On March 7 and 8, 2022, LME Nickel forcibly opened its position, and the nickel futures price soared rarely, reaching the historical extreme value, which caused widespread concern in the market. This paper mainly focuses on the change of supply and demand pattern of nickel market, global nickel market supply, China nickel market supply, global nickel market demand and industry prospect, and sorts out the global nickel industry pattern.
I. Changes of supply and demand pattern in nickel market
With the constant change of technology and policy, the supply and demand pattern of nickel also changes.
Nickel Sulfide-electrolytic nickel-Stainless Steel Period (before 2006):
The global nickel supply mainly comes from nickel sulfide ore with limited reserves, which has high nickel grade and high process cost. However, the global demand for stainless steel is increasing, and the demand for nickel is also expanding. The supply can't meet the demand growth, and LME nickel inventory has been at a low level for a long time, pushing the nickel price to continue to rise.
Laterite nickel ore-ferronickel-stainless steel period (2007-2016);
In 2006, the production process of laterite nickel ore-ferronickel appeared in China. Laterite-nickel ore with high reserves but low grade has gradually become the main source of nickel, ferronickel has begun to play a leading role in stainless steel production, the demand in electrolytic nickel has dropped significantly, and the price of nickel has started to decline in the past 65,438+00 years. At the beginning of 20 14, Indonesia announced a ban on the export of nickel ore in order to increase the added value of domestic ore smelting. The entry into force of this ban has affected the supply and demand pattern of nickel. The price of nickel rose briefly, but it is still in a downward trend. During this period, LME nickel inventory once rose to a high of 450 thousand tons.
Laterite nickel ore-nickel intermediate (or high matte nickel)-nickel sulfate-ternary battery period (20 17 to present);
On the supply side, although 20 17 resumed the export of nickel ore with a grade below10.5%, 20 19 released the news that the export of nickel ore would be banned in 2020. These two mine bans have caused strong interference to the supply of nickel resources and intensified the fluctuation of international nickel prices. On the demand side, since 20 17, the pace of development of new energy vehicles in the world is getting faster and faster. The demand for ternary batteries with nickel sulfate as the main raw material increased rapidly, which led to the increase of nickel price and the continuous decline of LME nickel inventory to a low level.
On February 9, 2002 1 and1,the first high-grade nickel matte production line was officially put into operation in Qingshan Park, Indonesia. On June 24, 2022, the first ship of high-grade nickel matte arrived in China, which opened the industrial route from pyrometallurgical process of laterite nickel ore to nickel sulfate, which will greatly alleviate the structural shortage of nickel raw materials caused by the rapid expansion of battery materials projects, and the nickel price will be new.
Chart 1: LME nickel price trend
Source: Wind Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Chart 2: LME nickel inventory
Source: Wind Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Chart 3: Primary Nickel Industry Chain
Source: Wind Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Second, the global nickel market supply
(1) Nickel mine: The global nickel reserves and output are relatively concentrated.
According to the data released by the US Geological Survey (USGS), the global nickel reserves will be about 94 million tons in 2020, which will remain unchanged year-on-year. 60% of the world's nickel ore reserves exist in the form of laterite nickel ore, and laterite nickel ore gradually replaced the demand of nickel sulfide ore in stainless steel field until 2007.
In recent years, the output of laterite nickel ore has increased rapidly. It is estimated that laterite nickel ore will account for nearly 70% of the global nickel ore supply structure in 20 19. Nickel sulfide deposits are distributed in western Australia, South Africa, Canada and Russia. Laterite nickel deposits are mainly distributed in Australia, Indonesia, New Caledonia and the Philippines.
According to USGS statistics, in 20021year, the global nickel mine output reached 2.7 million tons, an increase of 8% compared with 2020 (25 1 10,000 tons). Indonesia's nickel output reached 6,543,800 tons, making it the undisputed nickel producer again, followed by the Philippines (370,000 tons), Russia (250,000 tons), Caledonia (6,543,800 tons) and Australia (6,543,800 tons). At the beginning of 2020, Indonesia once again banned mining, and the global supply of nickel resources began to gradually tighten. 202 1 With the construction and commissioning of a large number of nickel stainless steel and new energy projects in Indonesia, the output of nickel ore has increased substantially.
