Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

That is, Gross Domestic Product, English name gross domestic product, usually abbreviated as GDP. This indicator is the most concerned economic statistical data in macroeconomics, because it is considered as the most important indicator to measure the development of national economy.

The faster the GDP growth rate, the faster the national economic development, the slower the growth rate and the slower the national economic development. If GDP falls into negative growth, the country will undoubtedly fall into economic recession.

The publication of GDP in western countries is usually divided into monthly publication and quarterly publication, of which quarterly GDP data is the most important. Investors should examine the results of comparing the GDP of this quarter with the data of last quarter and the same period of last year, and it can be regarded as good to increase or exceed the expected growth rate.

Economic leading indicators

Leading indicators, also known as leading indicators or leading indicators, are one of the most important economic indicators to predict the future economic development, and are the weighted average of various economic variables that guide the economic cycle.

The leading index consists of many elements, involving many aspects of the national economy. Take the American leading index as an example, which mainly includes the following elements:

1 Average weekly workload of manufacturing industry.

Average number of people applying for unemployment benefits per week.

Manufacturers increase orders for consumer goods and raw materials.

4 Seller's delivery performance-the percentage of delayed delivery in its factory.

5. Contracts and orders for factories and equipment.

6. Private investment in new building permits.

7 M2 money supply.

8 Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index and Dividend Income.

9 Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.

10 the difference between the production cost and the selling price.

If most of these factors are positive, the leading index can be expected to rise ahead of schedule.

retail

Retail sales is actually a statistical summary of retail sales, including the total value of goods sold by all shops mainly engaged in retail business in cash or credit. Expenses incurred in the service industry are not included in the retail sales.

The increase of a country's retail sales means that the country's consumption expenditure increases, the economic situation improves, and interest rates may be raised, which is beneficial to the country's currency. On the contrary, if the retail sales decline, it means that the economy is slowing down or not, and interest rates may be lowered, which is not good for the country's currency.

Consumer price index

Consumer price index, abbreviated as CPI in English, is an indicator reflecting the price changes of products and services related to residents' lives, and is usually used as an important indicator to observe the level of inflation.

The consumer price index has risen too much, and there is inflationary pressure. At this time, the central bank may control it by raising interest rates, which is beneficial to a country's currency. However, if the consumer price index rises too much, it shows that inflation has become a factor of economic instability, and the central bank will have the risk of tightening monetary and fiscal policies, which will lead to uncertain economic prospects. Therefore, an excessive increase in the index is not welcomed by the market.

Building permit for a new house.

Building indicators generally occupy an important position in the data system published by various countries, because the real estate industry occupies an important position in the modern economy, and the economic prosperity of a country is often reflected in the building indicators. Generally speaking, the increase of new housing starts and construction permits is theoretically a positive factor for the country's currency, which will promote the country's currency to strengthen, while the decline or lower than expected of new housing starts and construction permits will put pressure on the country's currency.

financial deficit

Finance, that is, government revenue and expenditure. At the beginning of each fiscal year, the government always makes a budget plan for that year. If the actual implementation leads to income exceeding expenditure, it is a fiscal surplus, and expenditure exceeding income is a fiscal deficit. If a country's fiscal deficit increases, its currency will fall. On the contrary, if the fiscal deficit is reduced, it means that its economy is good and its currency will appreciate.

current deposit account

The current account is the main item in a country's balance sheet, which records the capital outflow and inflow between a country and foreign countries, including the import and export of goods and services, investment income, income from other goods and services and other factors. Generally speaking, if a country's current account deficit (negative) expands, its currency will depreciate, its surplus (positive) will expand and its currency will appreciate.

