Influence on the fluctuation of stock index
Some people think that because of the prevalence of speculation in China stock market, it is difficult to change the speculative psychological tendency quickly after the introduction of stock index futures, and short selling stock index futures will aggravate the stock index fluctuation. However, a large number of empirical studies abroad show that the existence of stock index futures usually does not increase the fluctuation of stock index. The reason why the fluctuation of stock index is sometimes increased is that stock index futures have the function of price discovery, which can improve the reflection mode of spot market to market information.
Some people also worry that the stock index may fluctuate abnormally on the maturity date. The statistical analysis of Hong Kong Futures Exchange shows that there is no significant difference between the volatility of stock index futures with term and without term.
Influence on the liquidity of the stock market
In the early days of share price index futures, an emerging market, there will often be a transaction transfer effect, that is, attracting funds from the stock market to the stock index futures market, thus greatly reducing the trading and liquidity of the stock market. This happened to the Japanese when they first came to share price index futures. However, there is another function of stock index futures, which is to attract off-exchange funds. As stock index futures provide investors with a tool to avoid risks and expand their choice space, share price index futures trading will attract a large number of off-site wait-and-see funds to substantially intervene in the stock market, and in addition, it can reduce the accumulation of funds in the primary market. Therefore, the impact on stock market liquidity depends on the relative size of the two effects. The situation in the United States is that after the opening of stock index futures trading, the trading volume of stock market and futures market has been greatly improved, showing a two-way promotion trend. Judging from China's situation, because large institutional investors such as open-end funds, social security funds and insurance funds do not participate in or only partially participate in the stock market, and bank deposits are increasing, OTC funds can be described as huge. Therefore, the author believes that the introduction of stock index futures in China is expected to increase market liquidity.
Influence on market structure and operation concept
After the introduction of unified index and stock index futures, new changes will take place in the market structure and investment concept. First of all, on this basis, we can further create new financial instruments, such as index funds and futures options. Three years after the Kansas Futures Exchange introduced the value line index futures on 1982, the compound index fund appeared in the United States. Secondly, China's traditional banker's stock trading mode may change slowly, and the value investment concept based on hedging will get more recognition and practice.
Impact on brokerage business
Brokers may enter the stock index futures market through brokers and dealers, which means that the expansion of business scope and the increase of income sources will also have a certain impact on the traditional business of brokers. After the mainstream investment concept in the market gradually changes to value investment, investors' demand for information and research will increase. Therefore, for the brokerage business, the current low-level competition focusing on attracting customers will be replaced by comprehensive competitive advantages such as talent, information and service innovation. The quality and professional level of employees in securities companies will determine whether brokers can retain customers and expand customers in the new market environment; In addition, for proprietary business, more quantitative analysis and risk control may be needed at the same time of investigation, including using stock index futures to avoid systemic risks reasonably; For underwriting business, in view of the great correlation between new shares and market trends, when the trend is good, the issue price of new shares can be set higher, and most of them perform strongly; When the general trend falls, the general issue price is set low and the trend is weak. With stock index futures, weak securities firms can hedge new shares by reverse operation and avoid some underwriting risks.