Domestic refined oil prices are dynamically linked to international oil prices, which lays an important foundation for the refined oil price adjustment window to open at 24: 00 on March 17. At present, the unit price of 92# gasoline in most cities in China is around 6.3 yuan/liter. If the oil price is lowered at 24: 00 on March 17, it is not impossible for 92# gasoline to return to the 5 yuan era. Although the downward adjustment of oil prices has certain positive significance for stabilizing prices and reducing consumption levels, many people in the industry have expressed greater concern about the already precarious new energy industry.
However, hackers believe that even if domestic oil prices remain low for a long time, the impact on the domestic new energy industry is quite limited. Let's take a look at the reasons with Parker.
At present, there are two major backgrounds for the continuous decline of international oil prices. First, because the new round of "OPEC+"production reduction negotiations broke down on March 6, Saudi Arabia quickly launched a "price war"; Second, with the spread of the global epidemic, the demand for oil continues to be weak, and the oil price has been adjusted by the relationship between market supply and demand. But in the long run, the oil "price war" is unlikely to last too long, and the demand for oil will soon return to normal after the epidemic, so the international oil price is unlikely to remain at the current ultra-low price.
In addition, even if the international oil price goes down for a long time, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil products will still be affected by the minimum price. The so-called minimum price limit means that the lower limit level of China's refined oil price regulation is set at 40 USD/barrel, and the upper limit is 65,438 USD+0,30 USD/barrel. That is to say, when the international oil price is lower than 40 USD/barrel or higher than 130 USD/barrel on average, the domestic refined oil price will not change. Based on this calculation, the lowest price of domestic 92# refined oil is hardly lower than 5 yuan/liter. According to the actual fuel consumption of 8L/ 100km of ordinary fuel vehicles, the fuel cost of driving 20,000 km a year needs at least 8,000 yuan. In contrast, new energy vehicles still have obvious advantages in saving the cost of car maintenance.
Although the popularity of new energy is increasing day by day, from the 20 19 domestic new energy sales data, the sales of new energy vehicles in cities with restricted purchases still account for more than 40%. It can also be seen from this point that the license policy of new energy vehicles is still an important reason for many consumers to choose new energy. As long as China's preferential license policy for new energy is not cancelled, the level of oil price will hardly become a decisive factor affecting consumers' purchase decision.
In addition to the license policy, many parts of the country have also put forward new energy requirements for new network cars. For example, Hainan requires that the newly registered network car must be a new energy vehicle from 2020. In addition, according to the sales data of new energy in 20 19, individuals accounted for 52.6% and leasing companies and units accounted for 47.4% of the new ownership of new energy passenger cars. It can be seen that policy encouragement has played a key role in the sales of new energy vehicles.
Of course, the policy also has a good understanding of the support of the new energy industry. After all, China's automobile industry started late, and it is not realistic for fuel vehicles to overtake in corners. New energy vehicles are a comprehensive innovation for traditional car companies. Coupled with the relatively rich new energy technology reserves of China car companies, state support is also reasonable.
As mentioned above, in 20 19, the sales of new energy in restricted cities accounted for more than 40%, and the sales of new energy in non-restricted cities also accounted for more than 50%. For new energy users in these non-restricted cities, in addition to lower fuel costs, the unique driving experience of new energy vehicles is believed to be a major reason for them to pay the bill. For example, BYD Tang DM only takes 4.4 seconds to accelerate 100 kilometers at the earliest, which is very difficult for medium-sized fuel SUVs with the same price.
For example, new energy vehicles can give drivers and passengers the feeling of pure electric driving, and some new energy vehicles are more advanced in interior and exterior design, which will also bring different car experience to consumers. Therefore, for these non-restricted urban users who like to "try early", it is difficult for the rise and fall of oil prices to affect their purchase decisions. In addition, many consumers are increasing their purchases. They already have a fuel car at home, and the second car is developing in the direction of pure electric. The impact of oil prices is even smaller.
Then, will car companies slow down the development of new energy vehicles because of falling oil prices? Parker thinks it's unlikely. First of all, at present, all major car companies have clear new energy plans. For example, Geely and BYD all have their own pure electric platforms. It can be said that everyone is trying to develop new energy sources. And in the long run, cars will get rid of dependence on oil in the future. Whether it is pure electric or fuel cell, new energy is an irreversible trend.
In addition, compared with fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles can be said to be the best carrier for autonomous driving. First of all, in terms of electrification, new energy vehicles are easier to control than traditional fuel vehicles, because it is much easier to control the magnitude and output of voltage and current than to control internal combustion engines. Moreover, the normal operation of 5G technology, various sensors and various intelligent chips also puts forward higher requirements for the stable supply of electricity. New energy vehicles are more suitable than traditional fuel vehicles.
From the situation discussed above, although the domestic price of No.92 gasoline is expected to return to the 5 yuan era, the impact on the new energy industry should not be too great. However, for pure electric vehicles with a price of less than 6.5438+10,000 yuan, their consumers are more sensitive to the price. The downward adjustment of oil prices may indeed make them switch to fuel vehicles, which will also force the continuous upgrading of the entire new energy industry. How to treat the influence of low oil price on new energy industry?
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.