Chart 4: Distribution and proportion of global nickel ore reserves in 2020
Chart 5: Distribution ratio of global nickel mine production in 20021year
Source: Guangzhou Futures Research Center of US Geological Survey.
Figure 6: Metal output of major nickel producing countries in the world (10,000 tons)
Source: Guangzhou Futures Research Center of US Geological Survey.
Chart 7: Indonesian Nickel Mine Trade Policy
Source: Guangzhou Futures Research Center of US Geological Survey.
(2) Ferronickel: Indonesia continues to release production capacity, and the supply of ferronickel is relatively abundant.
Ferronickel, mainly composed of Ni and Fe, is a massive or granular gray-black mineral, and its fresh surface will have metallic luster. In terms of nickel content, the nickel content higher than 15% is ferronickel/feni;
Nickel pig iron (NPI) with nickel content below 15% can be divided into low, medium and high nickel pig iron, and the corresponding nickel content is 1.5%- 1.8%, 4%-8% and 8%- 15%.
According to mysteel data, in 20021year, 63% of the global primary nickel production was ferronickel, 30% was pure nickel, and other nickel products only accounted for 7%, while 78% of ferronickel production was nickel pig iron and 22% was water-quenched nickel. In China market, water-quenched nickel and nickel pig iron are usually called "ferronickel".
The principle of ferronickel smelting is to produce nickel oxide ore with blast furnace (BF) or rotary kiln-electric furnace (RKEF). Nickel pig iron has different smelting methods according to different grades:
The smelting method of low-nickel pig iron is blast furnace smelting (BF), and the technological process of producing ferronickel in blast furnace mainly includes: ore drying and screening (massive crushing)-batching-sintering-adding coke and flux (Shi Ying) to sinter in blast furnace smelting-ferronickel ingot and slag water quenching-producing ferronickel ingot and slag water quenching.
The main smelting method of medium and high nickel pig iron is rotary kiln-electric furnace smelting. The RKEF process includes ore batching, rotary kiln drying, rotary kiln roasting, crude ferronickel furnace smelting, LF furnace refining (or mechanical stirring desulfurization), and refined ferronickel water quenching to produce qualified ferronickel particles.
In 2020, Indonesian nickel pig iron production will surpass China and become the most important nickel supplier in the world. According to the investigation and statistics of Mysteel, as of 202 1 and 65438+February, the total number of nickel-iron bars produced in Indonesia was 135. In 20021year, the total output of ferronickel in Indonesia was about 890,000 tons of nickel metal, up 45.34% year-on-year. The output of medium-high nickel pig iron is about 850,000 tons, an increase of about 49% year-on-year; Low-nickel pig iron is about10.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 3%; Ferronickel is about 25,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 2%.
Indonesia is rich in nickel resources. In order to change the development mode of simply exporting metal resources and increase the added value of metal mineral products, Indonesia banned the export of nickel ore for the first time in 20 14. This policy forced enterprises, especially a large number of domestic smelters, to directly invest in the construction of ferronickel smelters in Indonesia, which led to the rapid expansion of NPI production capacity in Indonesia. In recent years, Indonesia's nickel metal industry is more inclined to develop smelting and processing. For Indonesia, foreign investment in local nickel smelters and deep processing of local nickel resources have improved the added value of products, which is also conducive to Indonesia's transformation of resource advantages into industrial advantages.
Chart 8: Indonesia's nickel pig iron output (in terms of metal quantity: 10,000 tons)
Source: Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Research Center
The new RKEF project in Indonesia has become a big increase in global nickel production and supply. Based on the expansion of existing production capacity and the continuous release of new production capacity, it is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of ferronickel production (including transformation) will remain above 20% in 2022 and 2023, and the peak production period will continue after 2024. It is estimated that in 2022, the output of nickel pig iron in Indonesia will further increase to 1 173 10000 tons, and the total (nickel pig iron+ferronickel) will be 12 10000 tons.
