4.3. 1. 1 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its production and price policies
In order to fight back against major international oil companies, ensure oil revenue and coordinate the oil policies of oil exporting countries, 1960 In September, at the invitation of the Iraqi government, representatives of Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, Iran and Iraq gathered in Baghdad, and the meeting decided to establish a permanent organization-the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. At first, it only had the above five member countries, and later it joined six. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has 1 1 member countries, namely Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nicaragua, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.
At present, the proven reserves of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries account for 78% of the world's oil reserves, but its output only accounts for about 40% of the world's total output. Figure 4. 12 shows the change of the share of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in the world oil production during the period of 1960 ~ 2002. The market share of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries peaked at 1973, accounting for 55% of the world's oil production. Since then, due to the high oil price caused by the oil crisis, the world economy has been depressed, the oil consumption has dropped sharply, the development and utilization of alternative energy sources and energy-saving technologies have continuously improved the energy utilization efficiency. Many large oil fields such as Mexico, Britain's North Sea oil field and northern Alaska have been discovered one after another. Other non-OPEC countries have increased their production due to high oil prices, and the market share of OPEC has been declining. When it reached its lowest level in the mid-1980s, it was only about 30%. However, the low oil price after 1986 stimulated the growth of world oil consumption and inhibited the investment in high-cost oil fields and oil exploitation. In addition, the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s increased the demand for OPEC oil, which was mainly met by OPEC, and its oil market share began to rise slowly. In recent years, due to the continuous increase in production in non-OPEC countries, especially Russia, the market share of OPEC has declined slightly, but it has basically stabilized at around 40%. Although the current production share is only about 40%, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries still has a mobile production capacity of about 6 million barrels per day (or 300 million /t year), which is beyond the reach of other oil-producing countries. There are more than 50 non-OPEC oil-producing countries in the world, which produce 60% of the world's annual output with proven reserves of less than 1/4. Therefore, these non-OPEC oil-producing countries, such as Russia, are basically producing at full capacity.
With its huge excess capacity, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can increase production when the international crude oil price exceeds the market capacity and adversely affects the economic production of major oil importing countries, thus preventing the oil price from rising and further reducing the oil price; On the contrary, when the oil price is too low, it will have a negative impact on the income and economic production of oil exporting countries, reduce production, alleviate the situation of oversupply, prevent the oil price from continuing to fall, and promote the oil price to rise further. According to the market situation, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regulates the supply of the world oil market through excess capacity, and strives to stabilize the world oil price in a reasonable range. Therefore, at this stage, although there are many uncertain factors that limit and restrict the influence and control ability of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on the international oil price, its influence on the international oil market cannot be ignored, and sometimes it can even manipulate the fluctuation of the international oil price. Although the total oil output of non-O PEC countries accounts for 60% of the world's total oil output, all countries produce according to their own behaviors, and there is no unified organization and action. Therefore, the output of a single non-OPEC country usually cannot have a substantial impact on the international crude oil price.
Figure 4. 12 OPEC oil production share
(according to http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec11_10.pdf).
In addition, because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has a large number of proven oil reserves, many long-term predictions show that the world will rely more and more on the resources of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in the future, and the oil share of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase in the long run. Therefore, the influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on international oil prices will not decrease, but may increase further. Therefore, if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can coordinate the interests of all countries and act in concert to control oil prices within a certain range, it should be a relatively sure thing.
The crude oil price of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries refers to the average price of seven kinds of crude oil, including Arabian light oil, Sahara mixed oil, Indonesian Mlnas, Bonnie light oil, Dubai light oil, Tijuana light oil and Isthmus light oil. After September 1999, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries began to study the price band mechanism and formally implemented it in March 2000. The so-called price band mechanism is to set a price range in advance. If the actual price exceeds or falls below this range within a certain period of time, the price will return to the set range by adjusting the output. The attempt of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is similar to the intervention of the monetary authorities in the foreign exchange market to avoid drastic changes in foreign exchange.
