Moreover, looking at this trend of international oil prices, it is predicted that oil prices will still rise in 2022, although NDRC predicts that the tension between global crude oil production and demand will be eased in 2022, and the price will show a trend of high before and then low. However, due to the arrangement of China's oil price adjustment mechanism, generally speaking, it is easier to rise than to fall. Therefore, it is very likely that the whole gasoline price will rise more and fall less this year, and eventually it will rise more and fall less.
In fact, at present, the global economy is not particularly good, but at present, the demand of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the United States for the future price of crude oil is opposite. The United States hopes that the price of crude oil will stabilize or even fall, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also hopes that the price of crude oil will continue to rise. Therefore, the price of crude oil will fluctuate in 2022.
The price of crude oil has been rising since last year, and now it has exceeded the $80 mark. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries does have the power to price oil, and now they are plotting to cut production, try to maintain the high price of oil, or continue to push up the price of oil. In 2022, the global economy will definitely move forward, and the impact of the epidemic will gradually dissipate, especially the normalization of global supply chain and freight will definitely happen. Therefore, when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries wants to take advantage of the overall recovery of the international economy, it is also a big profit to make up for the losses in 2020.
But the United States does not think so. The current economic development of the United States is quite satisfactory, so their main goal now is to control domestic inflation. Especially on the eve of the mid-term election, if inflation can be controlled, it is possible to win the support of voters in the election. So this is also the reason why the Federal Reserve frequently sends out interest rate hike signals, especially in June, which may start before March. Raising interest rates will shrink the liquidity of the US dollar and effectively control domestic inflation.
We must know that the global crude oil prices are all priced in US dollars and also settled in US dollars. If the Fed raises interest rates, the price of crude oil will naturally fall, and the global economic growth may also slow down, which will also lead to a decrease in the demand for oil. Therefore, the United States and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are now actually contradictory. They are still playing the game, so the price of crude oil fluctuates.
On October 4th, 65438/KLOC-0, "OPEC+"held a monthly meeting, and agreed to maintain an increase of 400,000 barrels per day. It sounds like a lot of increase, but for the economic development forecast in 2022, the global oil demand will increase by 4.2 million barrels per day compared with 202 1, which means that the increase of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will not reach110. As a result, the United States began to release crude oil reserves, while domestic shale oil companies began to produce. At the same time, it also threatened to relax economic sanctions against Iran and resume Iran's crude oil exports to suppress the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
In 2022, the price of gasoline and diesel will be relatively high, which can also promote the faster promotion of new energy vehicles to some extent. It is estimated that many people will give priority to new energy vehicles when buying cars in the future.