(3) Nickel sulfate: The explosion of new energy vehicles continues to drive the demand for nickel sulfate.
Nickel sulfate is mainly used in electroplating industry and battery industry, and it is the most important nickel raw material in ternary lithium battery industry chain. With the continuous development of new energy industry, the demand for nickel in ternary power battery broke out, which pushed up the rapid growth of nickel sulfate output.
Nickel sulfate enterprises use different production lines with different raw materials and different production processes, but the production process is relatively simple, with less investment, short construction period (2-6 months), rapid capacity expansion and timely demand response, and there is basically no capacity bottleneck problem.
In China, nickel sulfate is mainly produced and sold, and the foreign trade volume is relatively small. At present, the production of nickel sulfate is mainly concentrated in downstream enterprises such as precursors, and enterprises produce it through imported raw materials. Due to the low technical requirements of nickel sulfate production and strong demand in the future, nickel smelting enterprises began to extend downstream to expand the capacity of nickel sulfate. Nickel sulfate producing areas in China mostly follow ternary precursor producing areas, mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Hunan, Hubei, Guangdong, Guangxi and Guizhou, with 202 1 accounting for 73% of the national total output.
Chart 9: Output of Nickel Sulfate in China (in terms of metal)
Source: Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Nickel sulfate has a wide range of raw materials, including wet intermediate MHP, electrolytic nickel (nickel beans/nickel powder), recycled nickel and high matte nickel. In 20021year, the raw materials of nickel sulfate in China accounted for 43.65% of nickel beans and nickel powder, 33.25% of raw materials of nickel intermediates (containing high matte nickel), and 17. 19% of recycled raw materials.
(4) Refined nickel: The inventory has been continuously decontaminated for nearly two years.
Refined nickel can be divided into: nickel plate, nickel bean, nickel cake/nickel flower/nickel button, nickel bead/nickel ball, etc. Because of its high purity and low impurity content, refined nickel is widely used, involving stainless steel, new energy, superalloy, electroplating and other industries, and plays an important role in the supply of nickel raw materials.
The total production capacity of refined nickel in the world is100 ~ 65438+200,000 tons/year. However, in recent years, due to the decline in the proportion of refined nickel used in the stainless steel field, the market demand has shown a downward trend, and the output has also dropped significantly. In 20021year, the global total output of refined nickel was only 786,800 tons, which was lower than 800,000 tons for the first time in recent years. The main reason is that natural disasters or man-made accidents have occurred in several major refined nickel producing countries, resulting in large-scale production reduction.
Most refined nickel products in Russia are nickel plates, which are mainly used for stainless steel smelting. China, Norway, Japan, Finland, South Africa, France and other countries also produce nickel plates. Nickel plates in Finland and South Africa are generally used for stainless steel smelting, while nickel plates produced in Norway, Japan and France are mainly used in electroplating industry. In 20021year, the global nickel plate output was 508,900 tons, accounting for 64.68%.
Australia and Madagascar are the main producers of nickel beans, and some factories in Finland and Canada also produce nickel beans. Nickel beans are mainly used in new energy industry, and the preparation of nickel sulfate by autolysis of nickel beans has good economy. 202 1 the new energy industry is booming, and the demand for nickel beans is increasing greatly.
In 20021year, the global total output of nickel beans was 195400 tons, accounting for 24.83%.
Canada and Britain mainly produce refined nickel in the form of nickel cakes (nickel buttons/nickel flowers) and nickel beads, which are mainly used in alloy smelting and electroplating industries. In 202 1 year, the global output was 82,500 tons, accounting for 10.49%.