From June 5438+ 10, 2000, 0PEC started the oil production adjustment mechanism to keep the oil price in the price mechanism zone set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries before September 5438+0, 2006. However, in September 20001year, the "9. 1 1" incident broke out in the United States. Although the oil price once rose, the international oil market was worried about the sharp decline of the American economy, which led to a sharp drop in oil demand. In addition, the oil-producing countries suspended the use of oil production adjustment mechanism to maintain international stability and did not cut production when demand decreased, making the oil price at 200 1 6544. By the end of 200 1 and 1 February, due to the increase in winter demand and the decision of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers to cut production, oil prices returned to the price mechanism zone. At the end of 2002 and the beginning of 2003, influenced by the US-Iraq war and international speculative forces, the international oil price once soared to $33/barrel. However, after the war began, oil prices fell rapidly, and in the next six months or so, oil prices were basically controlled in the price mechanism zone of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
After the end of the Iraq war, the security situation in Iraq has become increasingly tense, and the problem of reconstruction is full of difficulties. People are worried that the turmoil in the Middle East will further intensify, leading to tight oil supply. Coupled with the recovery of the world economy and O PEC's two production cuts in September 2003 and April 2004, under the joint action of these factors, oil prices fluctuated upward in 2003 and even rose all the way after April 2004, completely divorced from the price mechanism formulated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Figure 4. 13 shows the trend of OPEC oil price package from 2006.5438+0 to 2004. 1 It should be said that the production policy of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is effective in a stable period.
Figure 4. 13 OPEC package price trend
(According to EIA/ OPEC News Agency)
4.3. 1.2 OPEC crude oil output and international crude oil price
As one of the most important supply factors, crude oil output plays an important role in the formation of international crude oil prices. World crude oil production consists of OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil production. The fluctuation of crude oil output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries causes the fluctuation of world crude oil output, which in turn affects the international crude oil price. Figures 4. 14 and 4. 15 respectively reflect the changing trend and fluctuation of crude oil output of OPEC, non-OPEC and the world during 1960 ~ 2002.
Fig. 4. 14 crude oil production fluctuation
Figure 4. 15 Oil production fluctuation
It can be seen that in the more than 30 years since 1960, except for a slight decline due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, the crude oil output of non-OPEC countries has basically increased steadily. The fluctuation of world crude oil output mainly comes from the fluctuation of OPEC crude oil output (tables 4.2 and 4.3). The crude oil output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries rose steadily before the first oil crisis, with little fluctuation, but fluctuated greatly in the following 10 years. Among them, there were two major oil crises in the 1970s, and the crude oil output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries changed greatly. In the early 1980 s, the output of O PEC crude oil dropped sharply, which led to similar fluctuations in the world crude oil output.
Table 4.2 Statistics of crude oil production fluctuation of OPEC, non-OPEC and the world
Table 4.3 Correlation coefficient between OPEC, non-OPEC and world crude oil production fluctuation
It can be clearly seen from Figure 4. 16 that from the early 1970s to the mid-1980s and late 1990s, the drastic fluctuation of world crude oil output was almost consistent with that of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Statistical analysis shows that the correlation coefficient between OPEC crude oil production change and world crude oil production change is as high as 0.94 1, which is significant at the level of 1%. The correlation coefficient between non-OPEC production change and world crude oil production change is only 0.278, which is not significant at the level of 5%. Because OPEC and non-OPEC jointly provide the world's required crude oil output, there is a trade-off relationship between them, and the negative correlation coefficient (-0.062) between them also illustrates this point. However, because the world's required crude oil output is constantly changing with the relationship between supply and demand, economic development and other conditions, the reverse relationship between the two is very weak and not significant. Therefore, the fluctuation of OPEC crude oil production is one of the most important and direct reasons for the fluctuation of world crude oil production, and it is also the reason for the change of international crude oil price.
Because the change of OPEC crude oil output is the main reason for the fluctuation of world crude oil output, the change of OPEC crude oil output has played a certain role in the formation and fluctuation of international crude oil prices. Figure 4. 16 reflects the changing trend of OPEC crude oil output and world crude oil price during 1970 ~ 1998.
Figure 4. 16 OPEC crude oil output and international crude oil price
While the output of crude oil in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fluctuated, the international crude oil price also rose from $ 3-4 per barrel at the beginning of 1970 to more than $30 per barrel. Before the first oil crisis, the output of crude oil rose steadily and the price of crude oil remained basically stable. The Middle East oil embargo has disrupted the stable trend of oil production, triggered panic and led to a rapid rise in crude oil prices. However, after OPEC further cut production, the price of crude oil still fell. Obviously, this is not the cause of supply, but the high crude oil price in the previous stage led to the depression of the world economy, which led to the reduction of demand. Therefore, the change trend of O PEC crude oil output and international crude oil price has not been completely reversed, which can simply show that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can influence the trend of international crude oil price to some extent by adjusting its output, but it cannot fully reflect or influence the trend of international crude oil price.
