The composition of futures market risk The futures market risk mainly includes: market environment risk, market transaction subject risk and market supervision risk. 1. After the introduction of risk stock index futures in the market environment, the securities market environment will change, bringing all kinds of uncertainties. Mainly from the following aspects: (1) The risk of excessive speculation in the market. The original intention of introducing stock index futures is to meet the needs of risk management and to curb excessive speculation in the market to a certain extent, but it is difficult to change the speculative psychology and behavior of traders in the short term. The attraction of stock index futures to traders mainly comes from the amplification effect of its profit and loss. To some extent, the introduction of stock index futures tools may be equivalent to the introduction of a more speculative tool, which may further expand the speculative atmosphere in the securities market. (2) The risk of market efficiency. According to the theory of market efficiency, if the market price completely reflects all the information available at present, then this market is an effective and powerful market; If a few people have more information or get information earlier than most investors and get huge profits, then this market is inefficient and weak. (3) Transaction transfer risk. Because of its low transaction cost and high leverage ratio, stock index futures will attract some pure speculators or investors who prefer high risk to switch from the stock spot market to the stock index futures market, and even lead to transaction transfer. The supply of funds in the market is certain. At the beginning of the introduction of stock index futures, the diversion of stock funds may impact the trading in the stock spot market. There are also such examples abroad. For example, after Japan introduced stock index futures on 1998, the trading volume of the stock index futures market far exceeded that of the spot market, reaching 10 times of that of the spot market, while the trading in the spot market became increasingly light. (4) Liquidity risk. If the futures contract is not designed properly, it will lead to the dilemma of no market. Among other factors, contract value is the key factor that directly affects the liquidity of stock index futures market. Generally speaking, the higher the contract value, the worse the liquidity. If the contract value is too high and exceeds the investment ability of most participants in the market, many participants will be excluded from the market; If the contract value is too low, it will inevitably increase the cost of hedging and affect the enthusiasm of investors to hedge with stock index futures. Therefore, the contract value will affect its liquidity. 2. In the risk practice of market trading entities, stock index futures are divided into three categories according to the nature of transactions: first, hedging transactions; The second is arbitrage trading; The third is speculative trading. Accordingly, there are three trading subjects: hedgers, arbitrageurs and speculators. Investors involved in the transaction include securities issuers, fund management companies, insurance companies and small and medium-sized retail investors, and investors constantly change their roles because of their participation in different transactions. Although the original driving force of stock index futures lies in hedging trading, speculation and arbitrage trading with stock index is an important reason for the rapid development of stock index futures. (1) Risks faced by hedgers. A considerable number of investors participate in stock index futures trading, hoping to hedge with stock index futures and avoid risks. Although the establishment of stock index futures is to provide investors with normal hedging channels and flexible operating tools, the success of hedging transactions is conditional, that is, the stock spot held by investors is consistent with the stock index structure, or has a strong correlation. No matter how clever investors are, it is impossible to do this completely in practice, especially small and medium-sized retail investors. If investors do not know enough about the futures market, hedging may fail. The failure of hedging mainly stems from the wrong decision, and its specific reasons include: first, the composition structure of the stocks that hedgers need to hedge in the spot market is inconsistent with the futures index; Second, the wrong expectation of the price trend makes the timing of hedging inappropriate; Third, improper fund management, lack of sufficient tolerance for large fluctuations in futures prices. When the futures price changes in an unfavorable direction in a short period of time, investors do not have enough margin to add, and are forced to cut their positions, which leads to the abortion of the hedging plan. (2) Risks faced by arbitrageurs. Arbitrage is across the two cities. According to the pricing principle of stock index futures, its price is determined by risk-free rate of return and stock dividends. Theoretically, if there is a strong correlation between stock structure and futures index, arbitrage is almost risk-free. However, there is a premise to obtain this risk-free return: that is, the arbitrageur's estimate of the theoretical futures price is correct. If the estimate is wrong, arbitrage is risky. Because the interest rate in China is not market-oriented, the dividend rate of the company is uncertain, and the change of stock price is largely not determined by the intrinsic value of the stock, which makes arbitrage technically risky. (3) Risks faced by speculators. Speculators face the three risks mentioned above: "leverage", "uncertainty of price rise and fall" and "traders' own factors". Simply put, speculators are in an uncertain market, and any risk will be magnified dozens of times under the action of leverage, including some of their own factors. Speculation often accounts for a large proportion in the trading volume of stock index futures. 