The heavy snow in 2008 will usher in a "most expensive Spring Festival" for China people. The continuous large-scale rain and snow disaster has seriously affected China's transportation network and brought great difficulties to the transportation of food and energy. People who are eager to go home for the New Year can only choose the "detour route" to go home, and the food in the people's vegetable basket may also increase in price. Foreign media generally predict that the inflation rate in China, which has risen to the highest level in 1 1 year, is likely to hit a new high in 1 month.
"The heavy snow has increased people's expenses several times."
"I only needed 600 yuan to go home, but now I have spent 5,000 yuan, and I still haven't been home." -This is the self-report of a netizen named "The most tortuous experience of returning to China". He said that in order to go back to his hometown in Hunan for a wedding, he traveled all over many cities, from car ticket exchange to train to plane ticket, which cost ten times more than usual, but he still couldn't go home.
Many foreign media have also focused their reports on the "millions of returnees" in China who have paid the price of money and time like this netizen.
The heavy snow has taken away the hopes of many returnees, and it is also likely to increase the price of ordinary people's food baskets. Many experts predict that with the approach of the Spring Festival, the market demand for agricultural products will reach a peak, coupled with the tight supply of vegetables in many areas caused by heavy snow, and the CPI may increase by 7% in June 5438+ 10. Some foreign media also believe that "the most important impact of heavy snow on China's economy will probably be the further rise of inflation rate".
Web analytics, an American market observer, thinks that the weather disaster in China may aggravate the inflation in 1 month. According to the article, the severe and fatal snowstorm in China and the power shortage caused by it will not have a significant impact on economic growth, but it is likely to aggravate inflation and prompt the China government to adopt other monetary tightening policies. The article quoted Paul, a Hong Kong economist, as saying: "The prices of agricultural products in China have soared recently. The impact of heavy snow on the economy can be overcome, but it is worrying that the inflation level is already high, but it may be further aggravated. " Reuters reported that thousands of trucks loaded with coal and food were paralyzed in China under the title of "Snowstorm Attacks China". Government agencies have asked residents in Shanghai and surrounding provinces and cities not to go out as much as possible. "In Shanghai, food shelves in many shopping malls have been snapped up. Some experts have judged that the economic impact of snowstorm may be as high as 7% in June 5438+10.
Since the middle of 65438 10, most of southern China and the eastern part of northwest China have suffered from continuous large-scale low-temperature rain, snow and freezing weather, which is rare in history. Affected by this bad weather, traffic in most parts of China is blocked, and the supply of agricultural and sideline products is tight.
In this regard, many analysts believe that the bad rain, snow and freezing weather will aggravate the already accelerated inflationary pressure, and the CPI may be as high as 7% in June 5438+ 10.
CITIC Securities Chen Jijun Company:
As the Spring Festival approaches, residents' centralized procurement itself increases the demand for food and grain, which will objectively drive up prices. It is estimated that the CPI will reach 6.5% in June 5438+ 10. However, due to the influence of weather conditions, traffic in most areas is blocked, which makes the supply of agricultural and sideline products and other materials more tense. Under the influence of this situation, the CPI may be as high as 7% in June 5438+ 10.
In addition to the price level in the first quarter may be affected by the snowstorm, due to the bad weather, prices will face greater upward pressure throughout the year. The rain and snow disaster has caused the affected area of crops to be 42 19.8 thousand hectares, which will greatly affect the harvest of summer grain, make the food supply more tense, and the price will still show an upward trend throughout the year.
CICC· ha Ji Ming:
Bad weather will have an impact on production activities, industrial added value and exports, which will slow down economic growth and increase inflationary pressure. It is estimated that the CPI in June 5438+ 10 is likely to reach more than 7%.
Shen Yin, Li Huiyong:
Transportation difficulties caused by rain and snow will increase the overall price level. Coupled with the Spring Festival factor, it is estimated that the CPI will reach 6.5-7% in the first quarter and close to 7% in February.