Chart 10:202 1 Downstream Market Share of Refined Nickel in China
Chart11:National refined nickel output distribution in 2021year
Source: Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Chart 12: LME nickel inventory
Source: Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Research Center
The demand for refined nickel in the emerging new energy industry is increasing day by day, mainly reflected in the useless nickel beans in the past. Nickel bean has become the most important raw material for preparing nickel sulfate because of its excellent economy. In 20021year, the consumption of nickel beans in the new energy field was11.9 million tons, accounting for 43.83% of nickel sulfate raw materials. LME nickel inventory began to decline rapidly in May 20021year, which became the main driving factor of LME nickel "epic" short-selling market in early March 2022.
LME delivery category only includes nickel plates and nickel beans, while China delivery category only includes nickel plates. Indonesia, the main producer of nickel, has no brands to choose from. Some enterprises in China are in the forefront in nickel production, but only produce secondary nickel such as ferronickel and high matte nickel, and do not produce nickel plates and nickel beans for futures delivery, nor do they have delivery brands registered in LME. In recent ten years, among all kinds of primary nickel products, the output of primary nickel products such as Nidou and electrolytic nickel has stagnated or even shrunk, and the increase of global primary nickel products mainly comes from nickel pig iron.
The products of Russian Norilsk Nickel Company are important commodities in LME market. The output of nickel ore in Norilsk Nickel Industry in Russia is 6.5438+0.7 million tons, which is the largest nickel ore producer in the world, accounting for 5.8% of the global total. All products are LME warehouse delivery brands.
Chart 13: Russian express brands account for a large proportion in LME.
Source: LME Guangzhou Futures Research Center
202 1, 65438+ The first high-grade nickel matte production line was announced in Qingshan Park, Indonesia on February 9, and the first ship of high-grade nickel matte arrived in China on June 24, 2022, which opened up an industrial route for producing nickel sulfate by pyrometallurgical process of laterite nickel ore, which will greatly alleviate the structural shortage of nickel raw materials brought about by the rapid expansion of battery materials projects, and has important practical significance for the current development of new energy electric vehicle industry.
Third, China nickel market supply
(1) Nickel ore: mainly dependent on the Philippines, with obvious seasonal import rules.
Laterite nickel ore resources in China are relatively scarce, with small reserves, low grade and high mining cost. China is a big producer of stainless steel products. Laterite nickel ore is the main raw material of ferronickel, which is the main raw material of stainless steel. Therefore, China needs to import a large number of laterite nickel ore every year to develop the stainless steel industry.
20 14 after Indonesia restricted the export of nickel ore for the first time, the Philippines became the core source country of nickel ore imported from China, and its nickel ore exports to China accounted for more than 80% of the total nickel ore exports in China. In 20021year, China imported 43,529,200 tons of nickel ore, up1/0.3% year-on-year, of which 39,043110,000 tons were imported from the Philippines, up 22 1 1% year-on-year, accounting for imports.
From June 1 1 to March of the following year, the Philippines is in the rainy season, and the bad weather affects the progress of nickel mining and shipment, and its nickel export volume has obvious seasonality. China's imports of nickel ore from the Philippines usually peak at 5438+ 10 in September or June, and then continue to decline, reaching a low point in the first quarter.
Due to a large number of exports in recent years, the reserves and grade of nickel ore in the Philippines are declining, and the TAWI_TAWI area is already facing the pressure of resource depletion. From the fourth quarter of 20 19 to the first quarter of 2020, three mines in this area have been closed one after another. In addition, mines in other areas are also facing the problem of low-grade nickel ore.
In recent two years, high-grade nickel mines in the Philippines showed signs of exhaustion, most of which were medium-low grade nickel mines sent to China. According to the statistics of Mysteel, the average grade of nickel ore in the Philippines decreased from 1.5% to 1.2%- 1.4%. The reduction of nickel ore varieties in the furnace has reduced the content of nickel, iron and nickel in China, and at the same time, the cost has increased accordingly.
Chart 14: Import sources of nickel ore in China are classified by country.
Source: Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Chart 15: Seasonal trend of nickel ore import in China.
