My experience is that the essence of futures is the confrontation between long and short sides. When the two sides are evenly matched, they are in a state of balance; When the power of a certain party breaks out, it will be beneficial to the continuous operation of that party and then form a breakthrough. To sum up, two words: multi-air combat, balance and breakthrough.
Some people may ask, I understand both these two sentences, but how to effectively link them with future analysis operations? I'm trying to explain it by reasoning. Let's look at the concepts we mentioned above, multi-air combat, balance and breakthrough. This sentence seems simple, but it has actually told us that in the future technical research and systematic design, effectively distinguishing the confrontation between long and short sides is the basis of analysis and transaction development. Only by effectively distinguishing can we know when to use the tricks we have learned or learned from others, thus avoiding the confusion of ideas and transactions that only have tricks but are not used to them.
The most important thing in technical research is how to effectively identify the status of multiple shorts through technical analysis. It has been said that fundamental changes can also be used to judge the transformation of long and short forces. Yes, but this analysis method conflicts with your trading philosophy. Not to mention that it is difficult for us ordinary traders to grasp the fundamentals. If we look back at the above ideas, we will find that we help us analyze and trade through the reflection of the market. The price has integrated the fundamentals, technical aspects and the performance of all parties involved in the market and directly displayed it.
What do I want to explain in this passage? There are many ways to make a profit, but what method to learn or what method to learn must be based on your idea, so as to avoid you using this method for a while and that method for a while in the process of trading, you may make a profit temporarily, but in the long run, your trading is far from systematic, which lays a hidden danger for the instability of future trading. Is this alarmist? Imagine that when you form your own trading system, when the system prompts you to trade, other analytical methods based on your ideas will inevitably interfere with your ability to execute the prompts of the established trading system, leading to the uncertainty of trading.
For example, when the system requires you to stop loss, but because the fundamentals support your loss position, you are likely to give up the implementation of the system, considering the egoism that ordinary traders have. Since you are short-term, your focus should always be on identifying the state of the market and analyzing and operating accordingly.
market risk
As a high-risk industry, we must know where the risk comes from, so as to avoid and control the risk. Only by controlling risks can we finally achieve effective and stable profits. When it comes to risk, people usually think of market uncertainty, but this is only part of it. Below I will explain the composition of risk through loss analysis. To sum up briefly, there are three main reasons for the loss:
The technical aspects are as follows:
1, contrarian, unclear market attributes, intraday trading, resulting in repeated stop loss, rough trading system, unclear signal instructions, and vacillating in opening, holding and closing positions, resulting in low profitability;
2. Heavy positions in fund management, especially overnight and overdraft transactions;
3, psychological gambling, luck, self-interest, greed and can not always carry out familiar trading ideas. Summary of risk composition: contrarian, heavy position, sudden turning point, rough technology, low profit, gambling psychology and lack of discipline in trading.
Characteristics of market fluctuation
Speaking of the understanding of the futures market, the price fluctuation mentioned above is essentially a contest between bulls and bears. When the power is balanced, the price fluctuates within a range; When one side breaks out, it will produce a breakthrough market. Therefore, the basic characteristics of price fluctuation are: equilibrium market (interval fluctuation)+breakthrough market (trend market).
In these two States, all the market changes, break through after balance, then enter balance and break through again. Attention: Minghui Futures Training Network, learn more financial knowledge. In addition, these two States exist in any cycle, but the difference is that the balance with a large cycle can produce a large-scale breakthrough, while the balance with a small cycle can only produce a small-scale breakthrough.
When we see the breakthrough after the big balance, we can understand that we have great expectations for the follow-up market, and the trading strategy is naturally biased towards intraday bands or bands, rather than full (ultra) short-term. Many people have a clear direction and don't make money. This is the root cause, that is, the market attributes and trading strategies do not match. After a small period of balance, the market level supported by nature will not be very high.
At this time, you will ask, how to effectively combine the balance and breakthrough of the two levels? Simply mentioned here, the method is * * * vibration. That is, after the balance of the big cycle is broken, at this time, if it is a small cycle, there will be a breakthrough after the balance, which indicates that the big breakthrough will continue in the short term. On the other hand, there is a breakthrough after the small cycle is balanced, but the big cycle is still in a balanced city, which can only support general short-term operations.
The big cycle determines the market attributes, and the small cycle looks for the breakthrough point. Without the cooperation of large period, the space above or below the breakthrough of small period can not be guaranteed. The characteristics of equilibrium market, namely interval fluctuation, are: N-fold arrangement patterns with equal (low) points often appear, such as M-head, triple bottom, platform, rectangular box and so on. The fluctuation characteristics determine how we participate in such a market. The preliminary conclusion is: using the pattern, relying on stop loss for high throwing and low sucking.
If it is wide, there will be a local small trend, homeopathic trading should be within the range, and the price space has not yet been opened, so: follow the local potential+short-term; Breakthrough market is a trend market (also known as unilateral market), and the characteristics of fluctuation are: the trend market goes up, the low point moves up, and it keeps hitting new highs; Downward trend market, high point moving down, low innovation. Similarly, after discovering the fluctuation characteristics of the breakthrough market, trading ideas and strategies have basically surfaced. Since the trend market presents the above characteristics, there are two ways to make a single order. One is the breakthrough of chasing up, and the other is that when the trend market has a retracement action, it throws high and sucks low.
