First, the soybean stocks in the United States and Brazil have been greatly reduced, and soybean prices have risen, pushing up the price of soybean meal. This is very critical. Even if soybean meal expands, the price of soybean meal will continue to rise. The key is the upward shift of the cost-side price center. In addition, the increase in import cost is not only reflected in the cost of soybeans, but also in the transportation cost.
Second, the recovery and growth of aquaculture capacity has increased the demand for soybean meal for feed. In 2020, the national feed output will increase by about 10%. The domestic demand for soybeans has increased steadily. In 2020, domestic soybean imports exceeded 654.38 billion tons, a record high.
Third, with the upward trend of oil price, the profit of soybean oil crushing is high, and the soybean crushing in the United States has greatly increased, which consumes soybean stocks and raises soybean prices.
Fourth, the planting side first encounters epidemic situation (such as the price is lower than the cost in the planting season), and then climate factors (such as the drought in South America and the impact of La Nina on Argentina). ), and the yield growth is less than expected.
Fifth, it is the unstable factor of the main producing countries. For example, the strike in Argentina affected exports. If the labor wage is raised, the related costs will also rise. Generally speaking, the import cost is rising.
Sixth, from the price comparison of varieties, the increase in corn prices also drives soybean meal. The joint substitution of soybean meal and corn in feed makes the price have strong linkage. Since the second half of the year, the prices of corn, soybeans and soybean meal have continued to rise sharply. Since the outbreak, many countries around the world have banned food exports, which has aggravated concerns about food supply and circulation. In addition, after the epidemic, demand continued to recover, and the prices of varieties in the overall commodity market rebounded sharply, and some even hit record highs.
Seven, the epidemic situation is repeated, the circulation is not smooth, and the downstream of aquaculture is worried that the supply of soybean meal will be cut off and the demand for stocking will increase.
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Main characteristics of futures
1. The terms and conditions of a futures contract, such as commodity variety, trading unit, contract month, margin, quantity, quality, grade, delivery time and delivery place, are established and standardized, and the only variable is price. The standards of futures contracts are usually designed by futures exchanges and listed by national regulatory agencies.
2. The futures contract is concluded under the organization of the futures exchange and has legal effect, and the price is generated by public bidding in the trading hall of the exchange; Most foreign countries adopt public bidding, while our country adopts computer trading.