Is the policy of aluminum as a non-ferrous metal the deciding line or the trend?
Obviously, this word is used in the whole stock market.
The following is the stock market trend about the decision-making direction of non-ferrous metals.
Coal stocks: The dividend yield of the next industry is higher. It is suggested that the recent low rebound of PMI index is the leading indicator of macroeconomic recovery. In addition, coal stocks will be reduced for two consecutive months. With the next warming of the industry, the destocking process of the coal industry may be faster than expected. Among the main industries of coal, the situation of steel industry is greatly affected by the global financial crisis, and it is difficult to make substantial improvement in the short term. However, electric power, building materials, chemicals and other industries are picking up with the economic recovery, and the recovery of demand has provided strong support for the prosperity of the coal industry. Global excess liquidity has increased inflation expectations, and it is expected that commodity prices will gradually bottom out. At present, the overall valuation of the coal sector is low, but as a global resource-based industry, coal stocks have good performance stability, high dividend yield and high safety margin, so we can pay attention to Yangguo Xinneng, Orchid Kechuang, Xishan Coal and Electricity and Yanzhou Coal Industry. (shanghai securities news) Policy Support Non-ferrous Metals Industry Stabilized and Rebound With the encouragement of the National Non-ferrous Metals Revitalization Plan, the non-ferrous metals industry continued to rebound. Although it is hard to say that the global economy has entered a recovery, it is undeniable that the trend of economic recession has slowed down, and there are even some signs of bottoming out. From the indicators of nonferrous metal output, operating rate, orders, purchasing managers' index of manufacturing industry in March, unemployment rate, processing fees and so on, the fundamentals of the real economy of nonferrous metal industry are gradually picking up. In March this year, the purchasing managers' index of China's manufacturing industry was 52.4%, which has been rising for four consecutive months. Among them, the growth rate of China's manufacturing industry has increased, and the output of most metal end products has increased, indicating that the consumption demand of metals is picking up. However, the reduction of production, storage and scrap metal supply has suppressed the short-term metal supply and supported the recent rebound in metal prices. In the first quarter of 2009, domestic SHFE metal futures prices rose by an average of 23.59%, aluminum rose by 1 1.79%, and copper rose by 42.46%. According to the analysis, the domestic economic stimulus plan and purchasing and storage are the main reasons to promote the sharp rise of the domestic market. In the same period, the price increase of domestic nonferrous metals was higher than that of the international market, creating arbitrage space. Coupled with the domestic metal purchasing and storage policy, the domestic imports of aluminum, copper and other metals increased significantly during 2009 1-2, but the domestic output and imports of corresponding ore raw materials did not increase significantly, which shows that the basic demand of domestic non-ferrous metals did not improve substantially during this period. From the inventory situation, in the first quarter of 2009, LME metal inventory increased by 40.02% on average, of which aluminum inventory increased by 49.04% and copper inventory increased by 47.38%, hitting new highs in recent years respectively. Inventory changes show that non-ferrous metals are in a state of oversupply. From April 1, in order to meet the external demand, the export tax rebate policy for non-ferrous metals was restarted and raised. This increase in export tax rebate mainly involves high-end metal products, and will also increase the demand for smelting products. It is expected to increase the export tax rebate rate, mainly focusing on high-end metal products, including cold plates, galvanized steel and aluminum. At present, the main metal products except gold are in a serious surplus state, and the export tax rebate has a certain stimulating effect on the export demand of high-end products, which will also increase the demand for smelting products. It mainly involves high-end steel products and copper-aluminum deep processing products, which will further increase the export profits of domestic related metal processing enterprises and increase the operating rate of these enterprises, thus increasing the demand for domestic metal smelting products and making the metal industry chain move towards a virtuous circle. In addition, driven by the increase in export profits, domestic products flow abroad, which has a certain effect on improving the overall surplus of domestic metal supply and demand. In view of the fact that the fundamentals such as supply and demand cannot be alleviated in the short term, the industry as a whole is moving in the direction of stabilization and recovery. Pay attention to the three major investment opportunities, including the strategic reports of investment institutions such as Tianxiang Investment, China Investment Securities, CITIC Securities and Qilu Securities on non-ferrous metals, and think that we should pay attention to the three major investment opportunities. First, pay attention to listed companies with resource advantages. It can obviously benefit when the metal price rises, but it is still necessary to comprehensively judge the long-term resource development status, long-term profitability, cost control level, asset operation efficiency, long-term financial level, long-term development strategy and development prospect of the enterprise. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to Zhongjin Lingnan (000060), Chihong Zinc Germanium (600497), Shandong Gold (600547) and Admiralty Gold (600489). Second, new materials, new technologies and new products will become the long-term investment theme of the future industry. Investors are advised to pay attention to Baogang Rare Earth (60011), Baoti (600456), Dongfang Zirconium Industry (002 167), Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549) and nanshan aluminum (6002/kloc). Third, M&A is an eternal theme. In the revitalization plan, the policy clearly proposes to promote enterprise restructuring and optimize industrial layout. In this regard, analysts believe that non-ferrous metal enterprises with the background of central enterprises such as Chinalco, China Nonferrous Metals and Minmetals Group will generally benefit. Domestic reorganization and integration will further improve the concentration of the industry, while foreign resource mergers and acquisitions will continue to create surprises.