Source: Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Chart 16: Distribution Map of Nickel Ore Grade in Main Ports of China
Source: Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Research Center
(2) Ferronickel: The import mainly depends on Indonesia, and the policy uncertainty is still large.
The cost of ferronickel smelting in China is mainly composed of nickel ore cost, power cost, combustion-supporting materials cost and reducing agent cost, of which nickel ore cost is the highest, about 55%, followed by power cost, accounting for 23%. From the cost composition, we can easily see that the cost of ferronickel smelting in China is most affected by the cost of nickel ore and electricity. Ferronickel smelting is accompanied by high energy consumption and high carbon emission. According to the calculation, the total energy consumption per ton in the whole process of stainless steel smelting is about 1.99-2.32 tons of standard coal, in which the energy consumption per ton of ferronickel is about 1.06- 1.28 tons of standard coal, the energy consumption per ton of ferrochromium is about 0.92-0.98 tons of standard coal, and stainless steel is only 0.02-0.08 tons.
At present, clean energy power generation is obviously unstable, and a large number of wind power and photovoltaic power generation will have a certain impact on the power quality, power grid stability, reactive power and voltage control of the power grid, so it is difficult to apply it to ferronickel smelting, a project with huge power consumption. This means that it is difficult for domestic ferronickel to solve the problems of energy consumption and carbon emission in a short time, which has a huge impact on domestic ferronickel industry. Indonesian ferronickel benefits from the advantages of local nickel resources and power cost, and the smelting cost is much lower than that in China.
After Indonesian mining ban, the output of ferronickel in China has been low. In 2020, the output of ferronickel will be 5 1.27 million tons of nickel metal, down by 71.20 million tons of nickel metal (-1.2. 1.9%). Looking forward to the next few years, Philippine ore is still the main source of imported nickel ore in China, and the supply has not increased significantly.
Chart 17: Cost Composition of Ferronickel Smelting in China
Chart 18: Nickel pig iron output in various regions of China.
Source: Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Chart 19: Nickel pig iron output in China (nickel metal quantity: 10,000 tons)
Source: Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Since the ban on the export of nickel ore from Indonesia came into effect in June 5438+1October, 2020, China's imports of ferronickel from Indonesia have increased greatly, and Indonesia accounted for about 84% of China's imports of ferronickel in 20021year.
In the past two years, due to the interference of COVID-19 epidemic, the Indonesian ferronickel did not return sufficiently, which led to the continuous shortage of domestic ferronickel supply and pushed up the price of ferronickel to record highs. In 2022, SeptianHarioSeto, Deputy Minister of Ocean and Investment Affairs of Indonesia, said that the government may start to impose export tariffs on ferronickel and pig iron in 2022, and the later policy uncertainty may have a greater impact on the domestic supply of ferronickel and stainless steel.
Chart 20: Import of ferronickel from China.
Source: Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Research Center
(3) Refined nickel: The proportion of Russian nickel imports has declined, but it is still the main source country.
Domestic refined nickel supply is mainly distributed in Gansu Province. 202 1 electrolytic nickel output 147800 tons, accounting for 9 1.3% of the national total, followed by Xinjiang, 202 1 electrolytic nickel output 12099 tons, accounting for 7.5% of the national total.
On the import side, Russia has long been the main source country for China to import nickel plates. The main producer is Norilsk Nickel Company of Russia, which is the largest nickel producer in the world. According to the statistics of China Customs, in 2020, China imported 5 1800 tons of Russian nickel, accounting for 39.59% of the total annual imports, and the annual imports of 20 18 and 20 19 reached 82,500 tons and 88,900 tons respectively.
However, in 20021year, China's imports of Russian nickel plates dropped sharply, reaching 46 1 10,000 tons, accounting for 17.5% of the total imports of refined nickel, the lowest since 20 1 1 year, and the lowest proportion of imports. The reason is that Norilsk's production was reduced due to the mine flooding accident in February 20021year18.12%; In addition, the Russian government raised the export tax on nickel products from August 20265438 to February 2065438. Moreover, 202 1 imported nickel plates from Norway, Sumitomo and South Africa crowded out the domestic market, and the profit of Russian nickel imports declined, which hindered domestic traders from signing long orders with Russia. In 20021year, China imported nearly half of refined nickel from Australia, most of which was mainly nickel beans. Thanks to the rapid development of new energy vehicles in China, the demand for nickel beans surged.
