1On the evening of October 30, the People's Bank of China announced that the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions would be lowered by 0.5 percentage points from February 5, 20 165438. This is the first time that the central bank has lowered the deposit reserve ratio in three years. I think China's CPI has just dropped to 5.5% in June 5438+ 10, and it is eager to lower the deposit reserve ratio. There are some signs:
1. is related to the decline of economic development: the GDP growth rate dropped from 9.7% in the first quarter to 9.5% in the second quarter and 9. 1% in the third quarter. Under multiple pressures at home and abroad, we can achieve the goal of boosting the economy, solving employment, stabilizing employees' income and stabilizing society by appropriately relaxing monetary policy. However, reducing the deposit reserve ratio may lead to a certain increase in the scale of credit. First, solving the problem of enterprise capital chain may not have obvious effect today when private small and medium-sized enterprises are the main creators of GDP; Second, in the environment of high reserve ratio, financial institutions have formed a certain way to bypass monetary policy through the innovation of financial instruments, and the actual effect of monetary policy has been discounted.
2. The issuance of local fiscal bonds has squeezed the release of currency liquidity, expanded investment but reduced consumption. The mixed use of expansionary fiscal policy and expansionary monetary policy has kept the market interest rate stable. In the case of high CPI, the loan interest rate will not be greatly loosened, otherwise this year's regulation (especially the regulation of housing prices) will be in vain.
3. With the continuous increase of the deposit reserve ratio, the economy and society have gradually adapted. This downward adjustment is somewhat tentative. Let's lower our heads and ask our husband, is thrush fashionable?
The following are the views of economists:
Economists believe that the reduction of the reserve ratio will help to maintain steady and rapid economic growth under the current complicated situation.
1. is intended to release liquidity.
"The central bank announced the reduction of the reserve ratio, mainly considering that the actual level of the current reserve ratio is high and the foreign exchange holdings are reduced, which leads to tight bank liquidity and restricts the bank's credit capacity." Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, pointed out that lowering the reserve ratio is conducive to alleviating the liquidity pressure of banks and promoting the reasonable growth of money and credit.
Relevant data show that since 20 10, China's central bank has continuously raised the deposit reserve ratio 12 in response to inflationary pressure, but it has brought about a general tightening of market liquidity this year to some extent. According to the latest data of the central bank, at the end of 10, the balance of broad money (M2) in China was 8 1.68 trillion yuan, up by 12.9% year-on-year, and the balance of narrow money (M 1) was 27.66 trillion yuan, up by 8.4% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of money supply is at a low point in recent years. Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank, also believes that China and liquidity in the banking system failed to meet expectations, which is the direct reason for forcing the central bank to reduce the reserve ratio and increase liquidity.
After this adjustment, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions is 2 1%, and that of small and medium-sized financial institutions is 17.5%. After an increase of 0.5 percentage points, it can release more than 400 billion yuan of liquidity.
2. Send a signal of steady growth
"At the key nodes of unstable external demand, slowing domestic economic growth and weakening inflationary pressure, the central bank lowered the reserve ratio and released the signal of steady growth." Zhuang Jian, a senior economist at the China Representative Office of the Asian Development Bank, said.
Relevant data show that the risk of China's economic growth slowdown is increasing. At present, the GDP growth rate has dropped from 9.7% in the first quarter to 9.5% in the second quarter and 9. 1% in the third quarter. At the same time, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in1month recently released by HSBC hit the lowest level in 32 months, reflecting that the downside risks of China's economy are increasing. In addition, due to the deep spread of European sovereign debt crisis, China, the largest export market, entered the most difficult period after World War II. Since September, China's exports have been negative for two consecutive months.
"Under the circumstances that China's foreign exchange holdings are decreasing, inflation is declining, the pressure of RMB appreciation is weakening, and even the risk of private lending capital chain is increasing, the central bank wants to seize this opportunity to reduce the reserve ratio that has been at a high level and achieve the effect of releasing liquidity." Sun, a professor at Fudan University, thinks.
At the same time that the central bank announced the reduction of the reserve ratio, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the sales electricity price was raised by 3 cents per kWh from 65438+February/kloc-0. The price of residential electricity will not be raised for the time being.
"The central bank lowered the reserve ratio and the National Development and Reform Commission raised the electricity price. Obviously, this is a policy mix. Under the background of weakening inflationary pressure and economic slowdown, China's policy tone of controlling inflation has quietly turned to maintaining growth by moderately relaxing the currency to promote the price reform of production factors. " Guan Qingyou, a senior researcher at China CNOOC Energy Economic Research Institute, thinks.
3. It remains to be seen whether the monetary policy will turn.
Experts are generally cautious about whether this downward adjustment means a change in China's monetary policy.
"The reduction of the reserve ratio by the central bank cannot be understood as a directional change in monetary policy. On June 5438+ 10, the decrease of foreign exchange holdings led to the net loss of liquidity in the banking system, and the substantial increase of fiscal revenue and its characteristics of receiving first and paying later also led to the phased decrease of some bank deposits. Therefore, the central bank's reduction of the reserve ratio is only a hedging policy for liquidity. " Guo Tianyong, director of the China Banking Research Center of the Central University of Finance and Economics, judged that the policy still needs to remain stable in view of high prices, structural adjustment, real estate regulation and other factors. Zhuang Jian also believes that compared with the previous tight monetary environment, this downward adjustment is only the embodiment of further fine-tuning of monetary policy, and it remains to be seen whether the policy will fully turn.
Tao Dong, chief economist in Asia-Pacific region of Credit Suisse, believes that the current domestic reserve ratio index is on the high side, and the reduction of reserve ratio is a technical reduction. Judging from the average monetary index in the past 10 years, the normalization of China's monetary environment has just begun. (/a/20 1 1 1 130/00 1557 . htm)