4.3. 1.3 world economic activity level and world oil demand
Generally speaking, when the world economy grows steadily, due to the expansion of production in all walks of life, the amount of energy required also increases accordingly. With the expansion of production scale, enterprises need more workers or longer working hours or labor intensity, thus increasing residents' income, which may lead to an increase in residents' use of domestic energy; On the contrary, when the world economy is depressed, the production scale of various industries is relatively reduced, resulting in a decrease in the demand for oil as a raw material. With the reduction of production scale in various departments, or the reduction of labor employment, the shortening of working hours or the reduction of work intensity, the income of residents also decreases, which further reduces the use of living energy by residents. Therefore, there is a positive correlation between energy consumption and the level of world economic activity (gross domestic product). Some literatures also confirmed the existence of this relationship from an empirical point of view.
4.3. 1.4 OECD oil reserves and international crude oil prices
Oil reserves play an important role in transmitting various market fluctuations to oil prices. Petroleum strategic reserve and commercial inventory are in the position of regulating total supply and demand in the international oil market. The change of its quantity is directly related to the change of the import and export volume of the world oil market (dumping inventory can reduce the import volume, and buying inventory can increase the import volume). The role of inventory is equivalent to a "reservoir" that regulates the import and export volume. The change of inventory (logistics) (that is, the flow size and direction of inventory oil in the market) is mainly restricted and regulated by the information flow such as the difference between supply and demand, the target quantity of inventory, and business decision. It is a cumulative quantity, which is closely related to the oil price trend (Figure 4. 17).
Figure 4. 17 OECD oil reserves and international crude oil prices
(1) During the 1980s and 1990s, oil prices were basically in a relatively stable convergence stage after inventory adjustment.
From the mid-1980s to the end of 1990s, during the 10 years, except for a short period in the Gulf crisis after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the price of crude oil per barrel exceeded $30, and the overall oil price fluctuated within a small range of 15 ~ 25. In view of the fact that oil is a commodity with extremely low short-term demand and price elasticity, in the nearly 20 years from the early 1980s to the late 1990s, the international oil market was in a situation that neither the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries nor the western oil companies could completely control, and the oil price should have considerable fluctuation space. One of the reasons why such large fluctuations do not occur frequently can be said to be related to the existence and rational utilization of huge oil reserves in major oil importing countries.
(2) The fluctuation of oil price since 1997 is related to the great change of reserves in the same period.
From 1997, affected by the Asian financial turmoil and other factors, the world oil demand dropped sharply, and the oil reserves of OECD countries began to rise continuously, completely changing the long-term situation that the total oil reserves fluctuated within a narrow range of 460Mt to 480 mt. 1998 1 broke through the 500Mt mark in one fell swoop and continued to soar at1. Inventories kept breaking records, reflecting the serious situation of oversupply in the international oil market at that time. Although the rapid increase in inventory helps to absorb a large amount of excess oil, to some extent, it relieves the pressure of a sharp drop in oil prices, but the sharp drop in oil prices occurs almost simultaneously. By February 1999, the oil price fell below the psychological line of $0/0 per barrel. This shows that the environmental conditions restricting the world oil market have changed greatly after 1997.
(3) If there is no inventory adjustment, the fluctuation range of oil price will obviously increase.
The research shows that even if the original market is in equilibrium, the consumption behavior will change due to the changes of economic growth, energy conservation, alternative energy development and other factors, which may also destroy the original balance and make oil price fluctuations inevitable. Moreover, due to the uncoordinated adjustment between production and consumption, oil prices have a skyrocketing trend, and even cannot reach a relatively stable state for a long time. And the fluctuation range of oil price has obviously increased, but there is no sign of gradual convergence of oil price fluctuation under the condition of adjustable inventory.
Therefore, whether in the past relatively stable period or in the period of drastic changes, the existence of inventory will help to curb or alleviate the excessive changes in oil prices.
Therefore, in the long run, OPEC crude oil output, the level of world economic activity (GDP) and OECD oil reserves are the most important and basic factors affecting international crude oil prices.