producer price index

Producer price index, abbreviated as PPI in English, is mainly used to measure the price changes of various commodities at different production stages. Like the consumer price index, it is usually regarded as an important indicator to observe the level of inflation. Generally speaking, when the producer price index rises sharply and continues to accelerate, the corresponding response of the country's central bank is to raise interest rates to prevent inflation from rising rapidly, so the possibility of currency appreciation in the country increases; or vice versa, Dallas to the auditorium

rate of capacity utilization

Capacity utilization rate, also called equipment utilization rate, is the ratio of total industrial output to production equipment. A simple understanding is how much actual production capacity plays a productive role in the operation. When the capacity utilization rate exceeds 95%, it means that the equipment utilization rate is close to the whole. When the capacity cannot cope, the pressure of inflation will rise rapidly, which is beneficial to a country's currency when the market expects interest rates to rise. On the other hand, if the capacity utilization rate is below 90% and continues to decline, it means that the equipment is idle too much and the economy is in recession, which will be bad for the country's currency when the market expects interest rates to fall.

Durable goods order

Durable goods orders represent the quantity of non-perishable goods ordered next month, reflecting manufacturing activities. As the name implies, an order generally refers to a commodity transaction that is intended to be purchased and expected to be delivered immediately or in the future. If the data increases, it shows that the manufacturing situation has improved, which is beneficial to the country's currency. On the other hand, if it is reduced, it means that the manufacturing industry is shrinking, which is not good for the country's currency.

Average hourly wage

Average hourly wage is the wage and salary level of private non-agricultural workers measured by average hourly wage and weekly wage. Generally speaking, if the average hourly wage is expected to lead to an increase in interest rates, the rapid increase in hourly wages will have a positive stimulus to the country's currency, and vice versa.

Purchasing managers index

Purchasing management index is an index to measure eight areas of manufacturing industry: output, new orders, commodity prices, inventory, employees, order delivery, new export orders and imports. Purchasing managers' index is expressed as a percentage, and 50% is often used as the dividing point of economic strength: that is, when the index is higher than 50%, it is interpreted as a signal of economic expansion. When the index is below 50%, especially very close to 40%, there is a fear of economic depression. It is a very important auxiliary indicator among leading indicators.

Employment report

Non-agricultural data refers to non-agricultural employment.

Employment reports, including employment-related information, are obtained through two independent surveys, namely, enterprise surveys and household surveys.

Among them, the enterprise survey provides the employment situation, average hourly work and total hourly index of non-agricultural sectors; Household surveys provide information about the labor force, household employment and unemployment rate. Non-agricultural employment measures the number of people with income in all non-agricultural industries (such as manufacturing and service industries).

Among all the economic indicators that the foreign exchange market can respond to, the employment report is usually regarded as "the jewel in the crown". It is the most sensitive monthly economic indicator in the market, and investors can usually see a lot of market sensitive information from it, among which the foreign exchange market pays special attention to the change of seasonally adjusted monthly employment. For example, a strong non-farm employment situation indicates a healthy economic situation, and may indicate a higher interest rate. The potential high interest rate encourages the foreign exchange market to push the value of the country's currency more, and vice versa.

IFO prosperity index

IFO business climate index (IFO business climate index) is compiled by IFO Institute in Germany, which is an important leading indicator to observe the economic situation in Germany. IFO is the English abbreviation of the registration association of the German Institute of Economic Information.

IFO's economic prosperity index is compiled by conducting a monthly survey of various industrial sectors, including manufacturing, construction and retail, and the number of entrepreneurs covered by each survey exceeds 7,000. The index is compiled according to the current situation of enterprises, short-term plans and views on the next six months.

IFO's economic prosperity index publishes information every month to investigate enterprises' views on the future, covering a wide range of departments, so it has high reference value in forecasting economic trends.

ISM index

ISM index is an important data published by the institute for supply management, which has an important influence on reflecting the economic prosperity of the United States and the trend of the US dollar.

ISM index is divided into manufacturing index and non-manufacturing index.