Chart 2 1: China imports refined nickel from Russian.
Chart 22: Proportion of refined nickel imports of China countries in 20021year.
Source: Wind Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Fourth, the global nickel market demand.
Nickel downstream is mainly used in stainless steel, battery, electroplating, alloy and other fields, among which stainless steel is the largest application field, accounting for 70%. Because of the large consumption base of nickel, it will still be an important driving force for the growth of nickel demand in the future; Benefiting from the explosive growth in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, the demand for nickel for batteries has the fastest growth rate in the downstream demand of nickel, and its proportion in the total demand is expected to continue to increase.
Chart 23: Global Primary Nickel Consumption Structure
Source: CSSC Guangzhou Futures Research Center.
Chart 24: Concept of Primary Nickel
Source: Antaike Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Chart 25: Balance Sheet of Supply and Demand of Global Nickel Market
Source: Guangzhou Futures Research Center of China Special Steel Enterprise Association.
(1) The global stainless steel production has increased steadily, with China and Indonesian contributing the most to the growth.
In terms of global output, the global crude stainless steel output has increased steadily since 2009. In 20 18, the global crude stainless steel output exceeded 50 million tons to 50.73 million tons, an increase of 104% compared with 2009. Under the influence of global epidemic in 2020, it will still reach 50.892 million tons. According to the statistics of International Stainless Steel Organization /ISSF, the global crude stainless steel output reached 56.289 million tons in 20021year, an increase of about 65.438+00.6% compared with 50.89 million tons in 2020.
In recent years, the growth of global stainless steel crude steel production mainly contributes to China and Indonesia, while Indonesia is mainly 300 series. In other countries and regions, the output of Europe, America and Africa is relatively stable. The total output of stainless steel in Asian countries, Japan and South Korea is basically limited. Therefore, China has dominated the growth of global output in recent years. The output of China has been increasing steadily since 2009, reaching 100000 tons in 20 10, 20 million tons in 20 14 and 30 million to 32.45 million tons in 200210, accounting for 57.7% of the world.
Chart 26: Global Stainless Steel Crude Steel Production
Chart 27: In the future, the capacity of replacing stainless steel with plain carbon steel will still be the main way to expand the capacity of stainless steel in China.
Chart 28: Accelerated development of stainless steel in Indonesia
Source: Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Research Center
According to the structure of stainless steel output, 300 series stainless steel accounts for about 50% of China's total stainless steel output. Because of its high corrosion resistance, good ductility, relatively high tensile strength and excellent weldability, it is the most widely used stainless steel in China. The nickel content of mainstream varieties 304 and 3 16 is not less than 8%/ 10%, respectively, which contributes to the main demand of stainless steel for nickel.
Chart 29: Output of Stainless Steel Crude Steel in China.
Source: Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Research Center
(2) The high demand growth rate of nickel brought by new energy vehicles.
Considering the maturity of the industrial chain of new energy vehicles, the future planning of automobile enterprises and the support of policies, it is predicted that the global new energy vehicles will maintain rapid growth in the future, and the ternary power battery of new energy vehicles is expected to become the biggest growth point of nickel demand in the future, and the electrification of global vehicles will become the future development trend.
Globally, it is estimated that by 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach170,000; By 2030, the global sales of electric vehicles are expected to exceed 30 million. From the domestic point of view, by 2035, it is roughly estimated that there will be 6 to 8 times room for growth in the sales of new energy vehicles in China. According to the Technical Roadmap 2.0 for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles revised and compiled by China Automotive Engineering Society, the overall penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is planned to be 20% in 2025, 40% in 2030 and 50% in 2035.