1999 the market survey of hong kong futures market shows that speculative profits account for 74% of the total trading volume (hedging accounts for 17.5% and arbitrage accounts for 8.5%). In the futures market, the funds involved in the transaction flow quickly, and the price fluctuation in the futures market is generally more intense than in other markets. 3. Risks in market supervision have insufficient regulatory basis for stock index futures, which leads to great variables in trading rules of stock index futures, and the uncertainty of game rules will contain great risks. Although this kind of risk will not happen frequently, it is inevitable to intervene in the market by administrative order when problems arise. The securities and futures market consists of listed companies, securities institutions, investors and other market participants, and is effectively organized by the securities and futures exchanges. In this series of links, there should be corresponding legal norms. Edit the risk characteristics of the futures market in this section. The unique margin system, hedging mechanism, two-way trading mechanism and daily settlement system of futures exchange make it an effective means to avoid market price risks, but at the same time, as a unique trading method, futures trading itself also contains huge risks. Compared with the risks in other markets, the risks in the futures market are complex and multifaceted. Generally speaking, futures market risk has the following characteristics: 1, the objectivity of risk existence; 2. Magnification of risk factors; 3. Nature of risks and opportunities; 4. Relativity of risk assessment; 5. Equal risk and loss; 6. Preventability of risks. Edit the futures market risk type in this paragraph: 1, from controllable to uncontrollable risks, such as macroeconomic environment and government policies. Controllable risks, such as management risks and technical risks. 2. From the transaction link: agency risk, transaction risk and delivery risk. 3. From the main body: there are futures exchanges, futures brokerage companies, customers and the government. 4. From the causes: market risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. Edit the causes of futures market risk in this paragraph: 1, price fluctuation 2, leverage effect-the main symbol different from other investment tools, and also the reason for high risk in futures market. 3. irrational speculation 4. Imperfect market mechanism-risks such as liquidity, settlement and delivery. The prevention of futures market risks in this paragraph is the premise and foundation for the futures market to give full play to its functions; It is the need to slow down or eliminate the adverse impact of futures market on social economy; It is to meet the needs of world economic liberalization and international development. As an investor in the futures market, we should pay attention to the following aspects in the risk prevention of futures trading: 1. Strictly abide by the risk management systems of futures exchanges and futures brokerage companies. If you violate these rules, you will be in a very passive position. 2. The capital and scale of investment must be fair and appropriate. If there is a problem with the capital channel, once it is tightened, it will inevitably affect the transaction; If the transaction scale is improper, blindly or excessively placing orders, you will face great risks beyond your financial resources and ability. Remember, the futures market is a venture capital market, not a casino. Don't belittle yourself as a gambler. 3. Have a good investment strategy. According to their own conditions (funds, time, health, etc.). ), cultivate good psychological quality, constantly enrich themselves, and gradually form their own investment strategy. 4. Pay attention to information, analyze the situation and pay attention to every link of futures market risk. The futures market is a place full of information, so it is necessary to gradually cultivate analytical ability and fully grasp valuable information. At the same time, always pay attention to the changes in the market and improve the sensitivity of your reaction. Remember that the market is always right. Market risk is unpredictable, but it can be prevented by analysis. In this regard, investors have to do a lot of work. Most importantly, when investing in the market, we should first start with the familiar varieties, do a good job in basic work, start with fundamental analysis, supplemented by technical analysis, and start with hedging futures, which is more secure. Don't go against the trend, you must set a "stop loss point" at the beginning to avoid the loss from expanding and it is difficult to get away with it.