Deutsche Bank Ma Jun:
From a macro perspective, heavy snow will further push up food prices and worsen the already accelerated inflation. With the rising inflationary pressure, especially inflation expectations, the government may further tighten macroeconomic policies, which will not be conducive to economic growth.
From the industry point of view, the industries most seriously damaged by heavy snow in the short term are obviously tourism and transportation, including airlines, airports, highways, railways, hotels and tourism. At the same time, some industries will benefit from the snowstorm. The coal industry will benefit first, because the shortage of electricity and the increase of heating demand will further increase the price of coal. (This article Source: Securities Times Xiaobo Zheng Guo Lei)
Heavy snow presses the economy straight? China's economic growth may suffer.
Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank, believes that the snowstorm will further increase the food price in 1 month and February, thus aggravating inflation; The increase of inflationary pressure, especially the increase of inflation expectation, may prompt the government to further adopt macro-tightening policies, and China's economic growth may be damaged.
Heavy snow blocked traffic and cut off power supply in some areas. Then, to what extent will heavy snow affect the production and economy of enterprises?
Enterprise production is blocked
Liu Fengyuan, an associate professor at East China University of Political Science and Law, said in an interview with this reporter that the snowstorm caused factories in the affected areas to stop working, and raw materials could not be transported, which also affected factories in other areas. Many enterprises also hope to increase sales through the Spring Festival. Snowstorms have reduced the profits of daily production and sales enterprises, thus affecting the financial statements of listed companies in the first quarter.
Some listed companies disclosed the impact of snowstorm on production. Hunan N Chenzhou Mining Co., Ltd.1October 29th announced that its gold mine in Hunan Province has completely stopped production due to the influence of ice and snow weather on the normal supply of raw materials, electricity and water, and it is not expected to resume production before the Spring Festival holiday, but it will resume production after the weather improves obviously, and it is expected that the performance in the first quarter will be affected to some extent.
A manager of Zhuzhou Smelting Group Co., Ltd. said on the same day that the power shortage caused by continuous heavy snowfall has seriously affected the company's production. If the bad weather conditions continue, production may be limited or even stopped completely.
Stock prices and futures prices responded to the coming snowstorm. The recent downturn in the stock market is inseparable from the snowstorm, and investors are obviously worried about the impact of the blizzard on the economy. Due to the snowstorm, many domestic smelters stopped production. On June 29th, 65438, the metal price of Shanghai Futures Exchange rose across the board, and the copper futures price once again stood at the 60,000 yuan mark.
Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank, believes that transportation, independent power plants, retail, building materials, manufacturing enterprises and agriculture may be damaged in the short term, but the impact is short-lived.
Is it a knee jerk reaction?
From a macro perspective, will this snowstorm have a fleeting knee-jerk reaction to China's economy, or will it have a lasting impact?
Tan Ruyong, an associate professor at the Modern Finance Center of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said that the snowstorm may not have a great impact on economic growth, and the disaster has brought losses. However, the follow-up post-disaster reconstruction work needs the cooperation of active fiscal policies, fiscal expenditure will increase, and infrastructure construction will also increase.
According to the data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs on June 28th+1October 28th, the rain and snow weather process since June 28th+1October 28th has caused the affected area of crops to be 42 19.8 thousand hectares. 107,000 houses collapsed and 399,000 houses were damaged; The direct economic loss due to the disaster was 22.09 billion yuan.
Li, a researcher at Shanghai Institute of Finance and Law, said that the impact of the snowstorm on the economy was "incalculable". He believes that the new fiscal expenditure may have been used in other places with higher marginal effects.
The snowstorm "falling from the sky" has disrupted the rhythm of Spring Festival travel rush and may also disrupt the trajectory of inflation. Liu Fengyuan believes that the snowstorm will further worsen the inflation situation.
Ma Jun also believes that snowstorms will aggravate inflation, and the government may adopt further macro-tightening policies in the future. He believes that the snowstorm will further increase the food price in 1 month and February, thus aggravating inflation; Increasing inflationary pressures, especially rising inflation expectations, may prompt the government to further adopt macro-tightening policies, and China's economic growth may be damaged.