Title: Technical Analysis of Securities Investment (2nd Edition) (Economic Management Course Textbook, Financial Series; 2 1 century course materials)
ISBN: 730004856
Author: Wu Xiaodong
Press: Renmin University of China Press
Pricing: 28 pounds
Page count: 0
Release date: February 2004-1
Version: 1
Format: 16
Packaging: flat plate
Introduction: Technical analysis is an important magic weapon for securities investment analysis. K-line combination with a long history and various forms will provide investors with the best local intervention point. The golden section plays a great role in judging the starting point of price trends. More than a dozen patterns of reversal and persistence in practice can accurately describe the price "situation". The mysterious wave theory once made some predictions that were incredible at first but later came true. The same mysterious calendar cycle theory also has a good performance in the market. Thousands of technical indicators around the world will show the market behavior of securities and the psychological change process of investors from all aspects.
order
Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have gone through a difficult 10 year in the ups and downs, belonging to the stock market with short running time. In the past 10 years, investors have experienced many thrilling market changes, the ups and downs of the stock market and the long wait. As a witness to the history of 10, I have witnessed some people get rich overnight in the stock market, and I have also seen more people spend a lot of time and energy in the stock market but get nothing. Despite this, the charm of the stock market remains undiminished. The number of newly opened investors has now exceeded 50 million, and it continues to attract talents from all walks of life to join it.
The stock market is like the sea, seemingly calm on the surface, but it will set off stormy waves at any time. If you don't take enough equipment to sail, you will undoubtedly fall into a sea of misery. In the storm of the stock market, the most important equipment is the ability to analyze the market.
The investment analysis of the market is the most important work for investors after entering the market, and it is necessary. It is necessary to judge the present situation and future of the market according to the data and information in hand, and then decide the investment strategy. According to popular parlance, securities investment analysis is mainly basic analysis and technical analysis. Both of them have "evolved" in the global stock market 100 years, and each has made brilliant achievements. Every [[〖HK〗] has many faithful believers, so it's hard to tell them apart.
Believers of the basic analysis school believe that the stock price can truly reflect the operating state and efficiency level of the company, and the abnormal fluctuation of the stock price is only temporarily affected by the emotional instability of speculators. Once the market passion passes, the price will naturally return to the value that can reflect the company's fundamentals.
Believers in the technical analysis school believe that the contents contained in the basic analysis are also included in the graphics of technical analysis. Because before the macro-economic and corporate fundamentals actually appear, sensitive social phenomena have begun to stir up, triggering a variety of chain reactions, gradually spreading subtle information changes to all levels of society, making investors' behavior adapt to these changes spontaneously, and reflecting them on the technical graphics of the stock market will cause corresponding changes in prices and trading volume, so the technical graphics have the function of reflecting the fundamentals in advance. In addition, the ultimate goal of investors to invest in the stock market is to care whether the stock price they invest in has changed, not what happens specifically. Through technical analysis, savvy investors can take countermeasures before things happen and take the lead.
Users of technical analysis sometimes find that technical analysis contains a kind of "natural force", because many examples prove that once technical analysis detects the clue that the market is about to change, naturally, something or some unexpected news will happen in the external environment at that time, which will prompt the stock market to complete and realize the expected transformation of technical analysis. This coincidence is incredible, but it does happen around us, and people can only think that it has been subjected to a "natural force."
In China stock market, the application of technical analysis and fundamental analysis will encounter huge "disadvantages". At present, the basic analysis is limited to the expectation of the country's macro situation, the ponder of principles and policies, and the analysis of the company's financial statements. Because the current market information is asymmetric, the company's financial statements also have many unsatisfactory places. On the one hand, the asymmetry of information will make ordinary investors at a disadvantage and unfair competition compared with "well-informed insiders" in obtaining information; On the other hand, a large amount of public information that investors can easily obtain contains many false elements. This kind of falsehood does not refer to the wrong data or fabricated facts published publicly (after all, there are fewer and fewer people with courage), but refers to the use of information advantages to deliberately arrange the way, time and content of information release to achieve the purpose of manipulating stock prices. This kind of thing often happens, so I won't list them here. I'm sure readers will understand. This is the current reality of China stock market. Although sad, investors must face it.
In my opinion, for most ordinary stock investors, at least for now, technical analysis is relatively "available" in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Of course, technical analysis will also encounter various "disadvantages" in actual use. We will be hit by wrong breakthroughs and wrong signals, or we will fall into the trap of technical charts. However, the "discriminating ability" of technical analysis is stronger than that of basic analysis. There are two main reasons for this: first, the technical analysis of its own characteristics; Second, investors in China are relatively dependent on technical analysis.
