It is indispensable and irreplaceable, and the limited reserves and output of crude oil make the price of crude oil very sensitive to the factors affecting supply and demand, and it fluctuates greatly.
Second, the factors affecting the rise and fall of crude oil: the relationship between supply and demand
The imbalance of crude oil supply and demand structure makes the relationship between crude oil supply and demand tend to be tense. Every link from reserve, production, transportation, refining to sales is very important, and the change of factors in any link will affect the fluctuation of crude oil price.
Third, the factors affecting the rise and fall of crude oil: geopolitics
Uncertainties such as wars, terrorist attacks, oil workers' strikes and other emergencies have seriously affected or even influenced the trend of oil prices.
On March 28th, 2003, the price of oil futures in new york Stock Exchange reached $39.99/barrel, up 60% from $25/barrel at the end of last year.
In June 2008, Israel threatened to attack Iran, and the spot contract price of crude oil futures reached a record high 139.438+02 USD/barrel. The increase of 10.75 USD/barrel and the 8% increase of contract futures price on that day are the biggest one-day increase in the history of crude oil futures market.
4. Factors affecting the rise and fall of crude oil: the increase and decrease of crude oil inventory.
During the economic recession, the decline of crude oil inventory has little supporting effect on oil prices, while the increase of crude oil inventory has a greater destructive effect on oil prices; In the stage of economic recovery and prosperity, the increase of crude oil inventory has a stabilizing effect on oil prices, but the decline of crude oil inventory will greatly support the rise of oil prices.
5. Factors affecting the rise and fall of crude oil: the output of oil-producing countries.
When the economy declines, the demand for crude oil decreases and the price falls, it is often difficult for oil-producing countries to reduce production, and increasing production will accelerate the price drop; However, when the economy recovers, the demand for crude oil increases and the oil price rises, increasing production has limited effect on stabilizing the oil price rise, while reducing production will obviously aggravate the price rise.
6. Factors affecting the rise and fall of crude oil: speculative funds.
Speculation and market expectation in the crude oil market often increase the fluctuation of crude oil prices. The influence of speculative factors in the international crude oil market on crude oil prices is 10%-20%.
7. Factors affecting the rise and fall of crude oil: USD.
The appreciation and depreciation of the dollar exchange rate will directly affect the fluctuation of oil prices. The rebound of the US dollar index means that in addition to the appreciation of the US dollar, the cost of investors investing in crude oil will also increase, which is bad for oil prices and vice versa.