Today, May 20, is a day of love, also known as "Internet Valentine's Day". For us farmers, the recent trend of pig prices is indeed "interesting" "Love", ripples of "love" are appearing one after another. The price of pigs in many places in the north and south has entered the "8 era". For some farmers who breed and raise themselves, they have achieved "turning losses into profits". There must be nothing like this. The atmosphere of "love" is even stronger.
According to monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of the end of April, the number of breeding sows nationwide was 41.773 million, a decrease of 0.2% from 41.85 million in March, and a month-on-month decrease for 10 consecutive months.
At the same time, the national pig population in April 2022 fell by 0.2% year-on-year. This is the first year-on-year decrease since June 2021. From this, we can see that the rebound in pig prices is the result of the " "Below the cost level" to "cost line regression" is not a trend increase caused by insufficient production capacity, so everyone must have a plan in mind.
Recently, after a month of rapid rise, pig futures suddenly "changed" on May 17. The main pig futures contract LH2209 once hit a high of 19,915 yuan/ton after opening on May 17. , setting a new high since June 2021. However, positions were subsequently reduced significantly during the session. In the end, the main contract fell 4.64% to 18,825 yuan/ton, leading the decline in the commodity market, and all the gains in the previous week were wiped out.
This shows that although the price of pigs has rebounded significantly with the help of farmers holding down the stalls, the production capacity of reproductive sows has peaked, and the country has successively purchased and stockpiled pigs, pig prices have rebounded significantly due to the slow improvement in end-use pork consumption demand. Overall production capacity is still relatively sufficient, and the recovery of pig prices may have twists and turns.
Industry analysts said: At present, the profits of domestic pig farming have been restored to a large extent. The high price of piglets has also led to a reduction in the replacement and culling of gilts. It is expected that the number of reproductive sows may be reduced in May. There has been a rebound, and the trend of domestic pig overcapacity reduction may end in stages. This also indicates that pig prices will be difficult to rise to an excessively high level. As domestic pig prices continue to climb to "new highs", the resistance to market growth is also gradually increasing. , there is still the risk of rising and falling.
One is that the overall pig supply in the market will continue to have loose fundamentals, especially the increase in secondary fattening, which will lead to an increase in the number of market standard pigs and the average pig slaughter weight will continue to increase; the other is Domestic feed costs are still high, and it is difficult for the breeding side to continue to sell pigs. As the pigs are gradually profitable, the breeding side's sentiment of settling for safety has become stronger, and the sentiment of large-scale pigs fleeing at high prices may intensify; the last one is to follow the trend. With the arrival of midsummer, the market demand for fat pork is poor, and consumption constraints may become more severe. On the breeding side, affected by high temperatures and humidity, pig farm diseases may increase, and the panic about slaughtering has intensified.
Therefore, based on the multi-faceted game of the market, pig prices will still return to market fundamentals. It is expected that pig prices may show signs of shock and correction in the short term. For the subsequent upward momentum, the only way to rely on the third and fourth quarters is The consumer market is ushering in new changes.
According to the pig price system monitoring, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, pig prices increased in 7, 1 fell, and 18 flat. Stable areas accounted for 69% of all monitoring. The overall pig market is in a "stable state." The trend is "mid-term and long-term gains".
According to the procurement difficulty of slaughtering enterprises, it is still difficult for slaughtering enterprises to purchase live pigs. There is obvious resistance to the acquisition of high-priced pig sources. The constraints in the wholesale market are obvious. There is a certain degree of uncertainty in the market in South China. In a 'bad market', local pig prices have seen a certain decline.
Market sentiment is average, and some companies still have a clear sentiment of lowering prices.
The pig prices of breeding groups have shown a downward and upward adjustment, and the rise in pig prices of pig companies has significantly weakened. The number of live pigs on the market of leading groups has shown a downward and upward adjustment. There has been a certain shrinkage in key areas, and their pig prices have declined to a certain extent. , it is difficult to transport high-priced pigs quickly.
The export price of white-striped pigs from slaughtering enterprises in the northern region has stabilized, and the delivery speed has been weak.
Early warning on the trend of pig prices tomorrow: Based on the analysis of recent pig market factors, it is expected that the price of pigs tomorrow will show a "stable and volatile" trend, and some areas will have a "falling" momentum under the background of price reduction by slaughterhouses.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange your views on the pig market, grasp the market trends, collect and share. I believe that after all kinds of hardships, you will be able to be reborn.