Profit opportunities and trading strategies
Profit opportunities and trading strategies are large and small, some are universal, and some only happen under certain circumstances. Therefore, it is necessary to identify and classify the trading opportunities provided by the market, and finally design analysis and trading ideas in a targeted manner.
1. Main trading opportunity: Since it is a main trading opportunity, it must be: large market, long duration, relatively easy to distinguish, traders fully participate, and get obvious benefits. After the definition, the answer actually comes out, which is the main market segment in the trend market.
2. Secondary trading opportunities: Secondary trading opportunities mean that the scope is not very large, but the number of occurrences is obviously much more than the main trading opportunities. Traders accumulate profits by grasping the rhythm of fluctuations. Generally speaking, such trading opportunities exist in a wide range of shocks.
3. Trading opportunities for quick money: No matter what the market background is, diving and pulling up are always the fastest-making markets, and radical handicap is its basic performance. This is what short-term traders yearn for most, and it is also one of the focuses of future technology research.
4. Junk trading opportunities: Junk trading opportunities refer to small fluctuations and short duration. It mostly occurs in a narrow range of shock cities, which is the place where stop loss is most likely to occur continuously, and it is generally recommended to filter it out.
5. Risk trading opportunity: refers to the rebound or bo callback under unfavorable local conditions. There is a little room for fluctuation, but due to the local contrarian trend, if the technical foundation is not enough, we can't grasp its rhythm. One is that the points earned are not large, and the other is that it is easy to be swept away by another attack in the forward direction and forced to stop.
6. Skillful trading opportunities: Skillful trading opportunities are some non-mainstream and unusual quotations, which generally require traders to be experienced and grasp quickly. Not recommended for beginners. Attention: Minghui Futures Training Network. Learn more about finance and screen it out. For example, if the main contract rises (or dives), the contract responds slowly, and the contract is used to chase (make up for the decline).
In real transactions, short-term traders often make money, but they lose money inexplicably. How do they achieve long-term stable profits? Considering market fluctuation and trading opportunities together is very beneficial to the subsequent trading system design. The reason is that for different trading opportunities, the degree of analysis and systematization of transactions will be different, and the designed system will be more targeted, thus avoiding unknown so's losses.
Let's talk about the idea of making money. Normal traders hope to get rich quickly in a short time. On the one hand, this mentality will obviously interfere with trading, on the other hand, it also reflects that traders lack in-depth observation and summary of market fluctuations and trading opportunities. Because futures is a margin system, small fluctuations can also lead to large profits and losses, so most of the single-day market is dominated by shocks, and those trend (unilateral) markets occupy little time in the whole daily K-line chart.
This reminds us that in order to stabilize profits, we must be good at grasping the fluctuating market and pay attention to high success rate. If you want to make big money quickly, you must be able to effectively judge and participate in major trading opportunities in the market. Through the observation and research of many short-term experts, it is found that their profits have such characteristics:
A single profit may not be high, and the success rate of many transactions is high, which is the case in the general market through the accumulation of small profits; When there is a big breakthrough in the market, the simple short-term is mainly based on the combination of short-term and band, and pay attention to the grasp of rhythm. Although there are loopholes, the overall profit is improved because of the increase in band transactions.
* * * A master in the market.
Understanding the essence of master's profit is very valuable for subsequent design analysis, systematization of trading, and formulation of trading rules and disciplines. The main profits * * * are:
1. Systematic analysis and trading;
2. Make full use of and implement the trading system to form a stable profit model;
3. Fully prepare and summarize the transaction, plan your transaction and trade your plan;
4. There are clear trading rules and disciplines, which are fully and strictly observed;
5. Adequate and effective risk control measures;
6, psychological stability, clear their own shortcomings.
Key points of technical research
You must have an understanding in your heart that it is difficult to do futures, but the technology used by those experts is quite simple. In particular, they systematize the simple technology, that is, the analysis ideas are clear, and the advance and retreat are well-founded. With the stable psychological support, simple technology will eventually play a huge role. Judging the attributes of the market is the basis of subsequent analysis and trading. As we mentioned many times above, there are two types of market attributes: balanced market and breakthrough market, and the corresponding technical research points are as follows:
Balanced city (interval fluctuation):
1, balancing the judgment of the city;
2. Arrangement forms, such as boxes, platforms, triangles, flags, etc. introduced in reference books;
3. Support and resistance in the form of support resistance, and support resistance in the operation of price wave;
4. Grasp the inflection point;
5. Local homeopathy;
6. Radical markets in volatile markets.
Break through the market (trend market):
1, judgment of trend market, technical breakthrough+forward position;
2, the main up (down) tracking, mainly with multi-cycle * * * vibration;
3. Grasp the inflection point and throw it forward;
4. diving in the trend market.
Overview of trading system and framework design;
1, futures is a long-short fight, who helps who;
2. Follow the trend instead of subjective prediction;
4. The market will always be in two States, either equilibrium or breakthrough (small balance in small cycle supports small breakthrough, and balance in large cycle supports big breakthrough);
5. There are trading opportunities every day, but it is necessary to know which participation is of high value, otherwise it will be filtered out, which can effectively worry about risks;
6. Be a familiar and sure market, do not understand, and be good at two varieties;
7, stable profit, resulting in a rich mentality without a good end;
8. Success: systematic analysis and trading, sufficient risk control, strict implementation of trading system, and psychological stability;
9. Key points of technical research: design corresponding trading modes according to different attributes of the market;
10, fund management: heavy positions must be made (1+ 1 or 1), and light positions are not necessarily made or not made.