In the case of bleak steel stocks, the spot price of iron ore has also been falling all the way, even falling below the long-term association price. This made the three major mines somewhat uncontrollable, especially Rio Tinto, which was caught in the "spy door", did not hesitate to put down its posture and show good to China. With the approach of 5438+00 in June, the iron ore negotiation of 20 10 will be started again according to the traditional practice. Although Rio Tinto's attitude has changed, which may bring a new turn in the negotiations, it is difficult to change the strong position of the three major mines in a short time. Regarding the new negotiation results, UBS Group AG Group AG said that the increase of steel production capacity in China will make the iron ore market in short supply next year, and predicted that the global long-term iron ore price may increase by 20% in 20 10. The spot price of iron ore fell below the price of Xie Chang steel, and it has been going on for four weeks. According to the monitoring data of Lange steel network, the current steel price has dropped by more than 1,000 yuan, and major steel mills have lowered their ex-factory prices. After Shagang and Hebei Iron and Steel lowered their ex-factory prices last week, Baosteel recently released the ex-factory price policy for carbon steel products in 10. In 10, the order prices for hot rolling, hot rolling pickling and color coating were lowered by 200-500 yuan/ton, which was the first reduction since Baosteel continuously raised its ex-factory price in the second quarter. Subsequently, WISCO also lowered the ex-factory price of 10. Corresponding to the price adjustment, the unsalable situation of steel products is becoming more and more serious. According to the market monitoring of Lange Steel Information Research Center, as of September 4, the inventory of construction steel in key cities nationwide was 510.3 million tons, an increase of10.5 million tons from the previous week and an increase of10.9% from the previous month. The decline in steel prices and the increase in inventories directly affect the price of iron ore. On September 7th, the CIF price of Indian spot iron ore with 63.5% grade was 8 1-83 USD/ton, which was nearly 30 USD/ton lower than that in August. Based on the long-term agreement price reached between Japan, South Korea and Brazil's Vale, according to the sea freight from Tubalao, Brazil to Qingdao on September 9, the FOB price of 63.5% grade iron ore in Vale South System is USD 54, and the price to Qingdao Port is USD 83. 1 1. The spot price has fallen below the long-term agreement price. At present, China steel enterprises settle accounts according to the initial price reached between Rio Tinto and Nippon Steel. According to the usual practice, after the negotiation results come out, more retreat and less compensation. And if the iron ore negotiation results are delayed, the steel mill has settled according to the 33% decline, which is actually equivalent to the default starting price. Rio Tinto is in deep debt crisis. However, the recent rapid decline in steel prices and iron ore prices has also caused subtle changes in the psychology of both sides of the negotiations. On September 4th, Sam Walsh, CEO of Rio Tinto's iron ore business, expressed the hope that the suspended negotiations with China could be resumed as soon as possible. Sam Walsh's remarks were regarded as a positive signal from Rio Tinto. Behind Rio Tinto's turn, a serious debt crisis is emerging. Rio Tinto's interim report in 2009 showed that its net profit for the first half of the year was $2.454 billion, down 65% from last year's $6.955438 billion. While the sales performance has dropped sharply, Rio Tinto also faces huge debts to repay. It is reported that on June 30 this year, Rio Tinto's net debt was $3,965.438+billion, mainly due to the debt owed by Rio Tinto in 2007 when it acquired Alcan Canada for $3,865.438+billion. Last year's annual report, Rio Tinto promised to reduce its liabilities by 654.38 billion yuan this year, of which 7.7 billion dollars will expire in June this year. On July 3, Rio Tinto gave up its cooperation with Chinalco and temporarily settled the debt that needed to be repaid through equity financing of $654.38+04.8 billion, but its debt was still as high as $24.3 billion after financing. At present, the prices of steel and iron ore have declined, and it will take time for international iron ore demand to recover. How to repay this $24.3 billion has become a headache for Rio Tinto, and some debts will expire next year. Wang Guoqing, an analyst at Lange Steel Network Information Center, said that the most effective way for Rio Tinto to repay its debts is to use profits. However, in the first half of this year, Rio Tinto's profit was only $2.454 billion. If sales remain sluggish in the second half of this year, Rio Tinto will fall into the dilemma of "looking for money everywhere". At the time of domestic troubles and foreign invasion, there have been many rumors recently that Chinalco will buy raw materials such as alumina from Rio Tinto, and Rio Tinto may have to place the hope of solving the problem in China, which will bring a turning point to the 20 10 iron ore negotiations that will start at the end of10. The advantage of the mine is hard to be broken at 10. With the approach of 10, the iron ore negotiations in 2009 will soon become a thing of the past, and the two sides are already preparing for a new round of negotiations. Since the cooperation between Chinalco and Rio Tinto failed, China also began to change its mind and invest in new Australian mines. According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, there are 10 projects planned and approved by China this year, with an investment amount of1600 million US dollars. And the mine is also making various efforts to get rid of the predicament. On August 28th, Brazil's Vale plans to build a steel mill with an annual output of 5 million tons of steel plates to meet domestic demand and digest its own iron ore. BHP Billiton is also expanding stable iron ore sales channels. Rio Tinto, heavily in debt, has not given up the idea of cooperating with BHP Billiton. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are negotiating to start a $65.438 billion diamond mine development project in Canada, and the two sides intend to deepen cooperation in other businesses besides iron ore cooperation. This will undoubtedly strengthen the synergy between the two extended futures. After breaking many conventions in this year's negotiations, next year's negotiations will be full of more variables. Xu, a professor at the School of Metallurgy, University of Science and Technology Beijing, said: "Now that the convention has been broken, it is hard to say whether the negotiations will proceed as scheduled." Although China pays more and more attention to the cooperation with new mines, the supply of iron ore formed in a short time is still very small, and China still needs to sit together and negotiate with the three major mines. The agreement reached between China Steel Association and FMG this year has established a new model for China's future negotiations, that is, mines can only be sold at one price in China and settled according to China's fiscal year. As soon as this plan was introduced, it was rejected by the three major mines. Therefore, the 20 10 iron ore negotiation will also face great challenges in terms of mode. Wang Guoqing believes that at present, 80% of the iron ore trade is provided by the three major mines, and 70% of the shipping is also controlled by the three major mines. However, China joined international trade too late and has always lacked pricing power. It will take a long time to support emerging minerals to expand their production capacity. It is difficult to quickly change the strong position of the three major mines in a short period of time. Regarding the negotiation results, Wang Guoqing said that the drop in iron ore prices this year is a rare opportunity. With the recovery of global economy and rising demand, the price of iron ore will rise on the basis of this year's "initial price". UBS Group AG)9 Group AG released a report on September 1 day, saying that the increase of steel production capacity in China will lead to tight supply in the iron ore market next year, and predicted that the global long-term iron ore price may increase by 20% in 20 10.