10 in June, according to the all-media monitoring platform of steel information, after entering June, the "high temperature and rainy weather" in the south increased, and the downstream demand was difficult to release continuously. The off-season effect of steel products has gradually emerged, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the market has not changed. In addition, traders are cautious, and small and medium-sized steel mills mainly ship goods, so the domestic steel market fluctuated weakly this week.
However, with the gradual narrowing of the profit margin of steel mills, some enterprises may reduce production efficiency, and it is expected that production reduction and maintenance will increase accordingly, which will alleviate the local supply pressure. In the current situation that destocking has not accelerated, there is limited room for short-term steel prices to fall. At present, the factors of "restraining" and "supporting" the market price coexist, and the operation of the steel market will enter the stage of "high opening and low walking" and "low support" alternately complementing each other in the near future.
On the whole, it is predicted that the overall price trend of China steel market this week (June 10- 14) will be dominated by "shock consolidation". We have a relatively neutral evaluation of the market next week-blue warning. Specifically, the Nishimoto Steel Index will run in the range of 4 100-4220 next week.
Nishimoto steel index
This week, the price of building materials in Shencheng will show a "downward shock" trend. As of June 6th, the Nishimoto Index reported 4 180, down 20% from last weekend. In the same period, the representative specifications of high-quality third-grade rebar in Shanghai were reported at 3960 yuan/ton, down by 30 yuan/ton compared with last weekend; On the other hand, the representative specifications of Shanghai high-quality snails are quoted at 4,200 yuan/ton, down by 30 yuan/ton compared with last weekend.
Market feedback, after entering June, the market demand was repeated, and the price of Shencheng building materials fluctuated and weakened this week. Last weekend, the leading steel mills in East China issued a new price policy with a flat tone and some compensation. As far as the current market price is concerned, the upside-down range is large, the business losses are serious, and the market sentiment is very pessimistic.
The monitoring data in the first half of last week showed that the price of building materials in Shencheng continued to fall, with a cumulative drop of 40-50 yuan/ton. Futures snails stopped falling and rebounded after Wednesday. In addition, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday is coming, and the downstream stocking demand is released. The transaction situation improved obviously, the spot price stopped falling, and some low-level resources rose slightly 10-20 yuan/ton. However, for the later market, it is expected that merchants should be cautious. Once the late trading can't continue to be heavy, the price will fluctuate and weaken.
In the domestic market,
According to the transaction data monitored by Nishimoto Shinkansen, steel prices fluctuated and fell in most parts of the country this week. At the beginning of the week, domestic steel prices generally fell due to snail fluctuations and poor demand. Since the middle of the week, with the snail's rebound, the market mentality has improved, and the demand for stocking in the superimposed Dragon Boat Festival holiday has increased slightly, and most market prices have rebounded. The whole week's market showed a trend of falling first and then stabilizing.
Beijing market: In this cycle, the snail's decline slowed down and the shock was weak. Spot prices in Beijing market continued to fall, with an overall drop of 40-60 yuan/ton compared with last weekend. At present, the price of HPB300Ф 8-10 mm high-speed wire rod in Hebei Iron and Steel is 4720-4800 yuan/ton; HRB400e Ф12-Ф14mm small thread is 3980-4000 yuan/ton, HRB400e Ф16mm thread is about 40 10 yuan/ton, and HRB400e Ф18-. HRB400Ф 8-10mm snail offer 4 120-4 140 yuan/ton.
After the sharp drop in domestic steel prices last week, the downward trend weakened this week. In addition, due to the expected increase in terminal stocking before the holiday, the local leading steel enterprise Hegang held the guiding price at the beginning of June at the weekend, and so on, the decline in spot prices slowed down, and the inertia at the beginning of the week fell by 20-30 yuan/ton. Then, driven by the rebound of futures snails, the demand for terminals was released for many days, the spot price stopped falling and stabilized, and the trading volume was released. However, due to the increasing inventory pressure, merchants mainly ship.
In the second half of the cycle, snails weakened again, and panic reappeared in Beijing's local market. Merchants continue to reduce the price by 20-30 yuan/ton. Considering the current sluggish demand in the local market, increasing pressure on merchants' inventory and lack of confidence, it is expected that the Beijing market will continue to fluctuate and run weakly next week.
Hangzhou market: Hangzhou steel market fluctuated within a narrow range this week. The mainstream price of Shagang 16-25mm rebar in Hangzhou market is 4040 yuan/ton, and the resources with the same specifications as Yonggang, Zhongtian, Xinxing and Shente are 3960-4020 yuan/ton. The price of snail and wire rod of Yonggang, Zhongtian and Pinggang is 4290 yuan/ton; The price of qualified thread is 3880-3960 yuan/ton, and the price of wire rod and wire rod is about 4200 yuan/ton.
