It is determined by four factors, namely, the supply of (1) soybean meal; (2) Consumption of soybean meal; (three) the impact of the prices of related commodities and substitute commodities, and (four) the relevant agricultural, trade and food policies.

(A) Soybean meal supply

1. Soybean supply

As a by-product of soybean processing, the supply of soybean directly determines the supply of soybean meal. In general, the increase of soybean supply will inevitably lead to the increase of soybean meal supply. There are two main sources of soybean, one is domestic soybean and the other is imported soybean. Northeast China and Huanghuai area are the main soybean producing areas. In recent years, the annual soybean output in China hovered around 6.5438+600,000 tons, of which the commercial soybean output was about 6 million tons. In 2008/09, China imported more than 40 million tons of soybeans.

2. Soybean price

Soybean price directly affects the production cost of soybean meal. In recent years, many large domestic crushing enterprises have chosen imported soybeans as processing raw materials, and the impact of imported soybean prices on domestic soybean meal prices is more obvious.

3. Soybean meal output

The current output of soybean meal is a variable, which is subject to factors such as soybean supply, expected annualized income of soybean crushing, production cost and so on. Generally speaking, the output of soybean meal is inversely proportional to the price of soybean meal. The greater the output of soybean meal, the lower the price. On the contrary, the output of soybean meal decreased and the price of soybean meal increased.

4. Soybean meal inventory

Soybean meal inventory is an important part of total output, and the amount of early inventory reflects the tension of supply. If the supply is insufficient, the price will rise, and if the supply is sufficient, the price will fall. Because soybean meal is difficult to preserve, once the stock of soybean meal increases, the price of soybean meal tends to decrease.

(2) Consumption of soybean meal

China is a big consumer of soybean meal. In recent years, soybean meal consumption has maintained an annual growth rate of more than 13%. Soybean meal accounts for 52% of poultry in the feed industry, so the price of livestock and poultry directly affects the feed demand. In general, there is an obvious positive correlation between the price of livestock and poultry and the price of soybean meal. Statistics show that more than 90% of soybean meal consumption is used for various feeds, so the prosperity of feed industry has a very obvious impact on soybean meal demand.

(3) The influence of the prices of related commodities and substitute commodities.

1. Price relationship of soybean meal, soybean and soybean oil

Soybean meal is a by-product of soybean. About 1 ton of soybean oil and 1 ton of soybean meal can be squeezed out for every 65,438+0 tons of soybean. The price of soybean meal is closely related to the price of soybean. Generally speaking, the annual soybean yield will affect the price of soybean meal. When the soybean harvest is good, the price of soybean meal will drop, and when the soybean harvest is bad, the price of soybean meal will rise. At the same time, there is a certain correlation between soybean oil and soybean meal. When the price of soybean oil is good, soybean meal falls, soybean oil is unsalable, soybean meal output decreases and soybean meal price rises. The crushing benefit of soybean is one of the important factors that determine the supply of soybean meal. If the crushing efficiency of oil plants has been depressed, some manufacturers will stop production, thus reducing the market supply of soybean meal.

2. The influence of soybean meal replacement price

In addition to the influence of soybean, soybean oil and other related commodities on the price of soybean meal, soybean meal substitutes such as cottonseed meal, peanut meal and rapeseed meal also have a certain influence on the price of soybean meal. If the price of soybean meal is high, feed enterprises will often consider increasing the use of alternatives such as rapeseed meal.

(4) Relevant agricultural, trade and food policies.

In recent years, avian influenza, mad cow disease and foot-and-mouth disease have occurred one after another, and more and more countries have implemented new food policies because of the impact of genetically modified foods on human health. The implementation of these new food policies has a direct impact on aquaculture and soybean meal demand.