At present, housing prices in the Pearl River Delta are generally lowered, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and insufficient market confidence. Will inflation devalue our money? Is it wrong to keep our money in the bank or hold it in hand? Investing in real estate to preserve value, but will house prices continue to fall? Will a big economic bubble burst? If it happens, how will the individual respond? I tried to do some analysis and sort out my thoughts. How did the economic bubble form and burst? 1. Formation of trade deficit-deficit of export decline caused by RMB appreciation and inflation. Second, the disaster caused by low interest rates-the banking system is flooded with liquidity, and a large number of cheap capital and hot money flock to the stock market and property market, which leads to the skyrocketing stock and property prices, which leads to the precarious financial system. 3. How did Japan's economic bubble burst at the end of 198s?-On the premise of the above two conditions, and under the pressure of twin deficits, the currency was obviously overvalued. International currencies shorted Japanese stock index futures, international currencies bought down, and a large number of stock index options were shorted. The collapse of the stock market first affected the banking, real estate and insurance industries, and finally the manufacturing industry, which would find it more difficult to raise funds. Finally, the yen depreciated sharply against the dollar, and the country's core assets were sold at a low price. Therefore, all the signs in 27 indicate the formation of China's economic bubble. But up to now, the bubble has not burst, because the China government has taken two important measures: First, tighten monetary policy and reduce currency liquidity. Second, raise interest rates. As a result, the overheated investment fever was cooled down and returned to rationality before the bubble burst, and the bubble did not burst. If the bubble bursts, the stock market, banking and real estate will collapse at the boiling point, the RMB will depreciate seriously against the US dollar, and the core assets of the country will be sold at a low price. Fortunately, China stopped the car in time before it reached the boiling point. Let's review the beautiful natural circulation and control system in the economic law: deficit countries are bound to lose real national wealth, thus reducing the credit capacity of the banking system, automatically leading to austerity and recession, shrinking consumption, declining imports and disappearing trade deficit. When people began to save, bank capital began to increase, production scale expanded, trade surplus appeared, and social wealth increased. Now we are applying this beautiful law. The difference is that our starting point is surplus and strong fiscal revenue, but our sense of crisis enables us to prepare for this war without smoke. So our rational regression is a high starting point. Today, the situation in China is different from that in Japan. We are a development model characterized by the government leading the major policy of economic development, the state concentrating resources on key areas, export-oriented, and high savings for the people. "With China characteristics" is the best explanation: in response to the economic bubble, we used the meditation luck method of China Kung Fu, internal strength therapy and Chinese medicine conditioning, and refused to let foreign doctors operate with knives, because it was possible that he would perform major surgery on you but refused to give blood transfusion. I think the bubble will be squeezed out and inflation can be controlled, but the development speed will slow down. We should not be misled by different economic theories, but should have our own judgments and responses: First, we should believe that the RMB will not depreciate internally in the long run. When inflation is controlled, cash is very valuable. In the future, when the state cuts interest rates to stimulate investment, whoever has cash will have the opportunity. Don't believe the saying that it is a fool to keep money in the bank or hold it in your hand. 2. Reasonable debt ratio. It is normal to adjust for two or three years. It takes time for gods from all walks of life to return to their places, people's savings to increase, and it takes time to rationalize the liquidity of the banking system. In addition, the pressure of earthquake relief and post-disaster reconstruction in Sichuan is so great at present. During this period, it is difficult to earn money, so we can only cut expenditure, reserve energy and be ready to go. Third, the value preservation and appreciation of real estate have not changed in the long run. Real estate first meets the housing needs, then the value preservation products, and then the investment products. The possession of fixed assets is the possession of resources. As long as it can meet the reasonable cash flow and debt ratio mentioned in the previous two points, real estate can be held as much as possible.