Last weekend, Shagang, Yonggang and Zhongtian successively announced new price policies: the flat and catch-up strategies have not changed. At the beginning of the week, faced with the influence of high prices of mainstream steel mills, declining market inventory and incomplete specifications of some resources, market prices showed resistance and a symbolic rebound; However, the good times did not last long, and the market price weakened again after Tuesday.
It is not difficult to see that since last Wednesday, the snail contract has stopped falling and rebounded, and end users have a small amount of stock before the Dragon Boat Festival. The low-priced resources in the market are in good condition, and the mainstream prices are relatively stable. Based on the increase of high temperature and rainy weather in the later period, it is expected that the Hangzhou market will maintain a narrow range of shocks next week.
Guangzhou market: The price of building materials in Guangzhou market fell first and then stabilized this week. At present, the mainstream price of rebar Ф18-25mm HRB400e in Shaogang is 4 130 yuan/ton, while the price of HRB400e Ф18-25mm in Guangzhou Steel, Cold Steel, Yufeng Steel and Xiangtan Steel is 4070-4 130 yuan. The mainstream price of HPB300Ф 6-10 mm high-speed wire rod in Shaogang is 4290-4340 yuan/ton; The price of high-speed wire rods of the same specification in Guangzhou Iron and Steel Group, Zhuhai Iron and Steel Group and Xiangtan Iron and Steel Group is 4140-4,260 yuan/ton. The price of Ф 8 ф8- 10 mmhrb 400 snails in Xiangtan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and Pinggang Co., Ltd. is 4320-4360 yuan/ton.
According to market feedback, snails fluctuated and fell on Monday, and the prices of major domestic markets were lowered one after another, and the quotations of merchants everywhere fell overall; From Tuesday to Wednesday, driven by the rise of black futures, market prices gradually stabilized and some businesses tentatively rebounded; On Thursday, leading steel mills held up prices and the market quotation remained unchanged.
In terms of inventory, the total inventory of Guangzhou sample warehouse this week was about11110,000 tons, down 93,200 tons from the previous period and up 29,800 tons from the same period last year. Among them, the inventory of rebar was 827,000 tons, down 72,000 tons from the previous week; Coil inventory is 354 1 10,000 tons, which is 21.20,000 tons less than the previous week.
It is reported that the decline in inventory in Guangzhou market is mainly due to the lack of advantages in local prices and the decrease in the inflow of foreign resources, which is not caused by the amplification of demand. On the one hand, due to the recent thunderstorm weather in Guangdong, the project construction is limited and the demand is difficult to improve; On the other hand, materials from other provinces arrived less, and social stocks declined steadily. On the whole, the contradiction between supply and demand in Guangzhou steel market is not prominent, and steel intelligence predicts that the price of the whole steel market may continue to "consolidate" this week.
Steel mill price adjustment
This week, the ex-factory price of domestic building materials rose and fell, with East China falling first and then rising, while North China, South China and Southwest China mainly lowered. Specifically, the prices of leading steel mills in East China were generally flat in the first half of June. Although there is a large margin, the market upside down is still serious. In the second half of the week, with the improvement of the transaction, the spot price rebounded slightly, and the ex-factory price of the surrounding steel mills rose slightly.
raw material
Domestic raw material prices fluctuated mainly this week, with some falling. Among them, billet and scrap steel are slightly loose, and iron concentrate and coke are generally flat.
Billet market: The price of billet in the domestic market fluctuated downward this week. From the market point of view, from the end of May to the beginning of June, billet traders were relatively cautious. Faced with the sharp decline in the futures market and the continuous weakening of finished products, dealers increased their sales efforts, and the market quotation gradually fell in the shock.
After last Tuesday, as the finished product market stopped falling and stabilized, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the billet market was strong, and the market quotation rose slightly again. On Thursday, the price of billet fell again, because the price of finished products was weak again. "Iron and Steel Information" predicts that the billet market price in China will be dominated by "shock and limited space" this week.
Coke market: coke prices have been running smoothly this week. On the one hand, the mood of coke enterprises is high, and on the other hand, the voice of steel mills is rising and falling, and both steel and coke are playing a game. On the supply side, the overall construction of coke enterprises is at a high level. Except for the limited production of coke enterprises in Hejin and Hancheng areas, the rest areas in Shanxi Province are basically stable, and the severity and sustainability of the environmental protection situation in the later period remain to be seen.
At present, coke enterprises generally maintain low inventory. On the demand side, the arrival of steel mills has stabilized recently, and the overall inventory has shown a slight upward trend. In the later stage, it is still necessary to pay attention to the accumulation speed of steel coke enterprises and the trend of steel prices. Under the influence of domestic steel prices and futures shocks, it is expected that coke will not continue to rise, and the domestic coke market will continue to operate smoothly next week.
Scrap market: Scrap prices fell slightly this week. Domestic steel prices are weak this week. Affected by this, although the domestic scrap market demand is still strong, the market mentality has weakened. Some steel enterprises reduced the consumption of scrap steel due to sharply narrowed profits, and the price of scrap steel in North China, Shanxi and South China fell 10-30 yuan/ton.
