between supply and demand of world oil in 1999 and 2002, and these two years were the years when crude oil prices began to rise. In 200 1 year, the world economy fell sharply, and the price of crude oil also fell in this year. After 2003, the strong growth of the world economy led to a strong increase in demand for crude oil, which pushed the price of crude oil up rapidly. It can be seen that the recovery and growth of the world economy is the essential reason and the ultimate driving force for the rise of crude oil prices. Second, the western countries led by the United States have greatly increased their oil reserves, which has aggravated the contradiction between oil supply and demand and exacerbated the rise in oil prices. With the rapid growth of the world economy and the increasing demand for crude oil, the supply of crude oil is increasingly stretched. At the same time, the United States-led western countries have greatly increased their oil reserves, which undoubtedly increased the demand for crude oil, aggravated the contradiction between oil supply and demand, and aggravated the rise in oil prices. First, let's look at the strategic crude oil reserves of the United States. Table 2 shows the relationship between the crude oil price and the strategic crude oil reserve of the United States since the crude oil price of 198 10 WTI rose from 10.72 USD/barrel in February, which shows that the increasing strategic crude oil reserve of the United States is highly positively correlated with the crude oil price. In fact, in the past seven years, the correlation coefficient has reached 0.88, which shows that the increase of strategic crude oil reserves in the United States and other western countries is a very important factor leading to the increase of crude oil demand, which has promoted the rise of crude oil prices. Secondly, let's look at the impact of US crude oil commercial reserves on crude oil prices. Before June 2002 10, due to the pressure of a large number of commercial stocks, although the demand for crude oil increased and the price of crude oil continued to rise, it also rose normally. From June 2002 10 to the end of 2004, on the one hand, the economy recovered strongly, the strategic crude oil stocks in western countries increased, and the demand for crude oil increased, on the other hand, the commercial stocks decreased greatly, which led to the continuous rise of crude oil prices and hit a record high. In short, from the above analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the increase in demand for crude oil caused by the recovery and growth of the world economy, as well as the large amount of crude oil reserves in western countries, have intensified the demand for crude oil, and the fear of supply interruption has finally led to the continuous rise in crude oil prices. The growth of demand for crude oil by economic growth is the most essential reason for this round of crude oil rise, which plays a role of about 50% in the price increase of crude oil.