Some stocks will break through the upward trend and start the rising market after the EMA is bonded, and some stocks will fall sharply after the EMA is bonded and enter the downtrend channel. Judging the stock trend after the bonding of moving averages can generally start with the market trend, the relative position of individual stock prices, the performance of individual stock turnover rate and turnover rate.
The trend of the market is often the same as the trend of the stock price after the moving average is bonded. The trend of the broader market is one of the focuses of investment in the A-share market. Once the market situation is not good, stable stocks are also easily affected by the market trend, and the upward trend turns into a downward trend.
In the bull market with upward trend in the medium and long term and the bear market with downward moving average in the medium and long term, the phenomenon of moving average adhesion will occur. When the long-term market trend is upward, the later moving average diverges upward. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 998 points to 6 124 points. However, when the long-term trend is downward, the stock price will diverge downward after the moving averages are bonded. For example, 20 16, the index dropped from more than 5,000 points to around 2,600 points.
In the plunge environment, even if the fundamentals of individual stocks are excellent, it is impossible to avoid systemic risks and produce a decline.
According to the historical stock price of individual stocks, we can also judge the current stock price trend after the bonding of high and low moving averages from the historical position of stock prices. Low-level stocks have greater upward momentum, while high-level stocks have downside risks. Specifically, if the stock price is in a low position when the moving average is bonded, it is more likely to rise later because of the limited downside.
On the other hand, if the stock price is at a relatively high historical level, investors should be careful about the gradual shipment behavior of the main force in the process of moving average bonding, which may be the main shipment point.
Judging the stock market outlook trend by volume and turnover rate can better reflect whether the stock target is active or not than volume. If the trading volume increases steadily and the stock price rises gradually when the moving average is bonded, it is more likely to judge that the stock is sprinting upwards. If the trading volume is moderate and the EMA is bound, don't rush to sell. It may take a long time for the target to cross. Investors should pay close attention to the trend of the moving average and choose to ship when there are signs of downward deviation.
In addition, moving average bonding usually means that the stock price is running horizontally in stages. Whether it is a high decline or a low rise, the turnover rate of individual stocks will be relatively high in the horizontal range before directional selection. Only enough turnover can determine the trend after the breakthrough.
The adhesiveness of EMA reflects the average cost of investors. The performance of EMA can reflect the long-term trend of stocks, but the lag of short-term is also obvious. Therefore, when using EMA, it is necessary to comprehensively predict market indicators such as trading volume and turnover rate. With the help of policies and news, the accuracy will be higher.
Investors should always remember that it is the rise and fall of the stock price that causes the change of the moving average, not the change of the moving average. Therefore, when predicting the trend of the bonded EMA, the market trend and the basic situation of individual stocks are more important than other technical indicators.