1. Supply and demand
According to the principle of microeconomics, when the supply of a commodity exceeds the demand, its price falls, and vice versa. At the same time, price will affect supply and demand in turn, that is, when the price rises, supply will increase and demand will decrease, on the contrary, demand will increase and supply will decrease, so price and supply and demand are interactive.
2. Macroeconomic situation
Copper is an important industrial raw material and its demand is closely related to the economic situation. When the economy grows, the demand for copper increases, thus pushing up the price of copper. When the economy is depressed, the demand for copper shrinks, which pushes the price of copper down. When analyzing macro-economy, two indicators are very important, one is economic growth rate, or GDP growth rate, and the other is industrial production growth rate.
3. Import and export policies
Import and export policy, especially tariff policy, is an important means to control the import and export volume of a certain commodity and balance domestic supply and demand by adjusting the import and export cost of commodities. Since June 5438+1 October1day, China has implemented zero tariff on refined copper imports, and the export tax rate of high-purity refined copper is 5%. The export tax rate of copper master alloy is 10% (Announcement No.79 of the General Administration of Customs in 2007), and the import and export tax rate has been lowered.
4. Expansion and substitution of copper consumption
Consumption is a direct factor affecting copper price, and the development of copper industry is an important factor affecting consumption. For example, after the 1990s, copper used in pipelines in developed countries increased greatly, and the construction industry became the largest consumer of copper, which promoted the rise of international copper prices in the mid-1990s. The housing operating rate in the United States also became one of the influencing factors of copper prices. Since 2003, the development of real estate and electricity in China has greatly promoted the growth of copper consumption, which has become one of the factors supporting copper prices. In the automobile industry, manufacturers advocate replacing copper with aluminum to reduce the weight of automobiles, thus reducing the amount of copper used in industry. In addition, with the rapid development of science and technology, the application scope of copper has been expanding, and copper has begun to play a role in medicine, biology, superconductivity and environmental protection.
IBM (Weibo) Company replaced aluminum in silicon wafer with copper, which marked the latest breakthrough in the application of copper in semiconductor technology. These changes will affect the consumption of copper to varying degrees.
5. Production cost of copper
Production cost is the basis of measuring commodity price level. The production cost of copper includes smelting cost and refining cost. The calculation of copper production cost is different in different mines. The most common economic analysis is to adopt "cash flow guarantee cost", which decreases with the increase of by-product value. After 1990s, the production cost showed a downward trend.
6. The trading direction of the fund
Although the fund industry has a long history, it didn't flourish until the 1990s. At the same time, the fund's participation in commodity futures trading has also greatly improved. Judging from the evolution of the copper market in the last decade, funds have played a role in fueling many big markets.
7. The price fluctuation of oil and other related commodities will also have an impact on copper prices.
Crude oil and copper are important international industrial raw materials, and strong demand can best reflect the quality of the economy. Therefore, in the long run, the level of oil price and copper price has a good correlation with the speed of economic development. Because both crude oil and copper are closely related to macro-economy, there is a positive correlation between copper price and oil price to some extent. However, the two trends are consistent, and short-term price fluctuations are not necessarily consistent.
8. Exchange rate fluctuations
International copper transactions are generally denominated in dollars, but at present, several major currencies in the world implement floating exchange rate system. With the official launch of June 1 99965438+1October1Euro, the international foreign exchange market has formed a three-legged trend of USD, EUR and JPY.
Because the exchange rates among these three major currencies often fluctuate greatly, the international copper price priced in US dollars will also be affected by the exchange rates, which vary from US dollars to Japanese yen (1994- 1995) and 124.38, 0. 1600, 0./kloc-0.
(B) Pay attention to trading rules
trade
1, warehouse quota system
Limited position refers to the maximum number of speculative positions in a contract that a member or customer can hold according to the regulations of the exchange.
2. Hedging transactions
To apply for hedging transactions, you need to fill in the < < Shanghai Futures Exchange Hedging Application (Approval) Form >; & gt, and submit relevant certification materials consistent with the variety, trading position, trading quantity and hedging time of the hedging application.
To close/close/close an account
Refers to the business activities of calculating and distributing the trading margin, profit and loss, handling fees, settlement funds and other related funds of members according to the trading results and the relevant regulations of the exchange.
transmit
1. Settlement price for delivery: the settlement price on the last trading day.
2. Delivery unit: 25 tons. The weight of cathode copper listed in each standard warehouse receipt is 25 tons, with no more than +2% of excess and shortage, and no more than +0.2% of excess and shortage.
3. Packaging of delivered goods
Futures to spot
Refers to the members (customers) who hold the opposite direction of the current month's contract and reach an agreement through consultation, and apply to the Shanghai Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the Exchange). After the approval of the exchange, the exchange will close the position on its behalf at the price stipulated by the exchange, and at the same time exchange warehouse receipts with the same quantity, variety and direction as the subject matter of the futures contract at the agreed price.