Because the information of China stock market is incomplete, it is often meaningless to make a basic analysis based on the publicly disclosed information, otherwise it will be misled. Of course, this is only a possibility that not everyone will encounter, but with this possibility, the credibility of the basic analysis will be greatly reduced, and the average investor can't afford this risk. Then, for most ordinary investors, since they don't have an advantage in obtaining information, are they doomed to be arbitrarily slaughtered by those who use information advantages to manipulate stock prices? ? The answer is no, are investors fair before describing the technical surface of price and volume changes? Yes, or? To be fair. When conducting technical analysis, if you choose a longer technology? Charts, the same? It is easier to avoid the "chart trap" when considering various technical analysis methods. Technical analysis? These features? Can the location help investors interpret the information hidden under technical figures and technical indicators? Undercurrent surging, noisy? How do investors feel about the characteristics and price of stocks without knowing any news? General trend? Can it be clear that investors can get rid of the game with bookmakers or well-informed people? The original? First, build a position, seek initiative, and use flexible advantages to stay away from others in the market. "How much should it cost to be trapped in a listed stock? It is impossible to say clearly with a number. Even if its "value" is obtained through basic analysis methods, it is only the present value, not the future value. The stock market is not a simple comparison of the value and return of 1 to 1, but a market that may produce many "bubbles" or excess profits. If no one is willing to buy at a higher price, even if the value of the stock seriously deviates from the value analyzed by the basic analysis, the price will not rise. Most stock holders are not "consuming" their own stocks now, but because this stock ticket may bring him benefits in the future. What they care about is the future value of the stock. Technical analysis considers the market performance of stocks, cares about the "interest" of investors in stocks, and cares about whether anyone is willing to buy their own stocks at a higher price in the future. In this sense, technical analysis has certain advantages.
Once investors who participate in stock market trading enter the market, the conditions for making trading strategies will be restricted by external factors, and the means and methods of analysis will also be influenced by others. After arriving at the sales department, there are several newspapers and "Qianlong" or other analysis software. The analysis process and final trading strategy of investors will inevitably be influenced by these east and west to a considerable extent. As we know, the main function of analysis software is technical analysis. Being unfamiliar with stocks, the appearance and meaning of lines in technical graphics in software are often remembered by newcomers as the Bible. If mass investors believe and follow the route of technical analysis, the effect of technical analysis will be more "magical".
Of course, in China's current stock market, there is a third way to decide trading strategy, and that is "seeking information", which is the characteristic of China market. However, more than 95% of investors have found "second-hand goods" with delayed or even false news. The practical experience of many investors proves that the method of relying on information is only suitable for very few people, and with the improvement of market supervision, this method will gradually lose its existing environment.
This book is a comprehensive introduction to technical analysis methods, basically involving all technical analysis methods. It should be noted that although the examples listed in the book are all from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, technical analysis methods can be applied not only to the stock market, but also to many other trading markets, such as foreign exchange market and futures market.
Technical analysis methods are mostly imported. Chinese mainland's own technical analysis method is mainly reflected in the invention of many new technical indicators according to the characteristics of the China market. Due to trade secrets, the calculation method of new technical indicators has not been made public.
This book has seven chapters and two appendices. From chapter 1 to chapter 7, six kinds of technical analysis theories are explained and introduced in detail, and the generation and development process of these theories, specific calculation and operation procedures, applicable conditions and places prone to problems are described in detail. In addition, the design principles of these methods are expounded from the perspectives of psychology and physics. Finally, each method is accompanied by one or more examples. These examples are real cases from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, from which we can see in detail the application process of each method facing the actual situation.
Appendix 1 introduces a complete trading system RTS. RTS proposes a completely "mechanical" trading method. When to buy, when to short, when to make up the position, when to sell and when to stop the loss are all clearly stated in this system. A complete transaction process can be completed through RTS. Because there is no short selling system in China at present, and there is no leverage problem, this book does not introduce stop-loss technology which plays an important role in controlling risks. However, readers can initially understand some technical analysis of stop loss from the operation of RTS. The purpose of this book is to provide readers with more comprehensive information. In the process of learning, you will encounter many practical problems and need further study. Like most disciplines, technical analysis is endless. There will be new things in the securities market that we need to know constantly.
Because the history of China's securities market is too short, the technology about cycle is not fully reflected in this book, which is also one of the shortcomings of this book. There are many analytical methods about periodicity in Gann's theory. What this book has not covered is the portfolio, the criteria for evaluating the success or failure of transactions, and the optimized screening system, all of which are "world-class". In this regard, the author himself has only some preliminary ideas at present, and it is not appropriate to write these immature ideas into this book. This aspect will be introduced in related books in the future.
Experience at home and abroad tells us that the result of securities investment is that most people fail and a few succeed. Making a correct investment decision involves many aspects, and the specific investment behavior involves far more than technical analysis. Technical analysis is only a part of it, or a very important part. From the author's point of view, three factors are needed to get a successful transaction: the first is the investor's personal talent; The second is the analysis and judgment ability of individual investors; The third is luck.
Talent refers to whether an individual's personality is suitable for securities investment. Natural psychological endurance and ability to respond to market phenomena belong to the category of personal talent. Sometimes talent can also be understood as a feeling of the market. The ability of analysis and judgment refers to the ability to analyze, study, summarize and finally apply market phenomena. This ability can be continuously strengthened over time. Luck means good luck or bad luck, which is a reality.
This book aims to explore the technical analysis methods related to China stock market. With the development of computer technology, technical analysis software is increasingly popular. This book is very suitable as a reference book for investors with analytical software, whether they are individual investors or institutional investors. Many examples in the book can be extended beyond the stock market and even the whole world, not just China. The theory of technical analysis can be generally applied to any freely traded market.