Chart 30: Global demand forecast of ternary precursor and battery-grade nickel sulfate
Source: China Automobile Association GGII Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Chart 3 1: the output of new energy vehicles in China in the current month and the same period of last year.
Source: Wind Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Verb (abbreviation of verb) Future development trend of nickel industrial chain
(1) The concentration of stainless steel in China has been further improved.
Stainless steel industry has high policy barriers and technical barriers, relatively high entry threshold and relatively orderly competition. In 20021year, the domestic crude stainless steel output was 32.45 million tons, forming four clusters in Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi and Wuxi, Jiangsu. The top ten enterprises in the industry are Baowu Taigang, Qingshan, Beibu Gulf New Materials and Jiangsu Delong, with a share of 8 1%. With the centralized release of new steelmaking capacity in the future, the concentration of China's stainless steel industry is expected to further increase. In the future, a new pattern of stainless steel dominated by three giants, Qingshan, Baowu and Delong, will be formed, and its market share will continue to increase.
The oligopoly position of Qingshan Group will be gradually weakened, but it is still the absolute benchmark of stainless steel industry, especially its market dominant position, profitability and terminal direct selling ability.
Baowu Group builds the steel mill with the richest varieties and specifications of stainless steel in the world, seeks the low position of global stainless steel head enterprises, merges Taigang Group, expands its scale, and strives to optimize the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials and improve its competitiveness.
Delong Group focuses on the development of 300 series stainless steel, and gives full play to the production cost advantage of 300 series through the extension of upstream and downstream industrial chains and the rapid development of scale.
Chart 32: Output of Three Leading Companies
Source: Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Research Center
(2) The transformation from ferronickel to nickel matte has broken the original pattern of parallel supply and demand.
In recent two years, the increase of nickel supply mainly comes from the production of ferronickel for stainless steel, and the increase of demand mainly comes from stainless steel and lithium batteries. In the past, the supply and demand of nickel had two parallel routes: ferronickel-stainless steel/electrolytic nickel-nickel sulfate-battery. Therefore, in the early stage, the market expected that ferronickel would be put into production in large quantities, but the increase of nickel production for batteries was less than the demand, which would lead to the escape/shortage of nickel and the drastic discount of ferronickel to electrolytic nickel.
202 1 12 Qingshan announced that ferronickel was converted to high matte nickel, which broke the original pattern of supply and demand, and the supply of ferronickel exceeded demand-electrolytic nickel &; The premium of nickel sulfate to ferronickel increases-ferronickel is converted into high matte nickel to prepare nickel sulfate-electrolytic nickel's demand for nickel sulfate decreases-electrolytic nickel &; The premium of nickel sulfate to ferronickel is reduced to balance the prices of different forms of nickel products.
Under certain conditions, ferronickel can be transformed into high matte nickel, and there is a mutual restriction between different production lines. When the profit of converting high matte nickel is higher than the profit of selling ferronickel, that is, the price difference between nickel sulfate and ferronickel expands to cover the cost of ferronickel-high matte nickel sulfate, enterprises will have enough motivation to convert high matte nickel. If the supply of high nickel matte increases, it will change the supply and demand pattern of nickel market, and the change of supply and demand will affect the price of upstream raw materials, and the price difference between nickel sulfate and ferronickel will also change. Therefore, we should treat the economic problems of high matte nickel transformation dialectically.
In addition to the price difference between nickel sulfate and ferronickel, the profit level of ferronickel itself is the key factor. When ferronickel itself is in a state of high profit, even if the short-term price difference is enough to cover the cost of production conversion, the enthusiasm of enterprises for production conversion is not strong enough. In the future, as many ferronickel projects are put into production, and underwriting or joint operation contracts are signed with relevant new energy companies and stainless steel enterprises, the event of production conversion may be more visible, and high nickel matte will also serve as a link between the two markets, reflecting the marginal demand changes of new energy and stainless steel.
(3) Indonesia's industrial chain is more perfect.
1, Indonesia has excellent long-term resource endowment.