The domestic futures market is influenced by the external market in various and complicated ways, mainly as follows.
1, almost all futures products related to the external market are affected.
Throughout the domestic futures varieties, copper, aluminum and zinc in metals, natural rubber and fuel oil in materials and energy, soybean oil, palm oil and vegetable oil, wheat, corn, soybean and soybean meal, gold in precious metals and other similar or related varieties with international futures are all unaffected. For example, metals and precious metals are mainly affected by the London Futures Market (LME) price, and most of the time they are affected by the LME market price. Agricultural products, edible oil and energy varieties are mainly affected by the CBOT market price in the United States. Natural rubber is deeply influenced by Tokyo rubber futures price, while palm oil is influenced by Southeast Asian market and related oil market.
2. Both the price of the previous day and the immediate price have an impact.
The previous day's price refers to the closing price of the external market on the previous day, that is, the closing price of the external market on the day before the domestic transaction. Real-time price refers to the real-time price of external electronic disk or the real-time price in a time period that coincides with domestic trading time.
The fluctuation of the closing price of the external market the day before yesterday had the greatest impact on the domestic price and the domestic futures trading results. In market practice, it often happens that the domestic futures price rises or falls too much the day before the external market, which leads to a sharp opening or a sharp opening, and sometimes the daily limit or the daily limit is closed at the opening. For example, if the LME copper price drops sharply the day before yesterday, the Shanghai copper market will continue to skip the daily limit. On the other hand, if the LME copper market rose sharply the day before yesterday, Shanghai Copper will continue to skip the daily limit, resulting in heavy losses and great risks for traders holding reverse positions.
The price change of real-time trading in the outer disk has prompted many domestic traders to follow suit, taking the foreign market price as the shadow, the outer disk green follows the green, and the outer disk red follows the red, and there is no own price at all. For example, when the price is relatively stable, the price can easily follow the real-time price of the outer disk. This kind of real-time price follows the trend, although it looks servile, but it is very convenient and risky.
3. The influence of different commodities and different markets is different
Different futures varieties have different influences on external prices, generally: 1), and the influence of mainstream prices on external prices is greater than that of non-mainstream prices. For example, LME copper price has more influence on Shanghai copper price than CMX copper price. 2) The influence of active varieties is greater than that of inactive varieties. For example, the influence of CBOT soybean price on soybean price is greater than that of new york natural oil price on Shanghai natural oil price.
4. The influence of different market periods.
The influence of external futures prices on domestic futures prices is different in different periods, generally speaking, it is very large, but the influence degree is weakened in some special periods. The main reason is that domestic fundamental factors have a strong influence in some periods. For example, due to the long-term appreciation of the renminbi, foreign commodity prices have soared since last year, while domestic commodity prices have risen relatively moderately. For another example, the prosperity of China's textile industry has declined since last year. Although American cotton prices have risen sharply, China cotton futures prices have stagnated.
5. The main factors affecting the price of the outer disk.
The influence of external prices on domestic futures prices mainly has two aspects. First, foreign futures markets are developed and mature, and some of them have become world trading centers and pricing centers. For example, LME market has become the world's metal futures trading center and pricing center, CBOT market in the United States has become the world's agricultural futures trading center and pricing center, and new york market has become the world's energy futures trading center and pricing center. The trading of rubber in Tokyo also plays an important role and has an important impact on the world's rubber prices. Therefore, before the China futures market has reached the stage of rapid development and won the position of pricing power, the influence of external prices will be long-term and inevitable. Second, the development of domestic futures market is slow, the structure of market subject is unreasonable, there are no hedging subjects and market makers, and speculative funds are dominant in the futures market, so the market is speculative. It is customary to keep an eye on the external market that day, because this is the simplest and most effective way to build momentum for the transaction that day. In fact, when the domestic market is not qualified for pricing power, it is logical to follow the price of the external market.
Second, methods and trading strategies to reduce the impact of external market fluctuations.
As mentioned above, the impact of external futures prices on domestic futures prices is objective and long-term, but the question is what methods and strategies should be adopted to reduce this impact.
1, we must study the price of the outer disk in depth.
Practice has proved that in domestic futures trading, it is necessary to deeply study the price trend of the external market and make a trading plan in combination with domestic price analysis. Only in this way can we grasp the direction of overnight trading and avoid investment risks. For example, if you hold a short-term long position in soybeans on a certain day, you should study the price trend of CBOT soybeans on that day before closing. If CBOT is bullish, you can hold positions overnight, otherwise you must close your positions before closing them, or you will face risks.
2. Choose the right trading strategy.
In fact, adopting appropriate trading strategies can also reduce the impact of external price fluctuations on domestic transactions. Practice has proved that the external market has different influences on three different trading strategies: daytime short-term trading, overnight short-term trading and mid-line homeopathic trading. 1), short-term trading strategy during the day. Although the real-time price of the external market has an impact on the domestic market price, because the market price at this time is real-time, investors can deal with risks immediately, so the impact of the external market does not constitute a big risk, and the impact on investors' transactions is limited.
2), overnight short-term trading strategy. The biggest risk of overnight short-term trading is the uncertainty of the external market the next day. Overnight short-term trading generally has a large position and generally does not emphasize the price trend. Therefore, when investors hold a large number of short-term overnight positions, if the external market price fluctuates greatly the next day, which is contrary to the investors' positions, they will suffer huge losses. 3) Mid-line homeopathic trading strategy. This strategy was put into trading after the medium-term market trend was established. Generally, positions are held in strict accordance with the plan, and the stop loss is planned and can withstand a certain degree of market oscillation. Although it will also be affected by the uncertain risk of the overnight market, this investment strategy is well prepared. As long as the market direction is not reversed and short-term risks are transmitted, the risks will be resolved, so the transaction result is ultimately less affected by the risk of price fluctuation in the external market.
To sum up, in order to prevent and reduce the impact of external price fluctuations on domestic futures trading, on the one hand, investors must study the external price and grasp the trend of the external market while studying the domestic market; On the other hand, we should choose the right trading strategy. Intra-day short-term trading strategy and mid-line homeopathic trading strategy are less affected by the external market, while overnight short-term operation strategy is most affected by the risk of price fluctuation in the external market.