Main recommendations
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: It is estimated that in 20 19, the annual tax reduction and fee reduction will be 2.36 trillion yuan, with manufacturing accounting for 70%.
China Automobile Association: In 20 19, the automobile sales in China decreased by 8.2% year-on-year.
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Market review
Market comment: the policy tone is getting warmer, and the spring market drought is expected to continue. In operation, selected stocks are actively operated in the band.
Macro view: supervision speaks! Promote pensions to increase the allocation of equity assets and tolerate appropriate risk exposure.
Brokerage industry: various reform policies in the capital market will continue to produce results, and the leading players in the brokerage industry will continue to benefit.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 349.56, down 0.03%; Copper 48930, up 0.04%; Rebar 3507, down1.07%; Rubber 13390, up by 2.53%; The PVC index was 6525, down 0.68%; Shanghai aluminum 13990, down 0.71%; Shanghai nickel 1 12960, up1.27%; Iron ore was 654.5, down 0.38%; Coke1844.0; Down1.81%; Coking coal 1208.5, down 0.12%; Brent oil was 62.22, down1.25%; 2,348 in Zheng Chun, up 4.92%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 6844, down 0.41%; Corn 19 18, up by 0.37%; Palm oil 6354, down 0.35%; Zheng Mian 14460, up by 0.94%; Sugar 5846, up1.39%; Apple 7309, down1.64%; Jujube 10460, up1.11%;
Exchange rate: EUR/USD, 1. 1 1, up by 0.14%; USD/RMB 6.89, down 0.37%; USD/HK$ 7.77, up 0.06%.
Second, the key recommendation
1, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: It is estimated that the annual tax reduction and fee reduction in 20 19 will be 2.36 trillion yuan, with manufacturing accounting for 70%.
Event: The person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said at the 20 19 annual meeting of China industrial economy that the business environment of enterprises was greatly improved on 20 19, and the tax reduction and fee reduction of manufacturing industry and small and medium-sized enterprises were obvious. It is estimated that tax reduction and fee reduction will be 2.36 trillion yuan in 20 19. Among them, the manufacturing industry and related links account for nearly 70% of the VAT tax reduction scale, and the inclusive tax reduction for small and micro enterprises is about 250 billion yuan. The development vitality of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises has been continuously enhanced. In 20 19, the debts owed to private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises exceeded 600 billion yuan, and more than half of the objectives and tasks set by the government work report were completed.
Comments: The implementation of large-scale tax reduction and fee reduction on 20 19 has effectively reduced the burden on enterprises and played a good role in boosting the profits of listed companies. As the profit growth rate picks up, the market valuation is expected to rise further.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
2. China Automobile Association: In 20 19, the automobile sales in China decreased by 8.2% year-on-year.
Event: According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the automobile sales in China in 20 19 was 25.769 million, down 8.2% year-on-year, among which the sales of new energy vehicles decreased 4% year-on-year; 2019 June, automobile sales decreased by 0. 1% year-on-year, among which, passenger car sales were 2210.3 million, down 0.9% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales were10.63 million, down 27.4% year-on-year.
Comments: The automobile industry is a typical cyclical industry, and its production and sales are greatly influenced by the economic cycle and industrial policies. In the past two years, the domestic auto market has declined significantly, which dragged down the stock price in the early stage. However, with the expectation of economic stabilization becoming clearer and clearer, the probability of industrial policy improvement increases, and the stock price is reflecting the changes in the industry in advance. It is expected that the stock prices of related companies will still have room for performance in the future.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
Third, the market review
Market comment: the policy tone is getting warmer, and the spring market drought is expected to continue. In operation, selected stocks are actively operated in the band.
On Monday, the three major stock indexes of A shares continued to fluctuate and rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.75%, regaining the integer mark of 3 100 and closing at 3 1 15.57. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47% to close at 1 1040.20; The GEM index rose 1.62% to close at 1935.07, a 33-month high since April 20 17. The total turnover of the two cities was 668 billion yuan, with TMT sectors such as electronics and semiconductors among the top gainers. Apart from the decline in leisure services and building materials, the general growth characteristics of the two cities were more obvious. From the perspective of capital flow, the net inflow of northbound funds on that day was 9.326 billion yuan, which was the net inflow for 39 consecutive trading days. With the continuous warming of the news and the continuous inflow of funds from the north, it is expected that the market will continue to be dry and cold in the spring, and selected stocks will operate in the active band, focusing on the industrial chain of semiconductors, communication equipment, securities, construction machinery and new energy vehicles. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious in investing.
(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)
Macro view: supervision speaks! Promote pensions to increase the allocation of equity assets and tolerate appropriate risk exposure.
Event: On June 65438+1October 1 1, at the first quarter summit of the Global Wealth Management Forum in 2020, the leaders of the Ministry of Finance, the Party and the two committees and other regulatory authorities made suggestions on building a multi-pillar old-age security system, promoting the benign interaction between pension investment and the capital market, and promoting the reform and development of the third pillar old-age security system.
Comments: High-level voices encourage pensions to increase the allocation of equity assets, which fully reflects the confidence of high-level care for the market. The news is good for injecting fresh water into the market, which will obviously bring confidence support to the long-term improvement of the market, and the overall news has a positive impact on the market.
(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)
Brokerage industry: various reform policies in the capital market will continue to produce results, and the leading players in the brokerage industry will continue to benefit.
With the continuous inflow of foreign capital and the adoption of the new Securities Law, the policies to promote capital market reform will continue to play an effective role, and the brokerage industry with high policy sensitivity and high beta will continue to benefit. At present, the industry valuation is at a low level, and the market downturn restricts performance. However, as one of the leading indicators of the market, it is expected that the market will benefit in stages, and it is recommended to pay attention to the industry leaders.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)