ISM Supply Management Association Manufacturing Index consists of a series of sub-indices, among which Purchasing Managers Index is the most representative. The index is a barometer reflecting the comprehensive development of manufacturing industry in terms of production, orders, prices, employees and delivery. Usually, 50 is the critical point. Above 50 means that the manufacturing industry is expanding, while below 50 means that the manufacturing industry is shrinking, which affects the pace of economic growth.

ISM Supply Management Association's non-manufacturing index reflects the prosperity of non-manufacturing business activities in the United States. When its value is higher than 50 continuously, it indicates that non-manufacturing activities are expanding and prices are rising, which often indicates that the overall economy is expanding. On the contrary, when its value is continuously lower than 50, it often indicates that the overall economy is in a state of contraction.

auto/automobile/car sales

Automobile sales are an important part of consumer spending, which can well reflect consumers' confidence in economic prospects.

If car sales increase, it generally indicates that the country's economy will improve, consumers' willingness to spend will increase, which is beneficial to the country's currency, and may be accompanied by the rise of the country's interest rate, which will stimulate the country's currency exchange rate to rise.

Consumer goods credit loan

Consumer credit, including family loans repaid within two months or more for the purchase of goods and services.

The foreign exchange market pays attention to the net credit balance before the quarter. Generally speaking, the increase of consumer credit balance indicates the increase of consumer expenditure and optimism about the economy, which usually occurs during the period of economic expansion, while the decrease of credit balance indicates the decrease of consumer expenditure, which may be accompanied by pessimism about future economic activities.

Generally speaking, if the balance of consumer credit does not fluctuate greatly, the response of the foreign exchange market to this data is not strong. At the same time, the balance of consumer credit can not be interpreted in isolation, but should be comprehensively investigated in combination with other data.

money supply

That is, the money stock is the sum of a country's means of circulation and payment at a certain point in time, which is generally manifested in the deposits of financial institutions, cash in circulation and other liabilities, that is, the financial assets of financial institutions and enterprises, residents, institutions, groups and other economic entities other than the government. The quantity and liquidity of money supply is the monetary expression of the change of total social demand, one of the main economic statistical indicators in various countries, and also an important basis for the central bank to implement monetary policy.

Most economists believe that money should be defined according to its basic functions, so the money supply should include all credit instruments that perform its main functions. However, in real life, it is difficult to accurately distinguish whether credit instruments are strictly monetary, and there is no obvious boundary between monetary and non-monetary. Therefore, at present, most economists advocate defining and classifying money according to the liquidity of financial assets and determining different intervals of money supply. The so-called liquidity of financial assets refers to the ability of financial assets to be quickly converted into cash without causing losses to holders, that is, the ability to become a realistic means of circulation and payment, also known as liquidity. Financial assets with different liquidity have different effects on commodity circulation and other economic activities, so they have different degrees of currency.

According to the different liquidity of financial assets, money can be divided into the following levels:

M 1= currency+demand deposit in the banking system.

This is the money supply in a narrow sense. However, savings deposits and time deposits in various financial systems, as well as treasury bonds and life insurance companies, can also be regarded as potential purchasing power and can be easily converted into cash, so they have different degrees of liquidity and can be included in the broad money supply. According to the different liquidity, broad money should be divided into the following levels:

M2=M 1+ time deposits and savings deposits of commercial banks

M3=M2+ time deposits and savings deposits of other financial institutions

M4=M3+ other short-term current assets (such as national debt and life insurance). )

Money is an important factor that causes economic changes. With the development of economy, the relationship between money and economy is increasingly close, and the change of money supply and demand has great influence on all aspects of people's economy. Therefore, adjusting the amount of money to meet the needs of economic development has become the main task of central banks in various countries. It can be seen that it is of great significance to divide the levels of money supply.

First, it is convenient for economic analysis. By observing the money supply index, we can analyze the fluctuation of the national economy.

Second, by investigating the influence of different levels of money on the economy, we can choose the monetary assets that are most closely related to economic changes as the focus of central bank regulation, which is conducive to the central bank's regulation of money supply and timely observation of the implementation effect of monetary policy.