Last Friday, I began to suggest shorting rallies. We have successfully laid out the market, and the highest profit is about 70 points. Have you seized this market?
Soda rose 0.80% to close at 2530.
The price of soda ash continued to fluctuate in the range of 2400-2600 this week. At present, the gap of soda ash is still there. In the case of weak floating profit, high PV and export anxiety, the short game point is negative expectation.
First, the short game is a floating loss, and the dilemma is difficult to disappear in the short term, but it is difficult to see the cold repair in 2009. The "kiln protection" spreading in the week needs economic implementation, and there is a certain demand for soda ash. What really needs to be discussed is whether the 30-day raw material inventory is reasonable, and the extreme value inside and outside the factory needs further verification.
Second, short-term game, photovoltaic will accumulate in a short time due to the restriction of silicon material on downstream installation, but the new photovoltaic glass line still has an ignition plan, and the demand for soda ash is still increasing.
Third, the short game, worries about exports, this year's export volume is attributed to the domestic price advantage after the foreign coal energy price went up. Recently, domestic and international demand is at risk of falling back, but domestic prices still have a price advantage in export response, and the expectation of 10- 15000 tons is still continuing.
So in reality, the gap of soda ash continues. When the gap is expected to be closed, it will have to be cold-patched, but it is unlikely to be large-scale cold-patched before the 09 contract, so the gap in 09 continues; At the same time, the current ex-factory price is generally maintained above 2800, and there are fewer goods near 2700 in the middle reaches. In the case of a sharp rise in spot prices, there is insufficient space under the 09 contract, and the delivery month is approaching, mainly short.
From the horse's point of view:
The downward trend began to fall, and the 10 moving average began to support. Now soda ash is in a volatile market, and support will rebound. Then in the short term, take short-term profits and prepare more lists.
From the perspective of MACD:
The red energy column began to weaken, indicating that in the long-short game, the multi-party power began to weaken and the empty power began to strengthen. Waiting for the red ability column to weaken and the top deviation is the opportunity for empty orders to intervene. Now this opportunity has appeared, so short-term empty orders are the main ones.
From the perspective of KDJ:
At the 60-minute level, bow your head and reach the previous low point. Because it is a volatile market now, we should be alert to whether our head will appear in the short term. Then, it is necessary to make short profits and intervene in multiple orders.
Operation strategy:
The main contract of Soda 2209 experienced a wave of callback, and KDJ began to reach the previous low point in 60 minutes. Now in a volatile market, the night market may rebound to a certain extent. Empty orders can consider taking profit, and multiple orders are waiting for intervention. Support level 2497, pressure level 2600.
Related Q&A: What is the Tier 1 margin of soda ash futures? How to calculate? The futures price of soda ash is 2800 yuan/ton, 2800 * 20 * 12% = 6720 yuan/lot, and the first-hand transaction needs about 7000 yuan. Soda ash futures contract code SA, 20 tons per lot, minimum fluctuation price 1 yuan/ton, soda ash futures fluctuation 20 yuan, margin 12%. Margin calculation: current market price * contract unit * margin ratio = actual trading margin. Soda futures commission: the amount of money per lot is the amount, which is not affected by the market price. The opening price and closing price of soda ash futures are both 3.50 yuan, free of charge. All contracts of soda ash futures have a uniform handling fee standard. Related question and answer: Do you know the relationship between soda ash and glass? How to judge the market of soda ash futures today? One ton of glass consumes about 0.2 tons of soda ash, which is the main raw material of glass.
The chemical name of soda ash is sodium carbonate (Na2CO3), its molecular weight is 105.99, and its mass fraction is more than 99.5%. It is also called soda ash or alkali ash in international trade. Soda soda is one of the most basic chemical raw materials, which is mainly used to produce flat glass, glass products and ceramic glaze. It is widely used in household washing, acid neutralization and food processing. Soda soda is a white granular anhydrous substance, which is easily soluble in water. When exposed to air at room temperature, it can absorb CO2 and water, and give off heat, which is gradually transformed into NaHCO3 and caked. Soda soda includes light alkali and heavy alkali, and there are some differences in production methods and physical properties. In the production process, enterprises generally use liquid phase hydration method to make calcined light alkali into ultra-low salt heavy soda ash. China Soda Trading Network shows that the density range of heavy soda ash is generally 1, 000- 1, 200kg/m3, while that of light soda ash is generally 500-600kg/m3. Our futures delivery products are the core raw materials of heavy alkali and glass.
At present, there are three main soda production processes: ammonia-alkali process, combined alkali process and natural alkali process, among which ammonia-alkali process and combined alkali process have the largest soda production, accounting for 49% and 45% respectively.
According to different production processes, flat glass can be divided into float glass, calendered glass, vertical drawing glass and flat drawing glass. Due to the poor quality of glass produced by Czochralski method and flat method, at present, flat glass is mainly float glass and calendered glass. The downstream demand of flat glass covers construction, automobile, photovoltaic and other fields, while the downstream of float glass mainly covers real estate and automobile industries.
The follow-up market of soda ash and glass futures is currently in February, 20021year, and soda ash will increase in the future, mainly due to less new production capacity, loose policies on the glass demand side and intensive photovoltaic glass production plans, which will pull soda ash from the demand side. In the future, I think the future price of soda ash may hit 2000 or even higher, of course, the process will be more tortuous.