As of the close of July 18, the fuel oil futures of the previous period rose by 10%, Shandong fuel oil rose by 8%, crude oil and asphalt rose by 7%, and PTA, styrene, urea and staple fiber rose by 5%.
It is worth noting that, driven by high oil prices, oil companies such as PetroChina and CNOOC have successively disclosed semi-annual pre-increase announcements. Among them, PetroChina is expected to make a big profit of 79.5-85 billion yuan, with a profit reaching an eight-year high.
Driven by excellent performance and expectations of rising oil and gas prices, the share prices of domestic oil companies also rose sharply on Monday. As of the close of July 18, CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinopec rose more than 5%.
The latest forecasts of major institutions show that despite the weak economic growth, oil demand is growing strongly, and it is expected that oil prices will remain high in the medium and long term. Bank of America Securities said it reiterated PetroChina's buy rating with a target price of HK$ 5.8.
The increase of crude oil output was less than expected, and the futures of chemical industry chain rose across the board.
Biden's trip to the Middle East last week attracted global attention, and the market expected Saudi Arabia to increase crude oil production to ease the domestic inflation level in the United States.
However, judging from the talks between the two sides and their statements after the meeting, the results are quite limited. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal 16 said at a press conference that the United States and Saudi Arabia did not discuss this topic.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed said that Saudi Arabia has the ability to increase the domestic crude oil production capacity to 65.438+0.3 million barrels per day, but there is no additional capacity to continue to increase crude oil production for the time being. In addition, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal said that the specific oil production issue was not discussed at the * * * summit, which is not the real theme of the summit. Obviously, OPEC+has recently responded to the market situation.
As Biden's trip to the Middle East failed to get a response to increase production, which was less than market expectations, domestic chemical industry chain futures rose across the board on Monday.
At the close of July 18, the fuel oil futures of the previous period rose by 10%, Shandong fuel oil rose by 8%, crude oil and asphalt rose by 7%, and PTA, styrene, urea and staple fiber rose by 5%. At the same time, WTI oil price rose more than 2% on Monday, rising to around 100 USD.
The official website of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced at 65438 on July 8 that the reference price of OPEC crude oil rose to 104.39 USD/barrel on Friday, compared with 102.66 USD/barrel on the previous trading day.
Yang Hong, a senior researcher at Ping An Futures, told China that the sharp rebound of 18 crude oil was affected by many factors:
First, at present, the market's probability of the Fed raising interest rates 100 basis points in July has dropped below 30%, so the US dollar index has continuously fallen, which has boosted crude oil prices.
Second, domestic stable economic policies are still expected to increase. Economic data was released in the first half of the year, and GDP increased by 2.5% year-on-year. After the second quarter, the domestic economy is expected to continue to rebound from the low point, and the growth target of 5.5% is challenging, but it has not given up. China's economic recovery is expected to benefit from oil prices.
Third, oil prices that are already in the background of low inventory are easy to rebound.
As of the week of July 8, the total inventory of the United States, including SPR inventory, was 9120,000 barrels, and the refined oil inventory was also at a low level. As of July 8, the US gasoline inventory was 225 million barrels, and the low and declining inventory level strongly supported the price.
It is worth noting that the existing production agreement will expire in September, and the meeting of oil-producing countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will be held on August 3, so it has attracted much attention from the market. Yang Hong also said that the expectation of increasing crude oil production has not been realized, and the market is concerned about the results of the OPEC+meeting on August 3.
BadenMoore, head of commodity research at NationalAustralianBank, said: Although Zhi Nuo did not get an immediate increase in production, the US expects supply to increase gradually.
Generally speaking, low inventory and fragile supply give the oil price the impetus to rebound, but excessive oil price rebound will push up the inflation expectation in the United States, which will lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sharply to curb inflation expectation, which will make oil prices face greater pressure when rebounding. Under the expectation of economic recession, it is difficult for demand to provide more power for the rebound of oil prices, and it is expected that oil prices will mainly consolidate. Yang Hong said.
The oil company's performance in the first half of the year was outstanding, and its share price rose sharply.
Due to high international oil prices, production growth and cost control, major oil companies made profits in the first half of the year, and PetroChina and CNOOC successively disclosed the announcement of pre-increase in semi-annual results.
On the evening of June 15, China Petroleum announced a pre-increase in the first half of 2022. It is estimated that the net profit returned to the mother in the first half of 2022 will be 79.5-85 billion yuan, up 50%-60% year-on-year; The day before, CNOOC also announced the pre-increase announcement for the first half of the year, and it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the mother will be 70.5-72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of112-18%.
Driven by excellent performance and expectations of rising oil and gas prices, the share prices of domestic oil companies ushered in a sharp rise on Monday.
On July 18, the share prices of CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinopec rose across the board. Among them, CNOOC Hong Kong stocks rose 5.69% to HK$ 9.85 per share; Cosl stocks rose 5. 16% to HK$ 7.34 per share; Sinopec Hong Kong shares rose 4.68% to HK$ 3.58 per share; Hong Kong stocks of PetroChina rose 4.34% to 3.6 1 HK$ per share.
Take PetroChina as an example. In the first half of the year, China's oil and gas business progressed steadily, with the sales volume and price of major oil and gas products rising, overlapping to reduce costs and increase efficiency, effectively controlling operating costs, and its performance increased substantially year-on-year, reaching an eight-year high.
Everbright Securities pointed out that due to the expected intensification of the economic recession, the tight supply of crude oil has eased, and there has been a significant correction in oil prices recently. However, considering that the fundamentals of supply and demand are still tight in 2022, the long-term supply and demand of crude oil are still tight, and the judgment of oil price boom in 22 years and medium and long term will be maintained.
The latest forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the us energy information administration (EIA) and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also show that global oil demand will grow strongly again in 2023, despite the growing market concerns about rising inflation and weak economic growth. Insufficient investment in new capacity means that OPEC oil producers will need to increase production to meet demand.
In terms of crude oil demand, the recovery trend of global crude oil demand will remain unchanged in 2022. IEA predicts that the global demand for crude oil will increase by 6.5438+0.7 million barrels per day in 2022, and the growth rate of global demand for crude oil will further increase to 2.65438+0.7 million barrels per day in 2023.
Everbright Securities believes that in the long run, oil, as the most common carbon source in organic chemicals, has excellent performance and it is difficult to find a suitable substitute at present. The irreplaceable chemical demand of petroleum and the fuel demand supported by a large number of existing fuel vehicles will make the demand for crude oil rigid before 2030.
On Monday, Bank of America Securities said it reiterated PetroChina's buy rating with a target price of HK$ 5.8. Oil demand has not fully recovered, and stocks are rapidly declining. Even if the world falls into recession, the prices of natural gas and coal will remain high, and the average price of Brent crude oil per barrel may exceed $75 in 2023. Bank of America Securities predicts that PetroChina will better manage its natural gas import losses through different ways, including better cost transfer, increasing the exposure of cheap Russian pipeline natural gas and limited spot liquefied natural gas, and government tax rebate policy.