However, another thing that worries farmers has come again. With the intensification of domestic soybean meal supply, feed prices have soared again, and domestic soybean meal futures prices have climbed to a record high and may continue to rise.
The spot price of domestic soybean meal has risen to 5430 yuan/ton, which may impact 6000 yuan/ton. It can be said that the fourth wave of feed price increase has not passed, and the feed price increase in The 5th Wave has gone up again. What should farmers do?
Some farmers even admit that the current pig price is very low. Sometimes the pig's long meat is not as valuable as expected, and other costs have not been counted. The mentality of farmers has also changed, and even some pigs in pig farms have not eaten enough.
The main reason for the recent frequent price increase of feed is that the prices of various feed raw materials have generally risen sharply. Under the dual influence of the current "Russian-Ukrainian conflict" and "domestic epidemic", it is expected that corn, soybeans and other raw materials will maintain a volatile upward trend, and feed prices will also show a strong trend. As a result, just a few days before the last price increase, a new wave of feed price increase in the feed industry struck again: feed enterprises such as Haida, Aohua, Tongwei and Xiangda started to raise prices on March 25th.
Many feed factory leaders also said that whether feed prices will continue to rise depends entirely on raw materials. If the price of raw materials rises further, the price of feed is bound to rise accordingly. In addition, because of the large price fluctuation, the feed factory currently has a low stock of raw materials.
According to the analysis of many insiders, at present, the bulk raw materials have not peaked, the reduction of soybean production in South America is a foregone conclusion, farmers are reluctant to sell because of rising food prices, and the epidemic has affected logistics and the breeding season in the second half of the year. It is expected that the prices of corn and other commodities will continue to fluctuate and rise, so everyone should be psychologically prepared in advance.
At present, it can be said that the number of live pigs is still at a high level, and the feed cost is still rising. The risk of blindly reluctant to sell is very great. Because of the current overcapacity of pigs and weak terminal consumption, it is difficult to provide sustained impetus for the rise in pig prices. As the price of live pigs turns from rising to stabilizing, the live pig market is likely to return to the old road. Farmers are affected by rising costs, and their pessimism is fermented. Due to the strict control measures in many places, the consumption of catering in many cities is limited, the downstream traders in the wholesale market are slow to stock up, the surplus of white pigs in the market is increasing, and consumption is obviously suppressed. It is expected that in this situation, the pig price may struggle in the "low sideways".
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs has increased by 6 and decreased by 5 to 15, and the stable area accounts for 58% of all the monitoring, so the overall live pig market is in a trend of "stable and fluctuating".
# Pig price #
(Source: Pig Price System)
On the whole, today's pig market presents a certain stalemate compared with yesterday. However, due to the increasing wait-and-see mood in the market, the market is dominated by sideways weakness in the downturn of supply and demand. After all, epidemic prevention and control in many places has certain restrictions on supply and marketing. Considering that the pig production capacity of farmers continues to be overstocked, feed expenditure continues to rise, farmers' sentiment of slaughter is gradually enhanced, and the market still has the risk of panic, so the recent pig price market situation is still not optimistic. The later production capacity will aggravate the performance of the bottom of the pig price. It is suggested that farmers should stop losses properly before the pig industry recovers and strengthen the cash flow management of pig farms to avoid being caught in a dilemma.
Judging from the wholesale prices of white pigs in Beijing and Shanghai, the prices of white pigs in the wholesale markets in Beijing and Shanghai showed a downward trend, and the prices of white pigs in Beijing market fell by 0.5 yuan/kg, which made the market trading enthusiasm poor. The average transaction price in Shanghai market has declined, and the market is greatly influenced by local COVID-19. Many markets have stopped trading, the price of white bars in northern producing areas has stabilized, and the enthusiasm of traders for receiving goods has decreased.
Judging from the difficulty of purchasing slaughter enterprises, it is still difficult for slaughter enterprises in some areas to purchase at low prices, and many enterprises are affected by epidemic factors. Some enterprises in Northeast China have recently stopped slaughtering, and the whole market has reached a deadlock, which is greatly affected by the market. The overall adjustment of the market is weak, and the pig price adjustment of the group pig farm is weak. It is obviously more difficult for breeding groups in Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan and Chongqing to sell pigs, and the export volume of pigs in most leading group provinces has decreased.
Market trend of live pig prices tomorrow: Based on the analysis of recent factors in the live pig market, it is predicted that the live pig prices will show a trend of "sideways and weak decline" tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the live pig market and grasp the market dynamics.