At present, the production capacity of steel mills is still at a high level, and the supply and demand of scrap steel are relatively balanced, but the mentality of traders is weakened and the delivery rhythm is accelerated; In addition, the profits of steel enterprises have been greatly reduced, and the maintenance has increased accordingly, which continues to suppress the price of scrap steel. Considering that the current steel price is weak and the scrap price is under great pressure, it is expected that the domestic scrap market will fluctuate weakly this week.
Iron ore market: Iron ore prices fluctuated and consolidated this week. In terms of domestic mines, the price of domestic mines remained firm this week. Recently, ore futures contracts have fallen, and the finished product market is weak. Most steel enterprises purchase on demand, and the domestic mining market is holding steady. It is expected that the market price of imported minerals will be adjusted back at a high level this week. Judging from the market situation, imported mines rose to a new high last week. With the continuous decline of the finished product market, the interests of steel enterprises have further narrowed, and the resistance of steel enterprises to high-priced imported mines has increased. The activity of spot trading in ports has declined.
At the same time, iron ore futures have been falling continuously since last Tuesday, and the short selling power on the disk is strong, and the confidence of imported miners is insufficient. Some merchants took low-price promotions to cash out, which made the imported mine market show a high callback this week. It is expected that the market price of imported minerals in China will be "weakly shocked" this week.
Shipping market: On June 5th, the Baltic Dry Freight Index (BDI) closed at 1 14 1 point, up by 45 points or 4. 1% compared with the same period last week. On May 3 1 day, the comprehensive freight rate index of China coast (bulk cargo) released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange closed at 1092.5, down 3.6% from May 24.
On June 5, the freight rate index of coal goods released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange closed at 728.6 points; The freight rate of Qinhuangdao-Shanghai (40,000-50,000 dwt) route is 27 yuan/ton, which is 0. 1 yuan/ton lower than that of June 4; The freight rate of Qinhuangdao-Guangzhou (60,000-70,000 dwt) route is 3 1.2 yuan/ton, which is 0.3 yuan/ton lower than that of June 4th.
On June 4th, the freight index of coastal metal ores closed at 786.03 points, down 33.36 from the previous period. "Steel Intelligence" predicts that the BDI index is likely to be dominated by "high volatility" in the coming week.
supply and demand
On June 10, the data of Xiben Shinkansen trading platform was inquired, showing that the demand performance was better last week: at the beginning of the week, the merchants were in a bad mood and the market turnover was not good due to the drop of snail futures. In the middle of the week, snails stopped falling and rebounded. In addition, as the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaches, the downstream stocking demand is released and the transaction performance is picking up.
After entering the middle of June, the off-season effect of local markets gradually appears, especially in the southern region, which will usher in a hot and rainy season. It is expected that downstream demand will be difficult to release continuously. At present, most manufacturers are more cautious about the market prospects, fearing further weakening of demand.
Judging from the inventory situation, Shanghai rebar inventory decreased by 0.63 million tons this week compared with the previous week; According to the national inventory statistics, the rebar inventory in major cities in China decreased by 1.23 million tons, and the wire inventory decreased by 53,800 tons. The rebar inventory of major steel mills in China increased by 27,200 tons on a week-on-week basis, while the wire inventory decreased by 330,000 tons on a week-on-week basis.
Although the social inventory still declined last week, the decline was significantly narrower than that in previous weeks, while the inventory of rebar steel mills increased, which indicated that the downstream demand release was further weakened after entering June. However, there is no obvious inventory accumulation at present. In June, the overhaul of steel mills increased, and the local supply pressure may be alleviated to some extent.
According to the latest data of China Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises in mid-May was 2.038 million tons, down 0.78 million tons from the previous ten days and 0.38% from the previous month. By mid-May, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was12.683 million tons, an increase of 225,000 tons compared with the end of the previous decade, and an increase of 1.8 1% from the previous month.
Comprehensive viewpoint
After entering June, the high temperature and rainy weather in the southern region increased, the downstream demand was difficult to release continuously, the off-season effect gradually appeared, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the market remained unchanged; Coupled with the caution of traders, small and medium-sized steel mills mainly ship goods, so the domestic steel market fluctuated weakly this week.
However, with the gradual narrowing of the profit margin of steel mills, some enterprises may reduce production efficiency, and it is expected that production reduction and maintenance will increase accordingly, which will alleviate the local supply pressure. In the current situation that destocking has not accelerated, there is limited room for short-term steel prices to fall.
At present, the factors of "restraining" and "supporting" the market price coexist, and the operation of the steel market will enter the stage of "high opening and low walking" and "low support" alternately complementing each other in the near future. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic steel price trend will be dominated by shock consolidation next week. We have a relatively neutral evaluation of the market next week-blue warning. Specifically, the Nishimoto Steel Index will run in the range of 4 100-4220 next week.